Congress prepares collection of defeats for Lula at the end of the year

The end of the legislative year looks unfavorable for the government, which foresees a series of defeats in votes in the coming days. Congress is moving forward with several initiatives that contradict the plans of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), in addition to imposing uncertainty about the fate of other projects. The removal of presidential vetoes and the review of ministerial ordinances, together with the resurrection of proposals rejected by the current administration and the imposition of new expenses, consolidate greater autonomy for the Legislature.

Both the Senate and the Chamber strengthen their position of independence, with their own agenda and increasing control over federal resources. In this scenario, the defeat most felt by the government imposed by parliamentarians involves the definitions of the Union Budget for 2024. The rapporteur of the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO), deputy Danilo Forte (União-CE), confirmed the establishment of a mandatory payment schedule of parliamentary amendments, restricting Planalto’s bargaining power.

“We are very much at the mercy of the government on duty to release amendments that often serve as bargaining chips in votes,” said the LDO rapporteur on Tuesday (21), during a meeting of the Parliamentary Entrepreneurship Front (FPE).

According to Danilo Forte, the amount reserved for individual amendments will be R$25.1 billion, in addition to R$12.5 billion for bench amendments. He also informed that he is considering taking resources from the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) to increase the financing fund for electoral campaigns. The government proposed R$939.2 million and the parties want to at least repeat the R$4.9 billion from the last election.

In another proof of the government’s weakness before Congress, deputies organized themselves to discuss the overturn of the rule that requires the consent of unions in agreements that allow work in commerce on Sundays and holidays.

20 legislative decree projects (PDL) were registered to suspend the Ministry of Labor decree, published last week. On Tuesday night (21), with the support of 301 deputies, the emergency regime was approved to vote on Luiz Gastão’s PDL (PSD-CE). The text would be voted directly in the plenary, without having to go through committees. But, fearful of defeat, the Lula government revoked the ordinance and scheduled a new attack on the issue for 2024.

Still in the field of Congress’s fight against the revisionism of the PT administration in relation to initiatives to modernize labor market rules, the Chamber plenary also approved on Tuesday night (21), with 286 votes in favor, the bill which makes the hiring of young people and the elderly more flexible along the lines of the “Green to Yellow Card” proposed by the government of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

The project, which must be vetoed by President Lula (PT), if it is subsequently approved by the Senate, offers benefits to companies that hire people aged 18 to 29 who have never had formal employment contracts or people over 50 who are outside of the job market and have not had a formal employment relationship in the 12 months prior to hiring.

Government is already waiting for its vetoes to be overturned on the time frame

In addition to the defeats in the LDO and in the labor area, the government is expected to suffer a blow with the analysis of presidential vetoes by the Congress session, scheduled for this Thursday (23). Planalto’s organizers are already counting on the vetoes on the time frame for the demarcation of indigenous lands being overturned, leaving the issue to be evaluated again by the Federal Supreme Court (STF). Meanwhile, government officials are fighting to maintain the vetoes on the fiscal framework project and the new governance for the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (Carf). These two vetoes are considered priorities for the government’s economic agenda.

One of the sections of the fiscal framework vetoed by Lula, which replaced the spending ceiling and was approved by Congress, prevented the government from removing “any expenses” from the calculation of the target stipulated for public accounts. “There is a chance that this veto will be overturned by Congress”, warned the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), back in September.

The many setbacks suffered by government leaders in the Chamber and Senate, and by the minister of institutional relations, Alexandre Padilha, are putting pressure on Planalto to reorganize its strategy in Congress. “The government’s model of relating to Congress is having difficulties. One must never forget that it is necessary to convince and that this applies even to the Planalto”, observes political scientist Leonardo Barreto, from the Vector Relations Governmental and Institutional consultancy.

In the Senate, the disapproval of the name nominated by Lula to head the Union’s Public Defender’s Office and the narrow victory in the vote on tax reform are examples that it is necessary to invest in persuasion. Even the approval of the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) 8/2021, which limits the individual powers of STF ministers, is seen as a sign of the weakness of the articulation.

Furthermore, another sign that reinforces this negative impression for the government came from the Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) on Tuesday (21), which postponed the vote on two projects to increase the Union’s revenue in 2024. The projects that change the taxation of high income, in foreign (offshore) and exclusive investment funds, and the sports betting market, were only approved on Wednesday morning (22).

Congress establishes new dynamics in its relationship with the government

In the view of João Henrique Hummel Vieira, director of the consultancy Action Government Relations, the tax reform was approved in the Senate by a narrow margin of favorable votes, not only due to its content, but also as a result of the new relationships established between the Executive and Legislative. “Now, the expectation falls on the Chamber and the Senate, which must ratify the proposal, marking Congress’s significant achievement in society,” he said. According to the political scientist, this effort reflects a new conceptual reality.

The main focus of the government’s negotiations with Congress revolves mainly around the LDO, whose decision will determine the presence or absence of a deficit in public accounts. “Achieving zero deficit with the payment of parliamentary amendments is a crucial challenge and the great agreement sought, especially in an election year. And this is conditional on viable sources to guarantee financing for these amendments,” he said. The realization of this scenario can transcend not only the fundraising package, but also involve the rationalization of expenses. “The new dynamic in the correlation of forces seems to indicate the maturation of the democratic system, now more linked to concrete commitments and tangible results”, observed Vieira.