Lula’s rating drops due to crime, drugs and corruption – 03/09/2024 – Vinicius Torres Freire

From the end of last year until now, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s assessment has worsened significantly in several areas, especially public security, combating corruption and spending control, according to an Atlas survey carried out between 2 and 5 of March.

The electorate’s concern with crime and drug trafficking and corruption increased, issues cited as the country’s main problems by almost 60% of those interviewed. “Poverty, unemployment and social inequality”, the worst problem cited by 20.6%, and “economy and inflation”, by 15%, are far in the ranking of afflictions.

These numbers may help explain Lula’s drop in popularity. The increase in the average salary, social benefits, the number of jobs and the drop in inflation were not enough to offset other dissatisfactions (perhaps most reverberated on social networks and messages).

The socioeconomic improvement was even less enough to change the fact that the majority of the electorate is divided into opposing opinions on almost any aspect of the government or the country, depending on the vote in 2022 (for Lula or Jair Bolsonaro).

Lula’s prestige began to decline significantly from September onwards, according to data from two other surveys released last week, Quaest and Ipec. In Atlas’ numbers, since the beginning of the government, the segments of the electorate that give “excellent/good” and “bad/terrible” for the president have been at very close levels; the decline in positive evaluation became more significant from January onwards.

But the degradation of Lula’s prestige made a greater impression with the release of these three surveys, carried out between February 25th and March 5th. In all three, there is a tie in the proportion of voters who give Lula the best or worst marks, given the margin of error. That is, 35% “positive” compared to 34% “negative” at Quaest; 38% “excellent/good” compared to 41% “bad/terrible” at Atlas; 33% “excellent/good” compared to 32% “bad/terrible” in Ipec.

The bulk of Lula’s loss of points occurred among his 2022 voters, in the first or second round, especially because the president practically has nothing left to lose among those who voted for Bolsonaro; the rest are minorities.

Lula was “great/good” for 82.8% of his second-round voters in July 2023, falling to 70.6% in March 2024, in the Atlas survey. At IPEC, the drop went from 70% to 61%.

Regarding the assessment of aspects of the government, the most significant worsening occurred in “public security”, data from Atlas. Performance was considered “excellent/good” by 43% in November; in March 2024, to 24%. In the case of “justice and combating corruption”, it went from 49% to 28%. In “fiscal responsibility and expense control” from 48% to 30%.

Lula’s statements about Israel and, much less, Venezuela were subjects remembered in analyzes of the decline of Lula’s prestige. In “international relations”, the government went from 53% “excellent/good” in November to 38% in March.

The assessment of the economy also worsens, but less.

The almost immovable disparity of opinions between Lulistas and Bolsonaristas is confirmed. The “economic situation in Brazil”, for example, is “good” for 51.5% of those who voted for Lula in the 2022 second round and for 2.1% of Bolsonaro voters (Atlas). For those who voted blank or null, 22.9%; for those who did not vote, 24.9%.

By chance or symptomatically, the average positive opinion of Lulistas and Bolsonaristas is close to that of voters who did not choose a presidential candidate in the last election.

It is difficult to assess Lula’s popularity in categories such as income, years of education and even gender and religion. There are relevant differences in numbers between the surveys; Furthermore, in these cases, the margins of error are greater.

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