Climate and meteorology: what’s the difference? – 01/25/2024 – Environment

If the increase in global temperature is real, why is it so cold in the Northern Hemisphere winter? Climate change and weather forecasts occur on completely different scales, up to centuries, instead of hours.

What is the climate?

Those who talk about climate and the environment refer to gradual changes in temperature over time, usually on a scale of decades or centuries. This is not about the hourly changes seen in the daily weather forecast.

Such changes can be natural, generated by solar activity or by volcanic eruptions such as that of Mount Tambora, in Indonesia, in April 1815: the ash and gases from the gigantic explosions blocked sunlight, lowering the global temperature by 3°C , average. Blizzards and frosts hit parts of Europe and North America from June to August 1816, in the dramatic “year without a summer”.

However, the most recent changes in the global climate were caused by humans and their way of life. Over the last 200 years, emissions of greenhouse gases — especially carbon dioxide (CO_two) and methane—produced by transportation, agriculture, heating and other activities—accumulated in the atmosphere, trapping heat and gradually warming the planet.

Climatologists associate the increase in emissions from fossil fuels with rising temperatures and more extreme weather conditions around the world. Recent analyzes from agencies such as the World Meteorological Organization and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Monitoring Service (C3S) confirmed that 2023 was, by far, the hottest year on record.

How does climate change affect meteorology?

The WWA (World Weather Attribution) group of scientific organizations uses real-world data and climate models to link climate change to extreme weather events across the planet. From the analysis of more than a dozen disasters in 2023, he concluded that fossil fuel emissions, which reached a record this year, are making storms, droughts, forest fires and heat waves more destructive and lethal.

For example, in a warming world, the hot and dry conditions that worsened Canada’s record fire season in 2023 are at least twice as likely, wiping out more than 18 million hectares of forest, roughly the equivalent of area of ​​Syria.

Climate change also increased the intensity of rainfall in Libya by up to 50% in September, according to WWA, being in part the cause of the catastrophic floods that left more than 3,400 dead.

If the Earth is warming, why is it so cold?

Despite higher average temperatures, certain regions still experience waves of biting cold. This is also related to the climate crisis. Extreme cold in Europe and North America has become more likely with the collapse of the polar vortex — the cold winds that circulate around the North Pole — and the weakening of the jet stream, both resulting from warming in the Arctic.

If the jet stream — the band of strong winds that circles the globe — begins to weaken, warm air from the tropics and glacial polar winds can shift, causing unusually warm weather or freezing blizzards thousands of kilometers away.

Why does climate change matter?

According to calculations by the United Nations, if the current trajectory continues, by the year 2100 greenhouse gas emissions will have raised the average global temperature by up to 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels. The world has already seen a rise of 1.4°C, with devastating meteorological consequences.

Even those who live in regions where the effects of climate change are not so extreme will be affected: intense migration, food prices and widespread global instability are all characteristics of a warming planet.