Lula is expected to suffer new defeats in Congress with vetoes being overturned

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is expected to suffer new defeats in the National Congress with the possible overturning of vetoes on matters approved by parliamentarians, in a joint session of the Chamber and the Senate that should be held before the end-of-year recess.

There are a series of vetoes to be considered by deputies and senators, four of which are the most critical for the government: the vetoes to the time frame, the payroll tax exemption, the fiscal framework and the law that reestablished the “qualifying vote” of the Carf. There is intense mobilization in Congress to overthrow at least the first two.

Overturning the veto on the time frame is a priority for the Parliamentary Agricultural Front (FPA) and center-right deputies and senators. The bill, approved in the Chamber and the Senate, establishes the date of October 5, 1988 as a time frame for the demarcation of indigenous lands. Based on this thesis, the cession of areas in favor of the indigenous people would only be valid for lands that were already inhabited by the tribes on the date of promulgation of the Constitution.

Lula vetoed this central section of the proposal approved by Congress, relying on the most recent decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), which considered the time frame thesis unconstitutional. It is worth remembering that this same Court decision started a non-partisan movement in Congress against judicial activism and the STF’s interference in matters within the competence of the Legislative branch. The mobilization prevented sessions of both the Chamber and the Senate from being held, delaying votes and complicating the approval of important matters for the allied base, such as economic guidelines to increase government revenue.

The 2nd vice-president of the agribusiness bench in the Chamber, deputy Evair de Melo (PP-ES), states that the Parliamentary Agricultural Front is working to overturn the presidential veto on the time frame. According to him, “there is no type of agreement” to maintain Lula’s veto on the project, which is so important for the sector.

There was an expectation that vetoes against the time frame would be overturned last week, but the Congress session was postponed. The president of the FPA, deputy Pedro Lupion (PP-PR), guaranteed that the delay “does not change anything” the bench’s purpose in voting to overturn the vetoes.

The reason for postponing the session was the disagreement between party leaders in Congress regarding the vetoes of the fiscal framework and Carf. And the discussion about Lula’s vetoes promises to become even more truncated due to the president’s recent full veto of the project that extends the payroll exemption for 17 sectors of the economy, which costs the government around R$9.4 billion per year. year. The decision was criticized by businesspeople, unions and parliamentarians.

“There is an expectation that the Congress session will take place on Thursday, but it has not yet been officially called. For our part, we want it to happen as soon as possible, especially so that we can overturn Lula’s vetoes on the framework and the time frame” , said the leader of Novo in the Chamber, Adriana Ventura (SP).

Session to analyze Lula’s vetoes should take place before the recess

The National Congress session to analyze 34 presidential vetoes should take place after the return of the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), to Brazil. He is accompanying Lula on an official trip to the Middle East, where they will participate in COP28, the United Nations Convention on Climate Change.

According to the government leader in Congress, senator Randolfe Rodrigues (AP), who spoke with Pacheco before the trip, the date should be defined after voting on the government’s economic agenda, which seeks to increase revenue and thus be able to meet the target. zero deficit; and the analysis of the names of Flávio Dino for the STF and Paulo Gonet for the Attorney General’s Office (PGR).

Considered one of the main behind-the-scenes problems, President Lula’s full veto of the payroll tax exemption for 17 sectors, which would allow an increase in the government’s cash flow, should also be analyzed in the session, amid the dissatisfaction of both the affected sectors and deputies and senators, who approved the matter.

Randolfe states that the government will work to maintain the veto, at the same time as it raises the possibility of an alternative created by the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, to convince parliamentarians about the importance of fiscal balance and meeting targets.

“Fernando Haddad has already opened negotiations with economic sectors. Certainly, as negotiations begin to mature the proposal, [ele] You can invite members of Parliament to carry out this dialogue so that we have a proposal that is constitutionally acceptable, validated”, said Alexandre Padilha, Minister of Institutional Relations.

However, the leader of the opposition in the Chamber, deputy Carlos Jordy (PL-RJ), guarantees that the veto is in the sights of parliamentarians, who will not accept the government harming the sectors that employ the most in Brazil.

For Jordy, “Lula wants to break Brazil with deficit and unemployment. We will overturn this veto.” The leader also stated that “the veto on the extension of payroll tax relief is a veto on employment.”

Another parliamentarian unhappy with the president’s veto on exemption from company payrolls is Lieutenant Colonel Luciano Zucco (Republicanos-RS). In the deputy’s opinion, “the federal government’s veto of the payroll tax relief policy is another serious error by the economic team, we will certainly have negative repercussions on the hiring of workers in the 17 sectors benefiting from the measure”.

The author of the proposal to extend payroll tax exemptions, deputy Efraim Filho (União-PB), also hopes for the vetoes to be overturned, counting on the support of parliamentary groups, such as entrepreneurship, which has more than 200 parliamentarians, including deputies and senators. This Tuesday, around ten parliamentary fronts presented a manifesto in favor of overturning Lula’s veto on the extension of the benefit.

“With it being scheduled until the end of the year, we have the number to overturn the veto. Around 10 parliamentary fronts are defending the overturn. It seems to me that December 15th would be the ideal date”, said Efraim Filho to the newspaper The globe.

Parliamentarians can also override vetoes on economic matters

In addition to barring points in the projects regarding the time frame and tax relief, Lula, in his desire to increase his cash flow, also vetoed part of the fiscal framework that prevented the government from proposing new exceptions to the primary result target in the Budgetary Guidelines Law, which , in practice, would allow programs such as the new Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) to remain outside the fiscal limits.

If the veto on this section is maintained, the government will have an easier time meeting the fiscal target, while shielding public works from contingencies and having less need for bargains with the Chamber and Senate.

“The vetoes to the framework, in particular, provide an opportunity for the return of the make-up of public accounts and for an even greater increase in spending in the coming years. Of the expenses and the hole, which only grows. We cannot accept this return to the past They need to be overturned as soon as possible”, said deputy Adriana Ventura (Novo-SP).

Among the vetoes considered most controversial that should be analyzed by parliamentarians are also points that deal with Federal Revenue compliance programs, and incentives for taxpayers, within the scope of the Carf project. One of them allowed incentives for taxpayers who settled their accounts with the tax authorities, such as reducing fines and interest and even eliminating the fine in certain cases.

For the government, these sections of the law are contrary to the public interest and unconstitutional. The opposition, however, works to maintain them.

Analysts consider that the base will not have the strength to maintain Lula’s vetoes

Juan Carlos Arruda, from Ranking of Politiciansrecalls that even after handing over positions and making concessions to centrist parties, to increase the allied base in Congress, Lula has not been able to overcome barriers to win favorable votes on several issues, and considers that the vetoes mark yet another phase of setbacks for Lula .

“An example of this is the payroll tax exemption, an agenda widely supported by several parliamentary fronts and considered consensual in the National Congress. In this case, the government will face defeat, as it was unable to prevail in the discussion.”

Political Science professor Adriano Cerqueira, from the Federal University of Ouro Preto, also says that Lula’s vetoes on the time frame, exemptions and also on parts of the fiscal framework and Carf projects should not be maintained by Congress.

“Everything indicates that these vetoes must be overturned, as there is a strong mobilization in Congress.” For the analyst, the overthrow shows that Lula will continue to have great difficulty approving matters of interest to the government and maintaining a stable allied base in the National Congress.