Valdemar tries to contain the departure of deputies from the PL

One year after the second round of elections, with the victory of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), the climate of sharp political polarization in the country remains, even affecting the composition of the bench of the largest opposition party. The right-wing Liberal Party (PL), of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is among the government’s targets to expand the base of parliamentary support.

In this effort, the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), negotiates one or two vice-presidencies or directorships of Caixa Econômica Federal for the PL. The bank’s presidency was handed over to the PP last week, amid negotiations to ensure votes on projects with Centrão’s support. Bolsonaro’s party deputies represent the biggest barrier to the government.

The search for PL infidels to join the government is the newest and most controversial chapter in Lula’s series of attempts to co-opt deputies from the three conservative acronyms that formed Bolsonaro’s coalition in the campaign for re-election in 2022 and others from the center-right, such as União Brasil. PP and Republicans are already represented on the Esplanada dos Ministérios.

In light of the movements, there is talk behind the scenes that Bolsonaro demands the expulsion of dissidents, but is met with resistance from the president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto. Of the 99 deputies elected by the party, one was expelled: Yury do Paredão (CE) was punished in July for “having done the L” alongside Lula. But today there are between 20 and 30 who could also come into the spotlight.

Due to their support for the government in important votes, eight deputies also suffered subsequent punishments: Bacelar (BA), Detinha (MA), Josimar Maranhãozinho (MA), Junior Lourenço (MA), Junior Mano (CE), Matheus Noronha (CE ), Pastor Gil (MA) and Vinicius Gurgel (AP) lost the right to participate in any Chamber committee for three months.

Although he is an ally of Bolsonaro and votes according to the PL’s guidelines, deputy Ricardo Salles (SP), former minister of the environment, has had clashes with the party, especially with president Valdemar da Costa Neto, involving his project to run for Mayor of São Paulo. The São Paulo PL is initially supporting the re-election of Ricardo Nunes (MDB) and Salles is looking for alternatives to run.

25 deputies voted against the guidance of their leaders

In the Centrão’s first major test of fidelity in voting, in which the project to tax offshore funds and the so-called super-rich was approved on the 26th, of the 98 PL deputies, 73 were against the government, 12 in favor and 13 abstained. Of the members who did not follow the leaders’ instructions, representatives from the Northeast and deputy Tiririca (SP) stand out.

They were: Daniel Agrobom (GO), Ícaro de Valmir (SE), Jorge Goetten (SC), João Maia (RN), João Bacelar (BA), Luciano Vieira (RJ), Junior Lourenço (MA), Matheus Noronha (CE ), Rosângela Reis (MG), Samuel Viana (MG), Robinson Faria (RN) and Tiririca (SP), forming a group supporting the Planalto, including repeat offenders, punished for having approved Lula’s ministerial structure.

Despite the clear dissent, pragmatism favors the infidels remaining on the bench. As deputies do not have the freedom enjoyed by senators to migrate between parties, their voluntary disaffiliation can lead to the loss of their mandate due to the rule of party loyalty. On the other hand, the total number of seats in the plenary guarantees proportional access to committees.

In an interview with Rádio Nova Brasil FM this Tuesday (31), Carlos Jordy (PL-RJ), leader of the opposition in the Chamber, attributed the unfaithful group to the change in the party’s profile after Bolsonaro’s arrival and the wave that elected the greater number of deputies in 2022. “The PL of this legislature is different, it has a right-wing conservative format and the image of Bolsonaro at the head,” he said.

For Jordy, the largest opposition party in the country finds it difficult to deal with members of “adhesionist retrospect”, but considers it normal that they try to “leave the PL to be Lula’s base”, seeking the green light from Valdemar Costa Neto. The party was already part of the base of the first PT governments, including having the vice-president of the Republic.

Research has shown the persistence of polarization centered on the images of Lula and Bolsonaro. Above all, the conservative public has been more resilient, thanks to Lula’s external agenda and the customs agenda evoked by the Federal Supreme Court (STF). The Quaest/Genial survey released this week revealed that 44% of voters would vote for Lula and 39% for Bolsonaro. In the first round of the election, they had 39% and 37%.