Trump’s electability encourages the right, but Bolsonaro’s return is unlikely

The news about the eligibility of former North American president Donald Trump, confirmed by the United States Supreme Court this Monday (4), rekindled in supporters of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) the hope that he could run in the elections of 2026. However, political allies of the former Brazilian president and experts interviewed by the report estimate that Bolsonaro’s ineligibility will be unlikely to be reversed by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and the Federal Supreme Court (STF).

After the news about Trump was released, Bolsonaro supporters celebrated the decision on social media. Federal deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG) was one of them. In publication in X, the parliamentarian from Minas Gerais stated that, after Trump, “Bolsonaro is next” – in a reference to a hypothetical participation of the former president in the 2026 elections. The post had 25 thousand likes and more than two thousand shares. Among the comments, supporters were divided between celebrations and skepticism towards the Brazilian Judiciary.

Rendered ineligible by the TSE last year, Bolsonaro still has other actions before the Court, which were filed by left-wing parties and entities. The majority involve Bolsonaro’s criticism of the electoral system in 2022 and the use of images of demonstrations and official trips in electoral propaganda during that year’s presidential contest.

In addition to the electoral issue, the operation Tempus Veritatiswhich investigates the alleged attempted coup d’état and the acts of January 8, 2023, has the former president as one of the main targets – which could also lead to new actions against Bolsonaro in the future.

In the opinion of lawyer Richard Campanari, specialist in Electoral Law and member of the Brazilian Academy of Electoral and Political Law (Abradep), the right-wing movement in relating the US Supreme Court’s decision on Trump to Bolsonaro’s possible eligibility is not supported by legal status of the former president.

“The international connections of Brazilian politics that have influenced right-wing movements may have an impact on public perception and the mobilization of supporters, but they do not determine Bolsonaro’s legal eligibility for future elections”, assesses the lawyer.

He adds that the situation of the two political leaders is different. “Bolsonaro’s eligibility for future elections, regardless of the validity or severity of previous convictions, will depend on judicial and political decisions within the Brazilian context, which are independent of political circumstances in the United States,” explains Campanari.

Allies highlight symbolic aspect of Trump’s eligibility

Due to the entire legal context in which Bolsonaro is currently inserted, and the position of Supreme Court ministers, especially Minister Alexandre de Moraes, allies of the PL politician do not believe that a possible Trump victory in the US presidential elections will help to modify the ineligibility of the former Brazilian president.

Parliamentarians interviewed in reserve say that a turnaround in the former American president’s political situation will have a symbolic nature for Bolsonaro’s case. In other words, it will serve to encourage the supporter base with a view to the next elections, both for the 2024 municipal election and for the 2026 presidential contest.

Furthermore, if Trump returns to the White House, it is expected that the former president will have greater prestige with the possible new North American head of state than the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

Questioned by the report, a parliamentarian close to Bolsonaro stated that, contrary to what supporters believe, the STF will not be affected by political pressure from outside. The conflictive relationship between Bolsonaro and the Supreme Court ministers is seen as the fundamental factor in the former president remaining ineligible and, ultimately, hypothetically, he could even be arrested in the future.

Hope of reversing Bolsonaro’s ineligibility aims to keep the electorate mobilized

In the assessment of political scientist Elton Gomes, professor at the Federal University of Piauí (UFPI), the expectations of Bolsonaro’s supporters can be assessed as part of the political right’s political strategy to keep the electorate active.

“In Political Science, there is a phenomenon that we call “fanning”. The strategy involves the political leader “surrounding” the electorate to keep them mobilized, electrified with hopes and possibilities about the course of events. It’s something that can be used in Brazil for the purpose of competing for State spaces”, says Gomes.

Another aspect highlighted by the political scientist is that the mobilization also aims to create a scenario where Bolsonaro can be “rehabilitated” by politics, that is, maintain him as an important figure in the “political game”, even without being able to run for any office, as that the chances are minimal through legal means.

In this context, Bill 5064/2023, which provides amnesty to those involved in the acts of January 8, is seen as a possibility of political collaboration with Bolsonaro, if the former president is convicted of “abolition of the Democratic Rule of Law”. But even if it is approved, it will not change his ineligibility situation.

“These actions are meant to move the masses, to keep them with a sense of purpose, with an expectation. But we know that he does not have the power to carry out his electoral rehabilitation. On the other hand, the more important he remains in the political game, the calculation that the political actor makes, the more he understands that his chances of a reversal of this legal framework in the field of politics increase”, assesses Gomes.

New right-wing wave could come with Trump’s election

In addition to Bolsonaro’s electoral issue, Donald Trump’s return raises expectations about a new right-wing wave in Western democracies. The movement was seen after its first election, in 2016. In Argentina, in the same year, Mauricio Macri defeated Cristina Kirchner’s Peronism. In 2017, in Chile, Sebastián Piñera beat Michelle Bachelet. In Brazil, in 2018, Jair Bolsonaro (at the time in the PSL, now in the PL) beat Fernando Haddad (PT).

The change in the political spectrum of Latin America even allowed the creation of the Lima Group in 2017. The bloc emerged with the aim of denouncing the situation in Venezuela governed by dictator Nicolás Maduro, who at the time was already registering high repression against political opponents. Furthermore, the humanitarian crisis affecting the country was also a target of concern for the group.

With Trump’s defeat to Joe Biden in 2020, the coalition lost strength with the change of governments. With the election of Alberto Fernandez in 2019, Argentina withdrew from the group because it “disagreed with actions against Venezuela”. Since then, other countries that previously had right-wing governments have returned to left-wing governments: Gabriel Boric, in 2021, in Chile; Gustavo Petro, in 2022, in Colombia; and Lula, in Brazil, also in 2022.

On the other hand, the election of Javier Milei, in Argentina, in 2023, gave the right a new perspective for the region, which also extended to the United States.

In the assessment of political scientist Juan Carlos Arruda, CEO of the Ranking of Politicians, the changes that have occurred in recent years follow a trend that benefits the opposition.

“A study produced by Will Freeman, a specialist in Latin America from Council on Foreign Relations, shows that, since 2015, the opposition has won in 25 of the 34 elections that have taken place. This points to a tendency for power to shift towards opposition parties, regardless of their ideological orientation”, explains the political scientist.

He adds that this movement will also be observed in 2024. “Polls show Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden. In the Brazilian case, an eventual return to Jair Bolsonaro’s eligibility is more complex and challenging than it was with Trump. Investigations are still ongoing and due process timing is a battle against the clock. There are just over two years left until the 2026 elections, and the cases against Bolsonaro seem far from over”, said Arruda.