Twitter Files and Lula’s popularity could boost pro-Bolsonaro action

Scheduled for April 21st in Rio de Janeiro, the new act in support of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) could make hundreds of thousands of protesters return to the streets in defense of the former president, who is being investigated for an alleged attempt to coup d’etat. Bolsonaro must use the act to contest the accusation that he prepared a draft of a coup. But other factors should help him fill the demonstration, including rising food prices and the Twitter Files scandal, which highlighted evidence of censorship on social media.

The last protest of this type took place on February 25, on Avenida Paulista, in São Paulo. On that occasion, statements by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) comparing Israel’s war to Nazism helped motivate more people to join the demonstration. Bolsonaro used the event to call for an “eraser in the past” to be erased and for those accused of crimes during the acts of January 8, 2023 to be amnestied. He implied in a speech that his consultation on a possible declaration of a State of Defense or Siege after the 2022 elections would be within constitutional legality.

After the act, new investigations by the Federal Police tried to link the former president to an alleged coup attempt, mainly stating that he had presented an alleged draft State of Defense decree to commanders of the Armed Forces to promote a breakdown of order. institutional.

For this month’s protest, Bolsonaro must try to deconstruct this narrative. Furthermore, the rise in food prices, the Twitter Files case and Lula’s drop in popularity could contribute to broad popular participation. The event is scheduled to take place in Copacabana, in the South Zone of the city of Rio de Janeiro, at 10 am.

The conflict between minister Alexandre de Moraes and tycoon Elon Musk, owner of “X” (formerly Twitter), moved the opposition base to protest against the minister’s stance and his inquiries conducted at the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and the Court Superior Electoral Officer (TSE). Despite not mentioning Moraes, the pro-democracy speech is being used by Bolsonaro’s allies by sharing the video of the former president calling for the demonstration. The reading made by analysts is that the fight between the billionaire and the minister is likely to gain momentum.

As one of the former president’s closest allies, senator Magno Malta (PL-ES) assesses that the audience will be made up mostly of the same people who attended the previous event in February: evangelicals and citizens concerned about freedom of expression.

“We will take to the streets for our freedom. That’s what’s at stake. The same audience that was at the last demonstration, which is against drugs and abortion, will also be there. I have no doubt it will be a sea of ​​people”, said the parliamentarian.

For federal deputy Carlos Jordy (PL-RJ), “arbitrariness has gained notoriety and scope never seen before”. He also states that “the world now knows about the tyranny and political persecution carried out against adversaries”.

In the opinion of deputy Maurício Marcon (Podemos-RS), the accusations made by Musk “give support” to what the opposition knows about the behavior of the STF minister.

The complaints they refer to are emails and internal data from X (formerly Twitter) that show that Brazilian authorities, such as the TSE and the Public Ministry, pressured employees of the social network between 2020 and 2022 to provide user data and suspend accounts without adequate legal basis. The requests openly violate principles of privacy and freedom of expression.

Leader of the opposition in the Senate, senator Rogério Marinho (PL-RN) stated that the former president is representing the population’s desire against the Supreme Court’s stance.

“The people who go to the demonstration seek to protest for freedom. Former president Bolsonaro became a symbol of this fight against the investigations led by Alexandre de Moraes, which have been going on for five years”, said the parliamentarian.

Pro-Bolsonaro demonstration will be another test of the opposition’s strength

Political scientist Elton Gomes, professor at the Federal University of Piauí (UFPI), assesses that the conflict between Musk and Moraes and Lula’s drop in popularity make the demonstration a moment in which Bolsonaro and the opposition can once again show their power of popular mobilization .

“The opposition is now experiencing a strategic moment. Faced with the scandal generated by Twitter Files, food inflation, the fall in popularity of the President of the Republic and internal splits in the PT, the opposition is experiencing a political moment that can be very fruitful, if it knows how to exploit it politically. With the government weakened, Bolsonaro’s group needs to show once again its mobilization power”, assesses the political scientist.

Such as People’s Gazette previously showed, Bolsonaro is expected to hold demonstrations in the five regions of the country: North, Northeast, Central-West, Southeast and South. In addition to Rio de Janeiro, the former president also plans an event in Joinville, a municipality located in the northern region of the state of Santa Catarina, but he did not disclose the next steps in his schedule.

Political scientist Adriano Cerqueira, from Ibmec in Belo Horizonte, understands that the escalation of the conflict between the STF and Musk, a businessman from South Africa who has North American citizenship, could overcome the defense of former president Bolsonaro as the theme of the demonstration.

“Musk is appearing as a teacher of freedom of expression and becoming a victim of attacks by the STF. I think that this conflict could be the main fuel for the demonstration scheduled by the former president”, said Cerqueira.

Lula’s popularity in falling and rising food prices will catalyze protest

Another aspect that can be explored by the opposition is the government’s performance in containing the rise in food prices. Despite signs of economic improvement, with emphasis on the 2.9% growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023, the increase in food prices recorded in the first two months of this year is assessed by analysts as a relevant factor for Lula’s performance. in research.

According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), this year alone, in January and February, the increase in food prices reached 2.95% – more than double that recorded by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA). ).

The popularity crisis led Lula to meet with ministers, on March 18, to demand actions and handovers of portfolios. According to a survey by Data Politics published on March 27, 47% say they “approve” of the government and 45% say they “disapprove” of the PT’s management.

The rates equal the margin of error, plus or minus two percentage points. The survey was carried out between March 23 and 25 via calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 2500 interviews in 202 municipalities in the 27 federation units.

“We still have a lot to do, in all areas. And a lot of it isn’t strange at all, it’s everything we committed to doing during the electoral dispute. We have already spent one year and three months of our mandate and you realize how little we have done and, at the same time, how much we have done. I doubt anyone could do it if it weren’t for the individual effort of each one of you”, Lula told his ministers during the meeting.

Political scientist Juan Carlos Arruda, CEO of the Ranking of Politicians, states that food inflation, Lula’s declining popularity and network regulation, which was once again on the agenda in Congress after the Twitter Files case, could create a growing scenario of popular mobilization.

“It is evident that Lula’s approval is no longer the same as before. In addition to the challenges faced on the international scene, such as the slippage on certain issues, the lack of concrete achievements and the intensification of the debate on the regulation of large technology companies, these will certainly motivate demonstrations in the streets with an even greater energy than previously seen. in February,” said Arruda.

He added: “These factors combined are creating an environment of growing dissatisfaction and mobilization among the population, which is increasingly attentive and active in relation to these issues.”

Demonstration also aims to boost Ramagem’s campaign

In addition to bringing together supporters around a national agenda, the demonstration called by Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro could also serve to boost the candidacy of deputy Alexandre Ramagem (PL-RJ) in the capital of Rio de Janeiro. By replacing General Walter Braga Netto in the dispute, Ramagem appears in second place in the electoral polls.

According to the latest survey by the Real Time Big Data institute, published on March 25, current mayor Eduardo Paes leads voters’ preference in the stimulated survey with 40% of voting intentions. Ramagem appears with 13%. The difference has been questioned by PL members, as the difference is 27 percentage points and former president Bolsonaro had more votes than Lula in 2022 in Rio.

In the second round, Bolsonaro received 1,929,209 votes, equivalent to 52.66% of the city’s total. Lula (PT) was the choice of 47.34% of voters and received 1,734,159 votes

On the other hand, those around the former president see the need to reinforce the parliamentarian’s campaign because Paes is counting on the support of Palácio do Planalto for his re-election.

Methodology

One thousand people were interviewed in person using a structured questionnaire, using Real Time Big Data, between March 22nd and 23rd, 2024. The research was contracted by 3 Poderes Mídia e Comunicação Ltda. Confidence: 95%. Margin of error: 3 percentage points. Registration with TSE nº RJ-04917/2024.

Why Gazeta do Povo publishes electoral research

A People’s Gazette For years, it has been publishing all voting intention surveys carried out by the country’s main public opinion institutes. Voting intention surveys provide a current reading, based on representative samples of the population.

Interview methods, sample composition and number and even the way a question is asked are factors that can influence the result. That is why it is important to pay attention to the information on methodologies, found at the end of the articles on electoral research.

Research published in the last elections, for example, highlighted relevant discrepancies in relation to the result presented at the ballot box. Having made these notes, the People’s Gazette considers that electoral polls, far from being a prediction of the outcome of elections, are an information tool available to the reader, as the published results have the potential to influence decisions by parties, political leaders and even the mood of the financial market .