CPIs start in Congress and the government will suffer wear and tear

Before completing half of the first year of government, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) will attend this week the opening of the season of parliamentary commissions of inquiry (CPIs), each capable of causing damage at different levels of intensity to the image and losses for the evolution of its projects.

For this Wednesday (17th) the work of three CPIs is scheduled to begin in the Chamber of Deputies: manipulation of football games by electronic betting, fraud at Lojas Americanas and actions by the Landless Rural Workers Movement (MST). The joint commission of senators and deputies (CPMI) is also expected to be set up in parallel to investigate the acts of vandalism on January 8th. See below for more information on each of the CPIs.

Analysis of experts and politicians consulted by the People’s Gazettecombined with the observations of parliamentary leaders and ministers responsible for articulating the Planalto in Congress, indicate the need for considerable effort to prevent the CPI from leading to a loss of popularity and support in the congressional base, as well as to avoid delays or even defeats in crucial votes to the government.

During the meeting of the Planalto political core on Monday (15), Lula showed that he understood the unfavorable situation in Congress for the government. He took measures to contain turmoil caused by his own party’s bench in the Chamber in the negotiations of the new fiscal framework, which is essential for the continuity of social policies. The project’s rapporteur, Deputy Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA), has also made it clear that the proposal’s approval requires the unconditional support of the entire government base.

The vote on the government’s spending control mechanism, scheduled for this week, is important for government stability. Tax reform is also relevant, although its impact is not immediate. The mere mention of progress in the proposed framework has already had a positive effect this week on the exchange rate and stock markets.

Greater risk for Planalto is the delay of central projects

Luiz Filipe Freitas, a political analyst at Consillium consultancy, points out that the CPIs are always harmful for any government. When several work at the same time, the challenge becomes even greater. “In addition to the impact on reputation, these committees consume precious time, especially when we are in the middle of the year and discussions about the 2024 Budget begin”, he says.

According to him, even the CPMI of January 8, which tends to be more favorable to the Executive due to the government majority among its members, will require energy and articulation, resources that are also being requested on other fronts in Congress. Formally created on April 26 with the reading of its request for opening in a session of Congress, the mixed commission does not have a deadline to be installed, but should move forward by the end of May.

Senator Espiridião Amin (PP-SC), 75 years old, likely dean among the members of the CPMI on January 8, should therefore be responsible for chairing the first session of the collegiate, in which the president and rapporteur will be elected. For him, the keynote of the investigations will come from information provided by federal intelligence agencies to members of the CPMI. The clarifications should, he emphasizes, shed light on “criminal omissions” that resulted in the vandalism and, thus, identify “all those responsible”.

For political scientist Marcos Deois, the CPMI of January 8 is still the biggest unknown for the commissions of inquiry under way. “No one guarantees a certain predictability. There are facts that will be remembered, new agents will be held accountable and developments against and in favor of the government are expected”, he evaluated.

As for the MST CPI, he shares the general impression that the collegiate tends to serve as a stage for opposition parliamentarians, “as it will enhance more extremist narratives”.

Deois also understands that the CPI on Sports Betting tends to provide an investigation that is better based on facts and revelations already made. This investigation gained even more relevance after the publication of a betting scheme involving football players, which is being investigated by the Public Ministry of Goiás in the operation Penalidade Máxima. Athletes from different clubs and divisions of Brazilian football would have received money to force cards and commit penalties. “Each day that passes, we see a new player involved. If the CPI does a good job, it may even dismantle a probable complex scheme of corruption in sport, which is a national passion, [o futebol]”, he highlighted.

Compensation for land invaders expands rupture with agribusiness

Political scientist José Amorim believes that the CPIs will be yet another test of Lula’s governability, especially that of the MST, the most awaited by the opposition at the moment, in addition to the CPMI on January 8th. “For a government whose popularity is lower than expected, having to face CPIs right at the beginning of the mandate is a very high risk”, he observes.

In his assessment, one of the indications that the PT government did not want to take these risks was that it accelerated the release of funds held back for parliamentary amendments. This reaction may have been late or insufficient. “Although the government has a majority in the CPMI and the opposition runs the risk of suffering losses in it, the chance of erosion for the Planalto remains high due to the simple exposure favored by the collegiate”, he said.

For the CPI of the MST, a collegiate dominated by the opposition, Amorim agrees that the great effort of its members will be to constrain the government. In a previous response, Lula and his ministers have repeatedly shown support for the movement of land invaders over the last few days, amplifying the attrition with agribusiness. “In addition to the risks to the government’s image, it is possible that the CPIs disrupt the legislative agenda, including the fiscal framework and tax reform”, he adds.

The government, however, has used the strategy of disdaining all the CPIs, including that of the landless. “Those who imagine that this CPI will be a space to reach the MST will shoot themselves in the foot”, said the Minister of Social Communication, Paulo Pimenta, last Sunday (14), at a fair for members of the movement.

The negotiations in the Chamber, under the articulation of Arthur Lira (PP-AL), are an important test for the new power relations between the Executive and the Legislative, while the Federal Supreme Court (STF) continues to play an important role in resolving impasses between the powers.

Lira reiterated in interviews on Monday (15) that the Lula government “needs to decentralize, trust and delegate power to improve its political articulation”. However, analysts point out that the management is still heavily influenced by the PT, which holds the main articulation positions, and seems reluctant to cede positions to other parties.

What should be investigated in each CPI?

Lojas Americanas CPI

The CPI of Lojas Americanas was requested by the leader of the PP in the Chamber, André Fufuca (MA), with the objective of investigating the accounting discrepancies registered by the retailer, which resulted in a billionaire gap.

The author of the application, who aspires to preside over the commission, emphasizes the need to clarify the circumstances of the so-called fiscal inconsistencies and inform the population about the company’s real situation, especially stock market investors.

As with other CPIs, it is expected that the two largest party blocs in the House will occupy most of the 34 seats in the collegiate.

Sports Betting CPI

Authorized on April 26, the Sports Betting CPI was initiated through the request of deputy Felipe Carreras (PSB-PE), a member of the governing base. Composed of 34 full members, the commission aims to investigate match-fixing in Brazilian football, according to complaints arising from investigations conducted by the Goiás Public Ministry (MP-GO) within the scope of the Maximum Penalty operation.

Initially, MP-GO investigated the manipulation of three games of the last round of Série B in 2022, but the revelations of the second phase of the operation have already reached athletes from Série A of Brazilian football. In addition, the CPI will also seek to press for regulation in the sector.

Deputy Felipe Carreras, who authored the request, will be the commission’s rapporteur, and André Figueiredo (PDT-CE) will chair it. Among the expected members, parliamentarians linked to sport stand out, such as Bandeira de Mello (PSB-RJ), former president of Flamengo, and former volleyball player Maurício de Souza (PL-MG).

MST CPI

Proposed in March by Deputy Lieutenant Colonel Zucco (Republicanos-RS), the MST CPI aims to investigate the activities of the Landless Rural Workers Movement (MST) in the first months of 2023, aiming to identify its true purpose and its financiers.

The commission will be composed of 27 full members, including parliamentarians linked to agribusiness, such as Alceu Moreira (MDB-RS) and Júlia Zanatta (PL-SC). Zucco, as the author of the proposal, expects to preside over the work, while the rapporteur should be in charge of Deputy Ricardo Salles (PL-SP).

CPMI of January 8

In addition to the CPIs in the Chamber, a CPMI composed of deputies and senators was proposed to investigate the acts of vandalism that occurred on January 8. This initiative was proposed by opposition deputy André Fernandes (PL-CE) and faced strong resistance from the government and the president of Congress, Senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), to be installed.

However, after the release of images of the Planalto invasion, which included the presence of the then Minister of the Institutional Security Office (GSI), General Marco Gonçalves Dias, parliamentarians from the government base began to support the CPMI. The application was approved on April 26 during a session of Congress.

The opposition, which is a minority, indicated names such as senators Eduardo Girão (Novo-CE) and Magno Malta (PL-ES), in addition to deputy Alexandre Ramagem (PL-RJ). The government representatives are led by deputies Rogério Correia (PT-MG) and Jandira Feghali (PCdoB-RJ), as well as by senators Fabiano Contarato (PT-ES) and Rogério Carvalho (PT-SE).