Pantanal will have the worst drought in 2024, environmentalists predict – 03/22/2024 – Environment

The expected March rains did not arrive, and the Pantanal is expected to go through the worst drought in history, environmentalists warn. With river levels low during a period that should be at full flood, the plain still faces regular water shortages from May to September, which increases the risk of fires.

The Pantanal receives rainwater from the plateau regions of the Upper Paraguay basin. In the natural calendar, the cycle begins in October, with peaks in December and January, lasting until March at the latest. During floods, water overflows river channels, connects lakes and forms large, continuous flooded areas.

“The Pantanal is experiencing extreme drought at a time when it should be full”, warns Eduardo Reis Rosa, researcher and member of the MapBiomas scientific platform.

The situation can be verified using the Ladário ruler, installed in the upper part of the Paraguay River basin, monitored by the Navy’s 6th Naval District. In March this year, the level of the Paraguay River, mainly responsible for flooding the biome, began the month at 0.87 centimeters and, until now, has not exceeded 0.92 centimeters.

In 2023, the river reached 1.93 centimeters, closing the month with 2.45 centimeters.

A change in the situation, according to Reis, can be expected with the end of El Niño, expected in the coming months, and with the arrival of the meteorological phenomenon La Niña, which is likely to occur in the second half of the year.

La Niña usually brings rain to much of Brazil and contributes to the drop in temperatures. Therefore, it may be a relief for the pantanal, but the impact on the biome is uncertain. In 2020, it was under the influence of this climate phenomenon that the Pantanal experienced one of the worst fires in history, with 3.9 million hectares affected by fire.

The pessimistic scenario is also outlined by biologist Gustavo Figuerôa, from the NGO SOS Pantanal. “It’s already worse than 2021, I believe it will be the worst drought in the biome’s history.”

In addition to the numbers, the environmentalist is based on what he is seeing in the tributaries that make up the Paraguay River basin, where the Pantanal plain is located. On the 20th, Figuerôa published on social media the dryness of the Miranda River, located in the district of Águas do Miranda, in Bonito (MS), which is around 150 km from the pantanal.

In the images, it is possible to see that where it should be flooded it is possible to pass on foot, stepping on the gravel deposited at the bottom of the river. “There are parts that are 70 centimeters deep in the main bed, this is also the reality of the wetland.”

The biologist demands more forceful prior action from the authorities, with an integrated fire management plan, which serves to prevent fires, in partnerships between the federal governments of Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso, the two Brazilian states where the pantanal is located .

Cyntia Santos, environmental analyst at the NGO WWF, says that the biome needs to be on alert until the end of the year, due to the threat of forest fires.

Data from Cemtec (Weather and Climate Monitoring Center) from the government of Mato Grosso do Sul indicate a rainfall trend currently between 600 and 800 millimeters, while the normal would be 1,400 millimeters.

Furthermore, high temperatures accelerate the evaporation process, which worsens drought. “It’s the perfect sum: dry area, high temperatures, lack of water resources, exhausted people and animals”, summarizes Santos.

The environmental analyst believes that the creation of Pantanal brigades and the purchase of equipment, planes and other inputs were positive measures to combat fires in recent seasons. Currently, there are 59 brigades, made up of riverside, Pantanal and indigenous people, trained with the support of NGOs that work to protect the biome.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, the state government says it has sufficient elements to support the publication of an emergency decree to assist in awareness, prevention and firefighting actions in the state, mainly in the Pantanal.

The data was presented at a meeting on the 20th. The Cemtec report also shows that, from March 1st to 25th, of the 44 municipalities analyzed, 35 recorded rain 50% below the volume expected for the month — this is the case of the Pantanal cities of Corumbá, Aquidauana, Miranda, Anastácio and Ladário.

The Fire Department’s work plan for the 2024 forest fire season was also presented.

In addition to state actions, the federal government also needs to present the fire prevention and combat plan, within 90 days, as determined by the STF (Supreme Federal Court).