Lula will settle with Europe – 7/4/2023 – Elio Gaspari

Lula exaggerated the dose when he kicked the bucket when attacking the restrictions that the European Community wants to impose on purchases of agricultural products from the Amazon and the Brazilian cerrado. The restrictions were conceived for a country that had an inert diplomacy. Countries relate to countries, not governments. Even the stones knew that a boycott of grain and meat exports was just around the corner and the government of Pindorama gave prestige, by word and deed, to the agro-troglodyte faction of its business community.

Since August of last year, it was known that Brazilian grains and meat could suffer restrictions to enter Europe. It was about, among other things, bringing forward from 2030 to 2025 the goal of zero deforestation in the cerrado, where the bulk of grain exports come from. A recommendation came out that from 2024 onwards, products harvested in areas deforested after 2020 should not be purchased.

If this matter is handed over to a third secretary recently graduated from the Rio Branco Institute, he will deliver in a few days a spreadsheet capable of guiding a negotiation to undo the tangle. If the matter remains as it is, in pure marketing, the interests that are on the other side, moved, will thank you.

To say that Brazil protects its forests is to repeat Bolsonaro’s speech, copied by Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid. Denouncing the European Union’s gesture as protectionism, in addition to raining in the wet, artificially legitimizes the claim of those seeking protection. French soy is heavily subsidized, and it’s easier to put the Bourbons back in Versailles than it is to get a French president to fight his farmers. The problem is that, even subsidized, this production lacks international competitiveness.

The Brazilian negotiator can choose two paths. In the first, Bolsonaro and Lula (so far) sang the National Anthem. As the hymns are different there, the effect will be null. The other is to lower the ball, starting to talk.

During his visit to Paris, Lula said that “it is not possible for there to be an additional letter threatening a strategic partner.” It is possible, as they are there. It is also possible to negotiate them, but this must be done at a table, not a podium.

In the European Community, as in Brazil, the defense of the environment is on the political agenda of the rulers. Bolsonaro’s government did not say a single word while the threat was in the oven. Lula’s government has nothing to do with his speech and the language used up to now is not conversational.

There is no doubt that Brazilian agribusiness (9 out of agrotroglodytes) can get along with the European Community. It’s only a matter of time. Lula could have started to address this issue during his trip to COP27, held last year in Egypt. There is no record that this ever happened. On the days she was there, she reiterated her commitment to the environment.

The neo-Bolsonaro discourse of the last few months is a shot in the foot, since, based on it, any concession will seem like a retreat, and limitations are implicit in the electoral platform of the current government.

Itamaraty and Brazilian agribusiness have enough staff to sit down with the Europeans in search of an agreement. The impasse is not Lula’s account, unless he crosses the street to slip into it.

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