See dollar quotation today (16) – 08/16/2023 – Market

The dollar opened lower this Wednesday (16), while the market awaits the release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting (the US Copom), which will provide details on the Fed’s decision (Federal Reserve, the US central bank ) to raise US interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in July.

The American currency also retreated against most of the other currencies abroad, amid news that China will act to boost the country’s economic growth, which reduced concerns about the slowdown in activities that had been contaminating business in recent days.

At 9:30 am, the dollar fell 0.16%, quoted at R$ 4.978.

“The big event of the day will be the FOMC minutes. The market should look to the document looking for clues about what are the real chances of a new interest rate hike by the Fed, and how far we are from a cut”, said the Guide team Investments this morning.

The market’s current bet is that the interest rate hike cycle in the United States has come to an end, with most traders betting on a rate cut in early 2024. For now, the Fed should keep US interest rates unchanged.

On Tuesday (15), the Brazilian Stock Exchange recorded its 11th trading session followed by a fall, pressured by low prices from Vale and Eletrobras. The Ibovespa retreated 0.54% this Tuesday (15), ending the session at 116,171 points.

The dollar rose in Brazil and abroad, still supported by the slowdown in the Chinese economy, and ended the day quoted at R$4.986, up 0.43%.

This Tuesday’s negotiations were contaminated by economic data released by China, which came in worse than expected. Retail sector sales in the country in July rose 2.5% from the same period a year earlier, while economists polled by Reuters had expected a 4.5% rise. Chinese industrial production rose by 3.7%, against a forecast of 4.4%.

After the industrial production data, China decided to cut the country’s interest rates to stimulate the economy. Some analysts say, however, that more support will be needed, and the pressure for new government stimulus is gaining strength.

In the United States, meanwhile, retail sales last month performed stronger than forecasts, but the increased strength of the retail sector fueled market bets that the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US central bank) may keep the country’s interest rates at high levels for longer.

With that, the main American stock indices fell: the S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq retreated 1.16%, 1.02% and 1.14%, respectively.

In this scenario, the dollar had another day of high against currencies of emerging countries and exporters of commodities. Compared to other major currencies, the US currency has remained stable.

On the Brazilian stock exchange, Vale continued to put pressure on business and recorded a 1.26% drop amid fears about China, even on a high iron ore day abroad.

Eletrobras was also one of the main casualties, with a drop of 3.54% after its president, Wilson Ferreira Junior, resigned on Monday night (14). In a statement to the market, the company reported that the board of directors elected Ivan de Souza Monteiro as the new CEO, but did not explain the reasons for the sudden departure of his predecessor.

The biggest drop, however, was Gol, which sank 12.50% after suffering a buy recommendation cut by Citi. Azul appears soon after, with a decrease of 6.59%, and losses from Petz (4.66%), CVC (3.44%) and Méliuz (3.75%) complete the ranking of the biggest falls of the day.

On the positive side, Petrobras shares rose and mitigated the drop in the index. The oil company’s preferred shares, which were the most traded in the session, rose 0.52% after the company announced a rise in gasoline and diesel prices.

The measure was seen positively by the market, as members of the sector pointed out that the values ​​practiced by Petrobras were out of date with the international market, in the midst of a rise in oil prices, which caused fears about possible interference in the company’s price policy. company.

In futures markets, yield curves recorded slight increases, impacted both by retail data from China and by the increased perception that the Fed may raise interest rates in the US. The contracts for 2025 went from 10.45% to 10.50%, while those for 2026 went from 9.98% to 10.02%.

With Reuters