Lula’s rejection grows in São Paulo and should impact elections

The new Datafolha survey on the evaluation of the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), released this Monday (11), points out that the PT member’s disapproval among voters in São Paulo increased compared to the previous survey, carried out at the end of August last year in the capital of São Paulo.

Over the six-month period, the percentage of voters who considered the PT’s management as terrible increased by nine points, from 25% to 34%. For 28%, management is regular. Another 38% of those interviewed rated the government as excellent and 1% were unable to respond, according to data from Datafolha.

The survey shows that Lula has better approval ratings among voters aged 60 and over. The president reached 45% satisfaction among those interviewed in this age group. Among those who studied up to elementary School, the approval rating rises to 47%. A disapproval is higher among evangelicals: 49%which represents an increase of 12 points compared to last August.

Lula’s rejection could impact the campaign of pre-candidate Guilherme Boulos (Psol), who has the PT president as his main ally. For the first time, the Workers’ Party will not be the head of the ticket in the election for the mayor of São Paulo with Marta Suplicy (PT) as Boulos’ vice-president after Lula’s articulation.

The allied base of Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) in the Legislative Assembly (Alesp) has reinforced on social media that Boulos is distancing himself from Lula after his approval ratings fell, a move denied by the left-wing bench.

Datafolha interviewed 1,090 voters in São Paulo on March 7th and 8th. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentages. The survey is registered with the Electoral Court under protocol SP-08862/2024.

Boulos bets on Marta after Datafolha survey results

Boulos has intensified the campaign with Marta, especially in the southern and eastern outskirts, where the former mayor enjoys good approval ratings. Marta appears ahead in the ranking of the best mayors of São Paulo in the last 40 years, according to Datafolha research.

In total, 16% of respondents mention the PT member, followed by Paulo Maluf (PP) with 13%. The current mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB) appears with just 3%, ahead of only Gilberto Kassab (PSD) with 2% and Celso Pitta with 1%.

Kassab is another former mayor who will be involved in this year’s election. The national president of the PSD was one of the first to declare support for Mayor Ricardo Nunes.

Another former mayor who will be involved in the campaign is the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), who came in third place as the best mayor of São Paulo with 11%, tied with the former mayors Mario Covas It is Luiza Erundina (Psol). The federal deputy who was Boulos’ deputy in the 2024 election will campaign, again, for the federal deputy.

Why Gazeta do Povo publishes electoral research

For years, Gazeta do Povo has been publishing all voting intention surveys carried out by the country’s main public opinion institutes. Voting intention surveys provide a current reading, based on representative samples of the population.

Interview methods, sample composition and number and even the way a question is asked are factors that can influence the result. That is why it is important to pay attention to the information on methodologies, found at the end of Gazeta do Povo’s articles on electoral research.

Research published in the last elections, for example, highlighted relevant discrepancies in relation to the result presented at the ballot box. Having made these notes, Gazeta do Povo considers that electoral polls, far from being a prediction of the outcome of the elections, are an information tool available to the reader, as the published results have the potential to influence decisions by parties and political leaders. and even the moods of the financial market.