Datafolha points out technical draw between Nunes and Boulos in São Paulo

A survey by the Datafolha institute released this Monday (11) shows the current mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (MDB), technically tied with federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) in the 2024 electoral race for mayor of the capital. According to the survey, Boulos has 30% of voting intentions, while Nunes appears with 29%.

In third place, but very far from the first two, comes deputy Tabata Amaral (PSB) with 8% of voting intentions, followed by economist Marina Helena (Novo), with 7%; by deputy Kim Kataguiri (União Brasil), with 4%; and by the trade unionist Altino Junior (PSTU), which appears at 2%. Among those interviewed, 6% did not know how to give their opinion and 14% indicated a blank/null vote or for no candidate.

In terms of rejection, 34% say they will not vote for Boulos at all, while the current mayor, Ricardo Nunes, is rejected by 26% of voters.

In a simulation without Kim Kataguiri’s candidacy, Nunes appears with 30% of voting intentions against 29% for Boulos. In this scenario, Tabata Amaral appears with 9%; Marina Helena with 7%; and Altino Junior with 1%. Blanks and nulls total 16% and 7% did not know how to give their opinion.

In a third scenario without Tabata Amaral’s candidacy, in the hypothesis of unification of the left around Boulos’ candidacy, the psolist and Nunes appear with the same 33%. Maria Helena, from Novo, appears with 8% and Altino Junior scores 2%. Blanks and nulls total 17% and 7% did not know how to give their opinion.

Boulos has the support of President Lula (PT), with Marta Suplicy as vice-president, and Nunes’ candidacy is supported by former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). Representative Tabata Amaral has the support of the vice-president, Geraldo Alckmin (PSB).

In the spontaneous survey, Boulos appears with 14% and Nunes, with 8%. In this specific cut, released in August 2023 by Datafolha, Boulos appeared with 8%, while Nunes had 4%.

The survey released this Monday (11) also shows that Nunes and Boulos are technically tied in the knowledge rate. In total, 85% say they know the mayor of São Paulo and 83% say they know deputy Guilherme Boulos. Tabata Amaral has 53% knowledge and Kim Kataguiri is known by 33% of respondents. Marina Helena is known by 46% and Altino Junior by 24%.

According to the research, Boulos has the best performance among the elite. The psolist appears with 42% of voting intentions among people who have completed higher education; 41% among those who earn more than 10 minimum wages; 53% among public employees; 22% among those with primary education; 24% among those who earn up to two minimum wages; and 19% among evangelicals. Boulos also has more voters in the center (49%) and in the west of the capital (35%) and fewer in the north (27%).

Nunes, on the other hand, has 34% of preference among Catholics and 37% among evangelicals. It also appears with a preference of 35% among those with primary education and 25% among those with higher education; 30% among those who receive up to two minimum wages and 17% among those who receive more than 10 minimum wages. Nunes has more voters in the north (36%) and west (32%) and fewer in the center (20%).

Datafolha research methodology in São Paulo

The research released this Monday (11) was carried out with Datafolha’s own resources. 1,090 people aged 16 or over were interviewed in person in São Paulo on March 7th and 8th. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The registration with the Electoral Court is SP-08862/2024.