Chile is at risk of more deadly fires, says study – 02/22/2024 – Environment

Deadly forest fires like those that hit Chile and killed at least 133 people this month will become more likely in the region as the planet warms and becomes drier due to climate change, a study released on Thursday concluded. (22).

The fires were Chile’s deadliest natural disaster since a 2010 earthquake that killed around 500 people. Strong winds and high temperatures helped drive the fire’s rapid advance into populated areas around the cities of Viña del Mar and Valparaíso.

This new report, carried out by World Weather Attribution, an international group of scientists that studies the effects of climate change on extreme weather events, analyzed the increase in conditions that fuel fires —temperature, wind speed and atmospheric humidity—, according to measurements of an index called HDWI (Hot Dry Windy Index).

The research found that neither global warming nor the El Niño weather phenomenon drove the recent increase in HDWI during the fires, as that coastal region of Chile is actually cooling, while temperatures are rising in the interior of the country.

But that will change with global warming, scientists say.

“We expect many of these fires to occur in the future,” says Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.

Under the current global scenario of 1.2°C warming compared to the pre-industrial era, scientists said a four-day period with an HDWI similar to that seen during recent fires would be expected every 30 years.

“However, if warming reaches 2°C [em relação aos patamares anteriores à Revolução Industrial]the fire-prone climate is likely to become more intense around Viña del Mar and Valparaíso,” says Tomas Carrasco, researcher at the University of Chile and co-author of the report.

Temperatures are on track to rise by up to 2.9°C this century, based on current climate commitments, according to UN forecasts.

The report’s authors also highlight that urban growth and land use change were factors in the fires being so deadly.

Mauricio Santos, of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Center in Colombia, says the expansion of pine and eucalyptus plantations has destroyed natural fire barriers over decades, while urban areas encroach on forests.

“We found that the most devastating fires occurred in areas with significant changes in land use and where urban planning was inadequate,” says Santos, adding that better warning systems, evacuation planning and fireproof systems are needed.