Lula’s relationship with Argentina will not be the same after the elections

Not even Sérgio Massa’s victory in Argentina can guarantee Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) the closeness that the PT member maintained with the country during the last year and in his previous mandates. Despite being the current name on the left, Massa was once an opponent of Peronism and should not have as close a relationship with Lula as Alberto Fernández had.

Polls on next Sunday’s elections (19) in Argentina show a technical tie between Massa and the libertarian Javier Milei, who defends the end of Peronism and the bloated and inefficient State.

“Massa is a politically pragmatic figure. He has already criticized Peronism and Kirchnerism and acts in accordance with his interests. There are several criticisms about him in relation to this, including. But the assessment we can make is that he is pragmatic in essence”, says Argentine political scientist Leandro Gabiati.

When he returned to the Brazilian Executive this year, Lula’s first international destination was Buenos Aires, on a visit to the country’s president and his longtime friend, Alberto Fernández. Lula and Fernández have a close relationship beyond diplomacy. The Argentine even visited Lula in prison in 2019.

It was this personal relationship — motivated by the ideological identification between the two presidents — that allowed Fernández the opening to ask Lula for help in an attempt to overcome the economic crisis in his country.

In recent months, among Lula’s attempts to help his Argentine friend, the government invited Argentina to join the BRICS (bloc formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); tried to negotiate the country’s access to the New Development Bank, also known as the Brics Bank; financed imports and tried to make it possible, through BNDES financing, to complete the construction of the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline.

More recently, Lula was accused of having pressured Brazil, through its Planning Minister, Simone Tebet, and neighboring countries to authorize a billion-dollar loan to Argentina from the Latin American Development Bank (CAF). Lula and Tebet denied that they had interfered in the US$1 billion credit released to Argentina. The loan made it possible to roll over the country’s debt to the IMF (International Monetary Fund)

For Gabiati, this close and personal relationship between the presidents will no longer be seen between the two countries, even if Massa is the elected candidate. Sérgio Massa has been Alberto Fenández’s economy minister since 2022 and was the candidate chosen by the government to contest this year’s election. Also supported by Cristina Kirchner, current Argentine vice-president, Massa is the left’s bet to defeat the libertarian Javier Milei.

Giabati says that Milei will have a cold relationship with Brazil and Massa, if elected, should not explore a friendship with the Brazilian leader. “Lula is close to Kirchnerism, but not necessarily with Massa. Obviously there is a natural proximity, but what was seen with Fernández should not happen again” assesses the expert.

Lula should not find support in the agenda of the São Paulo Forum to approach Massa

Lula’s convergence with Argentine presidents came, most of the time, from the left-wing ideological agenda. The friendship with Fernández and the late former president Néstor Kirchner stemmed from this proximity that unites, for example, the São Paulo Forum in South America with other regions of the world. The organization brings together left-wing parties from the most varied countries to discuss ideas and methods for attracting supporters.

Even though he is the name chosen to represent the left in next Sunday’s presidential election (22), Sérgio Massa does not have Peronist DNA and was once a critic of the left, as Giabati points out. “Sérgio Massa does not have a Peronist root, but, in this case and due to specific situations, he was the figure chosen to represent the left and Peronism in the elections”, recalls the political scientist.

Massa’s pragmatism led him to his current position, according to Giabati. “Although he is not a left-wing figure, like Gabriel Boric in Chile and other presidents in Latin America, he represents the opposition to the most ideological right-wing candidate in Argentina today, which is Milei. The premise of ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’ applies here”, he assesses.

The candidate began his political career during the government of Cristina Kirchner and in 2009, after two years as head of the Cabinet of Ministers, Massa broke with Kirchnerism and made several criticisms of Cristina and her husband, the former president of Argentina. Néstor Kirchner. Press information at the time revealed a disagreement between the two after Sérgio called Néstor a “psychopath, monster and coward” during a dinner in the United States.

In 2013, Massa even founded his own party and became an “anti-Kirchner”, criticizing the then president of the country. Two years later, Massa launched his candidacy as president and ran a campaign with several criticisms of Cristina and her party. After the defeat, Massa even supported, in a veiled way, former president Mauricio Macri, who was elected that year.

The figure of critic of Kirchnerism lasted until 2019, when the current candidate for the Argentine presidency announced that he would be part of the Peronist coalition Frente de Todos, led by Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner herself. At the time, Massa said that it was necessary to “join forces” to defeat Macri’s attempt to be re-elected — which worked. Fernández was elected with Kichner as his deputy leader in 2019 and, three years later, Massa was appointed to the Ministry of Economy.

Despite his support for Kirchnerism, Massa has tried to distance his image from Fernández and Cristina herself, fearing that the presence of the two figures, who are already largely worn out by the Argentine electorate, will sabotage his candidacy.

This distance between Lula and the Argentine candidate could cool the Brazilian’s plans for the neighboring country. If Massa is elected, the friendly relationship that the PT member intends to perpetuate with Argentina could be replaced by a pragmatic and distant relationship.

Despite not being the ideal left-wing candidate for Lula, Massa is still the Planalto Palace’s hope for the left’s permanence in the Casa Rosada. The victory of Milei, Argentina’s libertarian candidate, is synonymous with an even more strained relationship with Brazil. Recently, the libertarian He called Lula an “angry communist” and promised that his government will be marked by a cooling of relations with left-wing governments, such as Brazil and China. But he said the private sector will have all the freedom to continue doing business with the countries.

Milei is still seen as a threat to Lula when it comes to the Brazilian president’s foreign policy. Since taking office for his third term, Lula has tried to get the free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union off the ground, but without much success. Within the bloc, the PT member has already encountered resistance from the right-wing Uruguayan president, Luis Lacalle Pou. If Milei is elected, opposition to Lula within the organization will gain even more strength.

Lula has been cautious when talking about the elections in Argentina

A People’s Gazette previously revealed that Lula would focus on silence for the elections in Argentina, with the aim of avoiding disruption to the diplomatic relationship between the two countries if the candidate supported by him is not elected. This week, however, the PT member commented on the neighboring country’s electoral campaign during his weekly live broadcast.

“I can’t talk about elections in Argentina, because it is a sovereign right of the people of Argentina. But, I wanted to remind you that Brazil needs Argentina and that Argentina needs Brazil. It is necessary to have a president who likes democracy, who respects institutions, who likes Mercosur, who likes South America and who thinks about creating an important bloc”, said Lula.

For the president’s supporters, the speech was a jab at Milei. Giabati points out, however, that Lula’s comment was pragmatic. “He did not name any candidate, although we know his preference. But his comment could be useful for both. If you ask Milei voters who is the most democratic candidate, they will say Milei, the same goes for those who will vote for Massa. It’s a subjective question.”

Despite the attempt to maintain pragmatism, Lula should not make an effort to maintain an open channel with the opposition candidate in Argentina, who has already stated that he will cut ties with the Brazilian. According to information revealed by CNN Brazil, the PT member is still considering not calling Javier Milei and congratulating him if he is elected, as the PT member usually does. Lula must speak out through social media and through a note released by Itamaraty.