Parties create a block of 142 deputies that splits the center – 03/30/2023 – Power

Five center and right-wing parties formally created a block in the Chamber of Deputies that brings together 142 of the 513 deputies, in a centrão split that empties the power of the President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL).

Until then, a member of the trio that formed the centrão alongside Jair Bolsonaro’s PL and Lira’s PP, the Republicans now joined MDB, PSD, Podemos and PSC, forming the largest political force in the House —MDB and PSD form the base of support of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and, together, occupy six ministries.

The move has repercussions not only on the day-to-day voting in Congress, but also on setting up Lula’s base and on Lira’s succession in February 2025.

According to parliamentarians interviewed by the Sheetthe government, which has worked so far in line with the mayor, did not influence the assembly of the bloc.

After formalizing the union, leaders of Republicans, MDB, PSD and Podemos met with the mayor this Wednesday (29) to signal that there is no intention of affront.

Lira posted a photo on her social networks congratulating the parties and stating that she has always defended the reduction of parties, “strengthening them and giving society confidence in our party system”.

The union of the Republicans with the governing PSD and MDB had the formal objective of confronting Lira’s articulations to form a federation between PP and União Brasil, which ended up not happening. The two parties, however, can still form a bloc.

PP and União Brasil, however, would add up to 108 deputies, behind the 142 of the new bloc led by MDB, PSD and Republicans.

The creation of this new political force in the Chamber does not mean that Lira ceases to be a fundamental part of Congress. In the chair of the presidency, he has the power to guide matters and influence the distribution of budget funds, even having ascendancy over parliamentarians from the newly formed block.

In addition to the political symbolism of bringing together the largest contingent of seats, the union gives power to the bloc in the composition of joint commissions (between the Chamber and the Senate) that must be resumed for the analysis of provisional measures, in the Budget Commission and in the day-to-day of the votes in plenary.

Some members of the new bloc claim that the union can be a stimulus for the future adhesion of part of the Republicans to Lula, although two components conspire against: 1) the consensual assessment that no center and right-wing party should give closed support to the government and 2) the fact that the party is home to the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, one of the names quoted for the 2026 presidential race.

Another implication of the formation of the block, this one in the long term, concerns the succession of Lira in command of the Chamber.

The leader of União Brasil, deputy Elmar Nascimento (BA), is considered by several parliamentarians as Lira’s candidate to succeed him.

With the new block, other names from the field of the center and the right gain strength, such as the president of the Republicans and vice president of the Chamber, Marcos Pereira (SP), and the leader of the MDB, Isnaldo Bulhões Jr. (AL).

Although two years is more than enough time for sudden changes in policy, if the election for the leadership of the Chamber were held today, Elmar would have a potential support of around 200 deputies —the sum of PP, União Brasil and the opposition PL— against 142 of the candidate of the new block. The approximately 120 votes for the PT and other leftist parties, in this case, would be decisive for one of the two sides.

The movement that empties Lira’s internal power occurs at the same time that the mayor is fighting a dispute with the Senate over the processing of MPs, which are the government’s main mechanism for legislating – but which need to be validated by Congress.

The deputy defends a model that keeps the power over the processing of these measures in his hands, but the Senate wants to resume what is foreseen in the Constitution: the initial formation of committees composed half and half by deputies and senators.

Lira has already yielded in her initial election, proposing that these commissions have three deputies for each senator, but this proposal of proportionality must be rejected by the senators.

The imbroglio persists, with potential damage to government interests. Some Lira allies privately say that the President of the House forced his hand in this episode and that he will now be forced to give in.

Having been elected with a base of left-wing parties that occupy only a quarter of the seats in the Chamber, President Lula sought at first to attract the PSD, MDB and União Brasil government base, distributing three ministries to each of these parties. center and right.

Resulting from the merger of the DEM (former PFL, arch-rival party of the PT) and PSL, the party that elected Bolsonaro, União Brasil is projected as the acronym with the potential to have the largest number of dissidents against the Planalto.

In the vote on Wednesday (29), for example, the session of the Chamber was overturned at the request of the government leadership itself for fear of defeat, since Elmar Nascimento, the leader of the União Brasil bench, had instructed the deputies to enter in obstruction.

Even if there is a majority membership of the PSD, MDB and Union, the government will have a base that is not considered comfortable — for that, it would need support that would relatively comfortably exceed the minimum necessary for the approval of amendments to the constitution, which are 308 of the 513 chairs. For this reason, Lula is also seeking the support of dissidents from the center.