Rice begins to fall in price in the field and rises less at retail – 01/23/2024 – Vaivém

Food inflation, which was 1% at the beginning of December, reached 1.64% in the second four weeks of January (last 30 days until the 15th). Rice and beans weigh at this rate.

The good news for the consumer is that the rise in rice lost pace this month, but that in beans accelerated. The most recent data from Fipe (Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas) indicate a 7% increase in rice prices over a 30-day period, below the 7.6% at the end of December.

Beans, which had falling prices in November, rose 12% this month.

The rise in prices of the two basic items in the daily diet of most Brazilians is due to the period of reduced supply of products, which causes a struggle between producer and buyer. The rice harvest is delayed and will only arrive in greater volume from March onwards.

According to Vlamir Brandalizze, the entire cereal chain remains under pressure, from producer to retail. This dispute keeps prices at up to R$140 per bag, depending on the quality of the product.

Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics) indicates average prices of R$125 per bag in Rio Grande do Sul, pointing to the fourth consecutive drop in recent days.

In the supermarket, a five-kilo package ranges from R$28 to R$40, a price that should remain high due to payments to Bolsa Família participants and the need to replace products on the shelves, says Brandalizze.

The beans are just beginning to be harvested and supply is still restricted. The buyer tries to lower prices, but the producer resists negotiating at lower prices, which puts a bag of carioquinha in the range of R$300 to R$390, depending on the classification of the legume.

According to the analyst, however, there is already a downward trend in prices.

The farmer is already preparing for the second harvest, but is still worried about the possible occurrence of pests. Delays in soybean harvest transfer whiteflies from this crop to beans, requiring more care and higher costs for producers.

The rise in rice prices is also related to the foreign market. World production will be 513 million tons, a record volume, but initial stocks for the 2023/24 harvest are 4.1% lower than the previous one.

As a result, the total supply of rice will be 689 million tons, 3.5% lower than in 2022/23, according to the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture).

China, the world leader in production and consumption, has reduced the cereal area to 29 million hectares and will produce 145 million tons, which will cause a reduction in the Asian country’s final stocks to 102 million.

India, which produces 132 million tons, will also have its final stocks reduced to 33 million, the same happening with Thailand and Indonesia, countries that stand out in world production.

In Brazil, the planting area rose 6%, to 1.57 million hectares. Production grows 7.2%, reaching 10.8 million tons, according to the latest data from Conab (National Supply Company). The federal agency will reevaluate this data at the beginning of next month.

Prices do not have much room to fall, as supply and demand are adjusted in Brazil in the coming weeks. The scenario repeats itself in the international market.

Bean Paraná’s first bean harvest drops to 176 thousand tons, 12% less than the previous year, according to the state’s Deral (Department of Rural Economy).

Beans 2 In the second, producers increase the planting area, and the volume to be produced is expected to reach 585 thousand tons, 22% more than in the previous harvest, according to the Paraná organization.

Sugar Last year’s exports rose to 31.4 million tons, according to Secex (Secretariat of Foreign Trade). During the period, average prices reached US$502 per ton, the highest value since 2012.

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