Quaest: Digital reaction to ineligible Bolsonaro loses strength – 07/14/2023 – Politics

Shortly after former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) was convicted by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), the leader’s trial and ineligibility for eight years were no longer prominent among Bolsonaristas on social media.

On the other hand, attacks against the Lula government (PT) and comparison with Bolsonaro’s management at the head of the Executive have gained ground. The debate around tax reform, seen as “PT reform”, also yielded engagement, with one of the peaks in the last week related to Bolsonaro’s name.

The day after the trial, on July 1, there were just over 65,000 direct mentions of the matter; on the 11th, that number dropped below 2,000 citations. On that same date, criticisms of the PT by Bolsonarists totaled more than 10,000 mentions.

This is what reports monitoring carried out by Quaest, a research and consulting company. There was a collection of mentions of the former president in publications on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube and Google, which were classified based on a machine learning model. Data collection took place between March 1st and July 11th of this year.

References to Bolsonaro, in general, have plummeted in absolute quantity since the date he was convicted. Even taking this drop into account, the debate about ineligibility proportionally came to represent a very small portion of the mentions of the former head of the Executive, having practically disappeared.

Although the ineligibility, in itself, is not being the target of commotion, the posts supporting the president continue to be proportionally relevant, with the use of expressions such as “my leader” and “my captain”. The hashtag #bolsonaro2026 even appeared in the first days after the trial, but then it also waned.

Other mentions, such as the hashtags #bolsonaroorgulhodobrasil, #fechadocombolsonaro and #somostodosbolsonaro, were relevant after the conviction, in addition to the statement “we are seeds”, in reference to a video of parliamentarians supported by Bolsonaro and published on the networks.

References to the former president after he was vetoed from the polls were mainly leveraged by three episodes: an appearance on Jovem Pan, the public disagreement with the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), and a live by federal deputy Nikolas Ferreira ( PL-MG), in which Bolsonaro participated.

In the interview with the broadcaster, on July 3, Bolsonaro avoided talking about the possibility of becoming an electoral supporter and giving space to new names on the right, remaining on the radar by saying that he had not died politically.

“I’m in the ICU, I haven’t died yet. [Não é justo] Someone already wants to share my estate,” Bolsonaro said.

With Bolsonaro declared ineligible, the dispute officially opened over which right-wing name will succeed the former president and will lead the opposition in the 2026 election. and July 7th.

He was targeted by the right after gaining space in negotiations for tax reform with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT). Tarcísio tried to convince the PL to vote in favor of the proposal, but was opposed by the PL and by Bolsonaro himself, being classified as a traitor. The reform was approved in the Chamber of Deputies on July 7.

In the analyzed period, the closing date of Bolsonaro’s trial represented the peak of mentions of his name, and divided the interactions between those in favor and those against the decision.

According to data from the consulting and research company, the number of mentions of Bolsonaro among those in favor of condemning the former president was greater than those in favor of maintaining eligibility, despite the smaller distance between the two groups.

The second peak was also negative, having occurred when the scandal involving Bolsonaro’s vaccination card fraud broke out – the mentions were much greater among those who criticized the former president than among those who defended him.

Only the return of the former president to the country after months in the United States had broad digital engagement among those who celebrated his return. According to Quaest, the subject had 1.2 million mentions, compared to 642 thousand registered when Bolsonaro landed.

According to Guilherme Russo, intelligence director at Quaest, Bolsonaristas changed their digital strategy, starting to direct more efforts to criticize the Lula government as a way to maintain active engagement, with agendas capable of attracting voter attention.

For him, the strategy used by Bolsonaro supporters for issues such as the attack on electronic ballot boxes, the idea of ​​political persecution and even a communist danger refers to a response to the setbacks of the former president, avoiding further wear among his opponents.

This response, according to Russo, of an immediate nature and aimed at protecting the former president, soon gives way to engagement with greater support, more positive, and this involves demonstrating negativity among the agendas that the PT government has taken during its mandate.

“Instead of talking about ineligibility, which is a factual issue, and Bolsonaristas know that it cannot be resolved, they change the narrative to show that Bolsonaro is alive despite the imposed situation. much more positive thing”, says the director.

He points out, however, the difficulty of the former president’s voters in defending him on the networks when adverse situations occur, which is seen in the scandal of fraud in immunization cards.

“Every time there is negative news about Bolsonaro, against his legacy, Bolsonaristas suffer more on the internet, it is difficult to promote narratives, which consequently makes digital activity decrease”, he completes.