Where the danger of political polarization lies – 01/03/2024 – Maria Hermínia Tavares

Political polarization worries all those who aspire to a solid and stable democracy for the country. The memory of the invasion of Praça do Três Poderes by the Bolsonarist hordes, which will complete one year next Monday, serves as a warning about the risks of new attacks from the radical right. Getting around them requires clarity about the dangers of dividing Brazilians into “us” and “them”.

I recommend, as appropriate first of all, the last episode of 2023 of the podcast “Outside politics there is no salvation”, in which political scientist Claudio Couto (FGV-SP) interviews his colleague Antonio Lavareda (Ipesp), a recognized scholar of public opinion . Here I return to something from that fruitful conversation.

Political polarization is not exactly new. To a certain extent, it is induced by the two-round election for executive positions. In addition to reducing voters’ options to two in the second round, this system can induce them, in the first round, to narrow their choices to the best-placed candidates.

On the other hand, as political scientists Cesar Zucco and David Samuels have shown, the opposition between PT and anti-PT has been structuring the presidential contest for a long time. And, at least since 2006, it groups voters into two clear and stable camps.

What was new in 2018 was the rise, in the anti-PT pole, of a fascist leadership that took the place previously occupied by the PSDB, an acronym committed to democracy. This huge revolution in the right-wing condominium has widened the distance between the two poles and made the dispute between them harsher.

It is still too early, however, to say to what extent the Bolsonarist extreme right is lodged in the hearts of voters and how solid its leadership is in the field of anti-PTism.

Recent research by Genial/Quaest brings contradictory evidence about the degree of polarization in society. On the one hand, only 6 out of every 100 Bolsonaro voters — seven among Lulistas — say they regret their votes. Furthermore, what they did at the polls correlates with their assessment of the new government.

On the other hand, 15% of those who smothered the former captain give a thumbs up to the performance of their victorious opponent; A slightly smaller index believes that the government is on the right path and 25% of those say they are optimistic about the economy’s performance in 2024. Too early, therefore, to talk about calcified political identities.

In any case, since polarization is the work of leaders, its survival and intensity will depend greatly on Bolsonaro’s uncertain future and the right’s willingness to seek more civilized routes.

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