Temperature in 2023 was 1.48°C above the historical average – 01/09/2024 – Environment

The European Space Agency’s Copernicus observatory confirmed what preliminary data already anticipated: 2023 was the hottest year since the beginning of the historical series, in 1850.

With exceptionally high temperatures in several parts of the planet, including the oceans, 2023 recorded a global average of 14.98°C, surpassing the previous record holder, 2016, by 0.17°C.

When presenting the report, this Tuesday morning (9), the director of Copernicus, Carlo Buontempo, highlighted the dimension of the climate results released: “2023 was, by a wide margin, the hottest year in our documentation, which dates back to the 1940s, but that’s not all. We’ve probably just experienced the hottest year in our history [humanidade]. And possibly the hottest or one of the hottest in the last 100,000 years.”

Buontempo explains that the record means that human activities have never had to deal with such hot weather. “There simply weren’t cities, books, agriculture or domesticated animals the last time temperatures were this high. This calls for a fundamental rethink of the way we assess our environmental risk,” he says.

The Copernicus director drew attention to the urgent need to limit global emissions.

“Unless we can quickly stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, we cannot expect results different from those we have seen in recent months. On the contrary, following the current trajectory, in a few years, the record year of 2023 will likely be remembered as a fresh year”, he warned.

Although high concentrations of greenhouse gases are the main cause of global warming, the return of the El Nino climate phenomenon also contributed to the rise in thermometers in 2023.

In the previous three years, its opposite had occurred, La Niña, which favors cooling.

A data analysis carried out by Sheet showed that, even with the record recorded this year, the Earth has experienced five El Niños more severe than the current one in the last 70 years. In other words, the global temperature in 2023 was already very high, even without taking into account the intensity of the phenomenon.

“The year 2023 is already exceptional without El Niño. When we look in particular at ocean temperatures, temperatures along the Atlantic, already excluding regions close to polar waters, we had record values ​​from April onwards. And that was before El Niño was declared [o que só aconteceu em julho]”, said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change service.

Last year was also the first in which every day exceeded pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) by 1°C. This period, which precedes the start of major greenhouse gas emissions brought about by the Industrial Revolution, is the main measure of comparison for warming used by experts.

In 2023, almost half of days will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. In November, for the first time in history, there were two days when values ​​were 2ºC higher.

In 2015, the international community committed, through the Paris Agreement, to keeping the global increase in temperatures well below 2ºC in relation to pre-industrial values, preferably limited to up to 1.5°C.

According to Copernicus experts, although 2023 recorded figures higher than those agreed, this does not mean that the limits of the pact were exceeded, since the limits established by the Paris Agreement “refer to periods of at least 20 years in which this anomaly average temperature is exceeded”.

Scientists recognize, however, that the scenario in 2023 “sets a terrible precedent”. Last year, the average temperature was 1.48ºC above 1850-1900 levels. The result is 0.60ºC higher than the average for the period between 1991 and 2020.

With successive heat waves around the globe, historic records have been broken since the middle of last year. The hottest day and month marks ever recorded belong to July, due to the extreme heat recorded during the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Atypical temperatures also favored the occurrence of other extreme weather phenomena. “The warm tropical Atlantic also contributed to the above-normal hurricane season last year,” highlighted Francesca Guglielmo, scientific director of the Copernicus climate change service.

“Europe also experienced heat waves, forest fires and storms that led to severe flooding,” he added.

On the European continent, 11 of the last 12 months had temperatures above average. Last year was the second hottest on record in the region, remaining 0.17°C below the 2020 values, the current record holder.

Observations by European experts also indicate that a critical factor for the unusual values ​​presented in 2023 were the high temperatures in the oceans, classified as “unprecedented” by scientists.

From April to December, global average sea surface temperatures (SST) reached record values ​​for the period. The situation was repeated in most ocean basins, especially the North Atlantic.

Record ocean temperatures have been associated with marine heat waves around the world, including in parts of the Mediterranean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean, the North Pacific and much of the North Atlantic.

Last year was also marked by the reduction of sea ice in Antarctica. Daily and monthly extensions reached historic lows in February.

In the Arctic, ice concentration in March, considered the peak period of the year, was among the four lowest for the time.

The new report also indicates that 2023 will have record levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. Carbon dioxide levels were 2.4 ppm (parts per million) higher than in 2022, reaching, according to estimates, 419 ppm. The rate of increase was similar to previous years.

Methane concentration increased by 11 ppb (parts per billion) compared to the previous year, and is now estimated at 1,902 ppb. Although the rate of increase remained high, it was lower than in the last three years.