NE governors will have difficulties in 2024 in the capitals – 12/21/2023 – Power

After winning the 2022 elections, maintaining a belt of allies of President Lula (PT) in 8 of the 9 states in the region, the governors of the Northeast are preparing for a new challenge. With the accumulated strength at the polls, they want to gain allies in city halls in the capitals in 2024.

But the electoral scenario is not simple, and the expectation is that cities will face tough clashes in municipal elections. Seven of the nine northeastern capitals have mayors who are opponents of the governors, with six of them likely candidates for re-election next year.

Faced with the adverse scenario, governors put together their strategies to overcome difficulties and unite allies around competitive candidacies. In some cases, in addition to political hegemony, a victory in the capital could represent the downfall of a potential opponent in 2026.

In Pernambuco, those around governor Raquel Lyra (PSDB) defend multiple opposition candidacies to face the mayor of Recife, João Campos (PSB), considered by his opponents as a favorite for re-election. The objective is to try to force a second round.

In the opinion of oppositionists, going to the second round would already be a defeat for João Campos, even if the current mayor emerges victorious. The state government believes that a victory in the first round will create a favorable environment for the mayor’s candidacy for governor in 2026 against Raquel Lyra.

Parties from Raquel’s allied base must launch more than one candidate. State secretary and former deputy Daniel Coelho (Citizenship) is the name closest to the governor, but former Bolsonarist minister Gilson Machado (PL) and federal deputy Túlio Gadêlha (Rede) are also pre-candidates.

The trend is also towards spraying in São Luís (MA). With a broad base that ranges from Lula’s PT to Jair Bolsonaro’s PL, governor Carlos Brandão (PSB) will have at least four allies following Mayor Eduardo Braide (PSD).

On the left, the mayor’s main opponent is federal deputy Duarte Júnior (PSB), a name close to Flávio Dino (PSB), Lula’s Minister of Justice who in 2024 will assume one of the seats in the STF (Supreme Federal Court).

Also pre-candidates are state deputy Neto Evangelista (União Brasil), former mayor Edivaldo Holanda (no party) and state deputy Yglésio Moyses, who must leave the PSB.

Among the governor’s allies, the assessment is that the mayor has already been stronger politically and that there is a chance of defeating him. The main assets will be Brandão’s support in a possible second round, the strength of President Lula and the memory of Flávio Dino’s management in the state.

In Natal, allies of governor Fátima Bezerra (PT) must be divided in the succession of mayor Álvaro Dias (Republicans). One of the concerns of the PT base is the advance of Bolsonarism in the city, where Lula won by a narrow margin in 2022.

The PT will compete with federal deputy Natália Bonavides, who is negotiating the support of MDB and PSDB. But it sees allied parties rehearsing a solo flight: the PSB may launch former deputy Rafael Motta and the PSD, former mayor Carlos Eduardo.

In Bahia, the strategy is opposite. Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) articulated a unique candidacy to face Mayor Bruno Reis (União Brasil), who is running for re-election as favorite with the support of ACM Neto.

The task of uniting a heterogeneous base was not easy, but after months of negotiations, vice-governor Geraldo Júnior (MDB) was confirmed as a pre-candidate this Thursday (21). The PT, which had presented the name of state deputy Robinson Almeida, withdrew from running.

In command of the Government of Bahia for 17 years, the PT faces the paradox of never having won in Salvador, despite having contested 9 of the 10 municipal elections since redemocratization.

Outside of the municipal dispute in 2024, he is betting on an alliance with a politician with a more conservative profile, but who faces resistance from part of the left-wing electorate.

Maceió (AL) is another capital in which the election will be a kind of second round of the state dispute, pitting allies of the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP), and senator Renan Calheiros (MDB).

Mayor João Henrique Caldas, JHC (PL), is running for reelection with the support of Lira and should polarize with a name from the MDB, governor Paulo Dantas’ party. Federal deputy Rafael Brito and state deputies Cibele Moura, Dr. Wanderley and Alexandre Ayres are listed.

The environmental disaster caused by Braskem’s mining activities, which caused soil subsidence in 20% of the city’s territory and relocated around 60,000 people, will be at the center of the municipal dispute.

“The current mayor is highly rated, but he has repeatedly committed contradictions. One of them was the agreement with Braskem that handed over the land and gave a discharge, a full amnesty, to the company”, says Renan.

The mayor, in turn, has accused his opponents of politicizing the problem.

Among the nine northeastern capitals, the PT sees its best chances in two capitals of states governed by the party: Ceará and Piauí.

In Fortaleza, governor Elmano de Freitas (PT) wants to unite the base around a single candidacy, but the PT faces a fierce internal dispute between four possible candidates.

The central character of the dispute is a pre-candidate who is not yet a member of the party: the president of the Legislative Assembly of Ceará, Evandro Leitão. Linked to the PDT, Evandro is part of the party wing linked to senator Cid Gomes who opposes mayor Sarto Nogueira (PDT).

In negotiations to join the PT, Evandro faces resistance from the group led by former mayor Luizianne Lins. State deputies Larissa Gaspar and Guilherme Sampaio are also pre-candidates in the party.

In 2022, Elmano was not the most voted in Fortaleza, but allies point to the governor as a strong electoral leader to face Mayor Sarto and candidates Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) and André Fernandes (PL).

In Teresina (PI), state deputy Fábio Novo (PT) is building a broad alliance with the endorsement of governor Rafael Fonteles (PT), who should dive into the campaign in the capital.

The potential opponents are former mayor Sílvio Mendes (União Brasil) and mayor Dr. Pessoa (Republicans), who should seek a new mandate even in an adverse scenario.