Palmeiras: favorite to take the Brazilian title – 11/24/2023 – Sport

With four rounds left until the end of the Brazilian Championship, Palmeiras emerges as the main favorite to win the cup for the second year in a row.

With 62 points and the isolated leader, Alviverde only depends on itself and now has a 53% chance of being the champion of the national tournament, according to projections from the Mathematics Department at UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais). Until the 34th round, this percentage was 45.4%.

Champion in 2022, Palmeiras grew in the final stretch of the championship driven by great performances from young Endrick, who even received his first opportunity in the main team.

The recent poor performance of Botafogo, second placed with 61 points, which still appears with a 23.8% probability of winning the cup, was also fundamental to the rise of Abel Ferreira’s team.

The recent retrospect of General Severiano’s team, however, does not allow us to envisage a glorious outcome for Tiago Nunes’ men. The team’s last victory was more than a month ago, when they beat bottom side América-MG 2-1, on October 18th.

Since then, Botafogo has gone on a run of seven games without winning. They drew with Athletico-PR (1-1) and lost to Cuiabá (1-0), Palmeiras (4-3), Vasco (1-0) and Grêmio (4-3).

In the 34th round game, another draw, this time against fellow title contender Red Bull Bragantino (2-2). And on Thursday night (23), in a delayed game of the 29th round, in which they had the chance to overtake Palmeiras, another draw, with Fortaleza (2 to 2), which meant that the team no longer depended on just on your own legs to be champion.

After the draw against Fortaleza, Tiago Nunes sought to demonstrate confidence in the fight for the title, but already recognizing the possibility that the team would not be able to finish in the lead.

“Since I arrived at the club, the talk has always been that we are going to be champions. The player’s mentality is shielded, protected. Botafogo has already succeeded, regardless of the outcome [do campeonato]”, said the coach.

Flamengo, which gained new momentum with the arrival of Tite, has been biting close behind and could overtake its rival from Rio in the next round.

In a delayed game of the 30th round, the red and black team beat Bragantino 1-0 this Thursday and reached third place, with 60 points. According to UFMG projections, Flamengo now has an 8.4% chance of winning the title.

Since the former coach of the Brazilian national team took charge of the team, replacing Argentine Jorge Sampaoli, the Rio de Janeiro natives have won five of the eight games they played, with great performances from Uruguayan midfielder Arrascaeta.

Tite arrived about a month ago with the speech that the priority was a direct place in the 2024 Copa Libertadores. After the last round of the Brazilian Championship, however, the coach from Rio Grande do Sul already sees the title as a real possibility.

“[O campeonato] it’s open. There are six teams that can be champions, go to the Libertadores or stay out of it. It’s a four-game championship,” he said.

Grêmio, fourth place, with 59 points, Bragantino, fifth, also with 59 points, but with two fewer victories than Renato Gaúcho’s team, and Atlético-MG, sixth, with 57, are still alive in the race for cup.

However, although they still have mathematical chances, the probability of the trio winning the title is small — 7.3%, 6.4% and 1.1%, respectively.

To arrive at the estimates, UFMG mathematicians take into account the history of wins, draws and defeats of each team in the championship. Based on these results, they carry out a series of simulations that indicate which teams are most likely to beat their rivals in the next duels, also considering who is the host of the match.

Palmeiras, Botafogo and Flamengo play their last match away from home

In the fiercest Brazilian Championship since the adoption of the model in 2003, the competition for the cup promises to remain open until the last round.

Palmeiras faces Fortaleza, at the Castelão arena, and then faces the already relegated América-MG, at home.

Alviverde’s last two matches in the championship will be against the Libertadores champion Fluminense, whose field control is Palmeiras, who still don’t know if they will be able to play the match at Allianz, and against Cruzeiro, at Mineirão.

Former player Ronaldo’s team is in 16th place in the league table, just one above the relegation zone, and must reach the 38th round while still fighting to avoid falling back to the second division.

Botafogo, in turn, faces three teams in the next rounds that are still fighting to stay in series A – Santos, 14th place, Coritiba, 19th (practically relegated, with a 99.9% chance of falling), and Cruzeiro. In the last round, they face off against Internacional, in Porto Alegre.

Flamengo faces América-MG and Atlético-MG from Minas Gerais, and Cuiabá. It ends its participation in a repeat of the Copa do Brasil final, facing São Paulo, at Morumbi.