Analysis: Polarization shuffles the election cards in SP – 03/11/2024 – Power

Datafolha’s new research on the electoral race in São Paulo shows the extent of the impact of the polarization that has plagued Brazil since the center-right organized itself around the radicalized pole embodied in Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in 2018.

The cards are quite mixed up, but their arrangement on the table suggests a more favorable scenario today in terms of purely electoral conditions for Mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB).

In a way, the tie recorded between the mayor and the candidate Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) shows in the research what the streets showed on February 25th, when thousands of Bolsonaro supporters went to Avenida Paulista: they were there not just for the trouble former president, but because of conservatism turned anti-PTism.

Nunes’ embarrassed bet on the side that is under fire from the courts, symbolized by her silent presence on the Paulista platform, should give way to greater leverage for the former president’s group in the municipal election.

Obviously, the risk for Nunes is given by the problems that Bolsonaro will face, probably being accused of an attack against the Democratic Rule of Law or something similar during the campaign. But even this has limits.

The electorate that follows charismatics, such as President Lula (PT) and Bolsonaro, tends to dismiss such accusations as mere political persecution. It was like that with the PT member, who spent 580 days in jail with a loyal fan base outside the Federal Police of Curitiba, only to return to Planalto afterwards.

Thus, the former president’s not inconsiderable achievements may, in the end, not affect Nunes so much. The strategy defended by his consultant Michel Temer (MDB) at Sheet last week fits in there. “He is after the Bolsonaro supporters, not Bolsonaro,” said the former president in Dubai.

It clearly remains to be seen how the electorate will behave in the face of the predictable wave of allegations of misdeeds by the Nunes administration, which are more palpable and less ideological. So far, there has been no effect.

A fierce dispute is shaping up, showing that the division of the electorate between PT and Bolsonarists repeatedly pointed out by Datafolha continues to dictate policy at various levels, despite the evident appeal of parochial issues, the proverbial hole in the street filled — the improvement in Nunes’ assessment corroborates the weight of it.

For Boulos, Datafolha is a blow to the water, particularly among his supporters who had been singing an early victory given Lula’s unprecedented engagement in his campaign.

They started from correct premises. Since the then PT member Luiz Erundina won the 1988 election, a biorhythm has been installed in the city: for every left-wing mayor, two are center-right. According to this pendulum, 2024 should crown the return of a leftist to the Chá viaduct.

The 2022 electoral design added to the reasoning, when Lula beat Bolsonaro in the second round in the capital by a margin somewhat greater than his general vote, scoring 53.45%.

The high rejection of the federal deputy, the price he pays for his radical image, is another bad news for his campaign. It is not a fatal rate, at 34%, but it has advanced compared to the previous survey, although it is not exactly comparable due to the different range of options available to voters.

The gains that were being rehearsed in sectors of Boulos’ campaign will have to be reviewed, as will the pessimism of allies in the broad front assembled around Nunes. The mayor is seen as a difficult-to-sell electoral product and the fear was that of a Geraldo Alckmin repeat in 2018, or a Rodrigo Garcia in 2022.

Significant in this scenario is the anemia of third-way options. The most promising in theory, Tabata Amaral (PSB), was left behind at the start, after showing in double digits last year. Kim Kataguiri (União Brasil) should not have subtitles.

It is educational how the tie between the leaders remains the same when he and the federal deputy leave the list of candidates. The curious case of Marina Helena’s (Novo) good performance, a likely voter confusion with Marina Silva, needs more time to be analyzed.

Tabata, an experiment by Alckmin in his attempt to compete for Bandeirantes in 2026, is for now squeezed by the election poles. In favor of her postulation is the fact that she loses nothing with the exposure, on the contrary: she is young, a product with “storytelling” potential and still quite unknown.

Neither side in the lead will do well, however, if they believe their fate is sealed, not least because surprises can always occur. But the only victory so far is polarization, to the smile of Lula and Bolsonaro, who remain as magnets of a divided country.