Ministerial reform of 2024 may be postponed to the 2nd quarter – 12/31/2023 – Power

The expectation that President Lula (PT) will carry out a broad ministerial reform at the beginning of 2024 has cooled, in the assessment of members of the government, the PT and the National Congress.

A wing of the Palácio do Planalto is still waiting for a reformulation of the first echelon in January, but ministers close to the president and allies who recently spoke with him about the matter left with the impression that the changes should not take place in such a short period of time.

Lula had previously told ministers that he has the habit of analyzing the government’s performance after the first year and making adjustments.

Flávio Dino, who will leave the Ministry of Justice and go to the STF (Supreme Federal Court), is a piece to be moved at the start of 2024. But this would be a replacement that goes astray in the ministerial reform.

A broad reconfiguration of the Esplanada dos Ministérios, then, would only be confirmed after March.

The president has not yet dropped the gavel. This has generated conflicting readings even among ministers at Palácio do Planalto, who are divided between those who believe in exchanges in January or February and those who see a reform only in the second quarter.

PT leaders also do not see room for significant changes to the Esplanada for now. The party occupies most of the ministries in the Lula government and should be the target of changes next year —Lula continues to question the performance of supporters at the head of some portfolios.

Ministers and allies say broad reform must be conducted at a time of real need. In other words, when the government needs to reorganize the political base to convince Congress to approve unpopular measures or measures of great interest to the president.

Despite the setbacks throughout the year, the Lula government ended 2023 with a positive balance in votes in the Chamber and Senate, in the opinion of people close to the president. They cite as an example the advancement of Minister Fernando Haddad’s (Finance) economic agenda and the rapprochement with central parties (PP, Republicans and even a wing of the PL).

Therefore, the group that sees a later ministerial reform believes that Lula will only face challenges in Congress again from the end of March, whether in projects linked to the second stage of the tax reform or in possible cuts to the 2024 Budget.

Haddad convinced the Palácio do Planalto to maintain the goal of eliminating the deficit in public accounts next year. But this is not a consensus within the government. There are already projections that this will force the president to freeze a large amount of expenses at the end of March or to review the target, which depends on Congressional approval.

In a meeting with ministers in the middle of this year, Lula recalled that he traditionally makes a political assessment of the distribution of ministries and the basis of the government after 12 months of work. In 2004, a year after assuming his first term, the PT member fired six ministers. It was his first ministerial reform.

Lula classified that moment as “painful”. Among those fired was José Graziano (Combate à Fome), one of those closest to him. The reform was necessary to make room for the PMDB (today, MDB), which sealed a lasting alliance with the PT from then on.

This history supports the idea of ​​a wing of Planalto that the president will maintain the practice at the beginning of 2024.

Other members of Lula’s environment say that the current political context is different, especially in the face of a more independent Congress than 20 years ago. Furthermore, they remember that the president was already forced to promote musical chairs in September that opened space on the Esplanada for the PP and the Republicans.

On that occasion, the president dismissed Ana Moser from the Ministry of Sports and removed Márcio França from the Ministry of Ports and Airports to make way for André Fufuca (PP-MA) and Silvio Costa Filho (Republicanos-PE), respectively.

France ended up being reallocated to a new ministry, of Micro and Small Businesses. The changes occurred after exhaustive negotiations between government members and party leadership. Before that, the president fired Daniela Carneiro from the Ministry of Tourism and appointed Celso Sabino, to respond to a request from the União Brasil bench in the Chamber.

Despite disagreements about when the next reform will take place, government allies continue to point out criticisms of the actions of PT ministers, including Wellington Dias (Social Development) and Rui Costa (Civil House).

The target of friendly fire, Rui is Lula’s strong man and tells allies that he has fulfilled the mission that the president gave him: taking on the role of management, carrying out works and shielding himself from political issues.

One wing of Planalto considers it difficult for Lula to touch the center of its kitchen. But, if this happens, the president of the PT, Gleisi Hoffmann, is named as a likely replacement.

The president of Petrobras, Jean Paul Prates (PT), is also the target of criticism.

Lula’s aides also point out that Minister José Múcio (Defense) could ask to leave his position next year. He, however, has told those close to him that he has no such intention.