Venezuela’s invasion of Guinea tarnishes Lula for defending Maduro

Nicolás Maduro’s recent threats to invade and annex part of Guyana to his territory reveal the Venezuelan’s true face. For experts, the image of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) could be “tarnished” due to the PT member’s various efforts to try to defend the Venezuelan dictator.

Since taking office for his third term as president, Lula has moved to try to “clean up” Maduro’s degraded image. In May, during the South American Summit, the PT member received the dictator with the honors of head of state and made controversial statements in favor of the Venezuelan.

In the opinion of risk management and geopolitics specialist and co-founder of Arp Digital Consulting, Nelson Ricardo Fernandes, Nicolás Maduro’s recent threats place Lula in a delicate situation. “In my opinion, he loses prestige in Brazil. If the person is not fanatical about the PT’s ideological agenda, they will not buy this narrative [da invasão venezuelana]”, he points out.

In South America, Fernandes assesses that there may be greater wear and tear with countries more aligned to the right, which are likely to criticize Maduro’s moves against Guyana. “As for countries that have left-wing presidents, I believe there may be an attempt to “turn a blind eye”, not criticize or say nothing, as there is an ideological identification”, he assesses.

Despite Brazilian diplomacy’s attempts not to intervene in the conflict, Fernandes assesses that, in case of pressure on Lula to take a position on the situation between the neighbors, the PT member could end up “buying the Venezuelan narrative” – as he has done in other cases opportunities.

“Brazil, by historical tradition, has always been ‘on the fence’. We have neither the capacity to project power nor the appetite for it, as the United States and Russia do, for example. I can’t imagine Brazil picking a fight or going to war. If Lula is pressured, I think he will lean towards Venezuela, because there is an ideological identification”, assesses the expert.

He compares the situation to the position that Lula adopted in the face of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in which the Brazilian president ended up making statements that were in line with Moscow, which started the war after invading Ukraine in February 2022. For the expert, This is due to the ideological identification that Lula maintains with left-wing countries.

“Everything that refers to communism has always had an internationalist intention, which is above nationalism. So when he looks at Venezuela, he looks at this internationalist link. For now, Maduro has a narrative that is being sustained, 95% of people [na Venezula] who voted were in favor of this invasion. So, at some point, Lula will buy this narrative, even if it is a part of it”, she assesses.

Brazil pretends to place troops on the border to respond to Venezuelan threats

For the first time since the increase in tension between Venezuela and Guyana, Lula commented on the situation during a press conference in Dubai, on Sunday (3), and said that he expects “common sense” from the two nations to resolve the impasse. Last month, Lula, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mauro Vieira, and the special affairs advisor, Celso Amorim, spoke with representatives of the two countries to reach a consensus.

On the 22nd, Brazil held a summit with foreign ministers and defense ministers in Brasília and discussed tension on its border with leaders from Guyana and Venezuela. In an interview, Mauro Vieira stated that he hopes the situation will be resolved by “resolved through peace and fair negotiations”.

“Us [Brasil] We have already had border issues with nine neighboring countries and with all of them we have resolved our border differences through negotiation, and we have always been respectful of the agreements reached”, pointed out the Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs.

For analysts interviewed by the report, the chances of Brazil intervening actively – in the event of an escalation of tension – are low. Doctor in International Relations and researcher at Harvard University Vitélio Brustolin assesses, however, that the sending of troops from the Ministry of Defense to the Pacaraima region — Brazil’s main border with Venezuela — can be seen as a political “response” from the country to Maduro’s intentions.

Brustolin explains that the Essequibo region, which Venezuela wants to annex to its territory, is a forested area and has no roads. “It is an 800km stretch of border and there are no roads. For Venezuela to invade and try to occupy that region, the possible crossing would be the border with Brazil, but which is now reinforced with troops and under the supervision of the National Forces”, he states.

In recent days, the Ministry of Defense ordered an increase in troops patrolling the border region between the two countries. An additional 60 soldiers were assigned to the region, forming a force of 130 men. The reinforcement responds to a request from Senator Hiran Gonçalves (PP-RR), who requested reinforcement of troops in Pacaraima (RR). Furthermore, the Federal Police’s intelligence sector has been monitoring the region and will supply the government with reports that can support any decisions made by President Lula.

However, 60 more men are equivalent to just two platoons, which would not make any difference in dissuading or eventually intervening in an armed action by Venezuela. The soldiers were sent to the Pacaraima Special Fleet Platoon, whose sole function is to give a warning in a dangerous situation, but not to deal with a military threat.

Despite this, according to Hiran Gonçalves, the situation is absolutely peaceful in the cities of Roraima that border Guyana. He said he did not believe that Maduro would actually go to war against the neighboring country.

Dispute for territory

Guyana and Venezuela have faced moments of tension in recent months following threats from the Venezuelan dictatorship to annex the Essequibo region, located on the border with Caracas. The territory of Guyana has been in dispute since the 19th century, but, in recent months, Maduro has waged a strong campaign to gain support from its population in the decision to invade and occupy the region.

Last Sunday, the Venezuelan population voted in a referendum produced by the Maduro government and supported the decision to annex the area to the country’s territory. It represents 70% of Guyana and has reserves of oil, minerals and even uranium, as Brustolin recalls.

In power for more than 10 years, Nicolás Maduro follows the dictatorial and repressive line of his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. Accused of a series of crimes against human rights, of persecuting and murdering opponents, the Venezuelan autocrat is being investigated by the International Criminal Court. Furthermore, Maduro has also been accused of manipulating elections in his country so as not to step down as president.

The country’s next elections, scheduled for 2024, have been observed with caution by several international organizations and authorities. This year, during the country’s primary elections, candidate Maria Corina, the main name of the opposition, was considered “disqualified from running for office for 15 years”, following an announcement by the General Comptroller of Venezuela — a body that, due to the dictatorial regime , is governor for Maduro.

In addition to the economic interests in the Essequibo region, Paulo Roberto da Silva Gomes Filho, master in Geopolitics from the National Defense University of Beijing and in Military Sciences from the Army Command and General Staff College, assesses that Maduro wants to use the discussions on the annexation of neighboring territory to take the focus off the elections. “By scheduling the referendum on an issue that has almost unanimity in the country, with a strong patriotic and nationalist appeal, Maduro managed to take the subject of “elections” off the agenda”, he states.

“The most likely thing is that the Venezuelan government is using a well-known and widely used tool to change the focus of public opinion in the country, which was focused on the presidential elections scheduled for next year and the choice of the opposition candidate, the liberal Maria Corina Machado. Now, I believe he will try to keep this issue in the spotlight for as long as he can”, points out Gomes Filho.

Maduro has shown signs that he is not fit to exercise a democratic mandate since he made his main opponent ineligible for 15 years. The experts consulted by the People’s Gazette They also point out that the likely Venezuelan invasion of Guyana and its decision not to follow orders from the Hague Court contribute to the autocrat’s damaged image.

In addition to them, Igor Macedo de Lucena, economist and member of the think tank British Chatham House, criticizes Brazil’s equating Guyana with Venezuela. “My big question is whether Brazil will continue to think that Guyana and Venezuela are equal actors and that there is a way to resolve this simply by talking. Brazil needs to be proud, as it was not in Ukraine and Israel, and say that Venezuela is committing a crime before the international community. Otherwise, we will be seen in a very harmful light.”

By once again turning a blind eye to Maduro’s attitudes, Lula misses the opportunity to be the great mediator of international conflicts – a role he has been trying to assume since he first became President in the early 2000s. This is because Lula has an openness with Maduro and could forcefully pressure him to give up the venture.

Lula defended Maduro on several occasions

In one of them, Lula even said that Venezuela was the victim of a “narrative of anti-democracy and authoritarianism” — which earned him criticism from allies and opponents alike. By stating that the situation in Venezuela is nothing more than a “narrative”, the PT member was criticized by the left-wing president of Chile, Gabriel Boric, by his friend and president of Argentina, Alberto Fernández, and by the right-wing president of Uruguay, Luís Lacalle Pow. South American leaders considered the attempts to ignore the crimes committed by the Venezuelan unacceptable.

A few months later, the PT member even said that the concept of democracy would be “relative” when commenting again on Maduro’s country. “Venezuela has more elections than Brazil. The concept of democracy is relative for you and me. I like democracy, because it is democracy that made me become the Presidency of the Republic for the third time”, stated Lula in an interview with Radio Gaucha. The elections in Venezuela, however, are not recognized by international organizations due to the autocrat’s interference.

Due to concern about the Venezuelan dictatorship and the crimes committed by Maduro against human rights, some nations began to impose restrictions on Venezuela with the intention of curbing the dictator’s authoritarianism, as was the case in the United States and European countries. In one of these movements, the country was suspended from Mercosur (a trading bloc formed by Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay) and other South American organizations.

Brazil even reached an agreement between Venezuela and the United States, in recent months, for the North American giant’s sanctions to be reduced on the condition that Maduro commits to holding safe elections with the participation of the international community. Which, in the view of some experts, has not been fulfilled.

Lula even said that he wanted to reintegrate Venezuela into international discussions. The PT member even stated that he supported the country’s entry into the BRICS (bloc formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). These attempts, however, were not very well received — neither by the opposition nor by Lula’s allies.