Paraná Pesquisas publishes 1st electoral survey for the City Hall of Natal

The Paraná Pesquisas institute released this Tuesday (20) the first survey for the run for Mayor of Natal, in Rio Grande do Norte, in the 2024 municipal elections. (Republicans), who took over the administration in 2018 after the departure of Carlos Eduardo Alves (PSD) to run for governor of the state and was re-elected in 2020.

In both scenarios, former mayor Carlos Eduardo (PDT) leads the dispute with more than 30% of the votes, twice as much as second-placed federal deputy Natália Bonavides (PT). The representative of the PL in the state, federal deputy General Girão, appears with the preference of only 10% of voters in one of the calculated scenarios, but increases the advantage of opponents in another in which he is not mentioned.

Paraná Pesquisas also pointed out that the assessment of the current mayor is balanced and within the survey’s margin of error (3.7 percentage points), with 47.9% approval and 45.5% disapproval. 748 voters were heard between the 15th and 18th of June.

See how the dispute for the mayor of Natal is going for the 2024 elections:

Scenario 1, with Deputy General Girão:

• Carlos Eduardo (PDT): 30.2%;
• Natália Bonavides (PT): 13.1%;
• General Girão (PL): 10.8%;
• Paulinho Freire (União Brasil): 7.4%;
• Rafael Motta (PSB): 5.1%;
• Bruno Giovanni (without party): 3.5%;
• Eriko Jácome (MDB): 2.8%;
• Robério Paulino (PSOL): 2.5%;
• None/blank/null: 19%;
• Does not know/did not answer: 5.6%.

Scenario 2, without Deputy General Girão:

• Carlos Eduardo (PDT): 32.9%;
• Natália Bonavides (PT): 14.4%;
• Paulinho Freire (União Brasil): 9.6%;
• Rafael Motta (PSB): 6.6%;
• Bruno Giovanni (without party): 4.7%;
• Eriko Jácome (MDB): 4.5%;
• None/blank/null: 20.6%;
• Does not know/did not answer: 6.7%.

Methodology

Paraná Pesquisas interviewed 748 voters in the municipality of Natal, between June 15 and 18, 2023. The margin of error is 3.7 percentage points, and the confidence interval is 95%. The survey is not registered with the TRE-RN (Regional Electoral Court of Rio Grande do Norte). Election law requires registration only for polls published in the election year. The complete survey report is available in PDF at this link.