USA and China: a new era after climate veterans leave – 01/15/2024 – Environment

The world’s two biggest greenhouse gas emitters are charting a new course of cooperation following the departures of John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua — two titans of climate diplomacy who paved the way for historic agreements.

Representing the United States and China, the two spent years on opposite sides of the negotiating table, crafting global agreements to reduce planet-warming emissions. Their close personal relationship has endured even as ties between the two superpowers have deteriorated over issues ranging from trade to Taiwan, which is poised to become a renewed source of tension after an election that returned the pro-U.S. party to power.

The challenge now is to build a system that can continue even without Xie and Kerry’s unique connection. His successors will be able to build on a foundation of goodwill built during their years of leadership and already have a mechanism in place to keep negotiations moving forward.

While China named career diplomat Liu Zhenmin, 68, to the post, a replacement for Kerry has not yet been announced.

The two countries agreed in 2021 to establish a working group and later tasked it with collaborating on the energy transition, methane emissions, deforestation and the circular economy, among other issues. This group, which had a virtual meeting on Friday (12), aims to sustain progress during the change of envoys and potentially a change of presidents in the US as well.

“Xie and Kerry knew they were leaving and wanted to make sure there was some structure [para que o trabalho pudesse continuar]” said Jake Schmidt, senior strategic director for international climate at the Natural Resources Defense Council. “Having it incorporated into the working group is one way to do that.”

Kerry, an experienced politician and diplomat, brought an unusual importance to his role. Previously, the position was held by bureaucrats who are experts in diplomacy but do not have the same high profile. Biden could return to that low-key route, although that could require US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to work more aggressively and visibly on climate issues — a challenge given the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Potential successors of this same profile include former Washington state governor Jay Inslee, whose 2020 White House campaign was focused on climate, and John Podesta, an experienced government strategist who is now in the White House overseeing implementation of the climate law of 2022, known as the Inflation Reduction Act.

The year 2024 will be challenging for whoever takes on the role. This year’s United Nations COP negotiations, the most important annual meeting on the climate diplomacy calendar, will focus on how much developed countries should contribute financially to help poor nations deal with global warming.

The US, which is the largest historical contributor to emissions into the atmosphere today, will be under special scrutiny. China, currently the world’s biggest emitter, is also under pressure to contribute funds despite its official status as a developing country.

The summit in Azerbaijan is set to begin just days after a U.S. presidential election that could drastically reorient the country’s stance on climate.

On the campaign trail, Republicans and Democrats are already taking a tougher stance against China. Biden will be increasingly under pressure to do the same, making it difficult to remain conciliatory on climate issues.

Meanwhile, China chose a non-controversial option with Liu, the diplomat nominated to succeed Xie. Fluent in English and trained in law, Liu served as Chinese vice minister of foreign affairs and under-secretary-general for economic and social affairs at the UN. He has been involved in past UN climate negotiations, including the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.

Liu attended last year’s COP28 summit as a senior advisor to Xie and spoke on behalf of the Chinese delegation on several occasions. However, he maintained a low profile and avoided conversations with journalists outside of official announcements. Many Chinese government officials close to Xie have said they want to preserve his legacy in a more visible way to ensure that the cooperation mechanisms he developed with Kerry continue to work.

Xie and Kerry were key figures at COP28 in Dubai, helping to broker the first global agreement to transition away from fossil fuels. At the end of the conference, Kerry invited Xie to join him at a closing press conference. The Chinese diplomat emphasized that the two men would continue to work together even outside their official positions.

“We are good friends,” Xie said. “Why? Because we have a common philosophy, which is to value and commit to environmental protection and respond to climate change. We will not abandon this field and will do our best to drive progress.”