Lula negotiates the dropper with the centrão in exchange for votes – 10/28/2023 – Power

Almost two months after the entry of PP and Republicans into the first echelon of government, the centrão’s support for President Lula’s (PT) projects remains conditional on obtaining more space, see the coincidence of the change in command of Caixa and the approval of the project taxation of offshore companies last Wednesday (25).

On the one hand, the center demands positions and uses Fernando Haddad’s (Fazenda) agenda to put pressure on Planalto. On the other, Lula adopts a strategy of dragging and dropping negotiations.

The president’s political assistants say that this tactic has been adopted because the government does not yet have a loyal parliamentary base. Even if Lula imposes his own pace (often slower) to appointments to serve the centrão, the scenario, outlined at the beginning of his term, is one of vote-by-vote negotiations.

Therefore, the PT member did not give in to pressure and delivered everything that Congress asked for in a single package – even in the most tense moments for Lula, such as in the vote on the MP (provisional measure) that restructured the government, in May, when the president was walled in and almost suffered a historic defeat.

The same game should be seen in the next relevant votes in Congress, as the centrão bill is still open.

The group, led by the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), demands the release of political appointments in the vice-presidencies of Caixa, in addition to Funasa (National Health Foundation), which had been extinguished by Lula and was recreated by parliamentarians’ decision.

There is also a request for more parliamentary amendments in 2024, the election year, and articulation of measures that take away Lula’s power in managing these resources that are distributed according to the interests of deputies and senators.

The government’s list of priorities, on the other hand, includes Haddad’s projects to increase revenue and manage to adjust public accounts.

The next chapter of political negotiations is approaching.

The Minister of Finance wants to speed up the vote on a project on companies that received ICMS benefits and, to this end, he must meet with Lira and Chamber leaders next week. There are R$35 billion at stake for the government’s coffers next year.

Congress is aware of the weight of this project for Haddad’s plans and the government’s hurry – which opens an avenue to bargain for positions and amendments with the Planalto.

Party leaders comment, behind the scenes, that without this measure, or if it is too dehydrated, the minister will be forced to review the goal of closing the gap in public accounts next year. Government members with political dialogue admit that there is no ace up their sleeve capable of reaching the R$35 billion sought by the government.

PT’s interlocutors say that, despite the instability of the base, the government’s agenda has advanced.

That year, proposals for the recreation of social programs, the reconfiguration of ministries, the new fiscal framework, the Carf project (Administrative Council for Fiscal Resources), the taxation of offshore companies and the Tax Reform were approved — the latter still being processed in the Senate .

Lula was elected last year by a small margin of votes and with the left winning just over 100 of the 513 seats in the Chamber. With this, the PT member first negotiated the support of center and center-right parties, distributing nine ministries to PSD, MDB and União Brasil.

The support of these acronyms, however, was not enough to give the Palácio do Planalto a large majority, especially because there is dissent.

The president then began negotiating the entry of the centrão, which was the legislative support of the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government and is made up of PP, Republicans and PL — the latter, opposition, but with a pro-Lula dissent.

In the vote on the taxation of offshore companies, PSD, MDB, União Brasil, PP and Republicans cast 198 votes in favor of the government, out of a total of 323 who endorsed the project. In these parties, there were 36 votes against, generally from parliamentarians linked to Bolsonarism or openly oppositionists.

In Bolsonaro’s PL, there were 73 votes against the government and 12 in favor.

The relationship between the deputies (especially those from these six parties) with Lira was the main factor that guaranteed Lula the advancement of economic measures, topics that please the centrão leader and whose approval also strengthens him.

One day after the approval of the Esplanada MP, Lira gave the direction of the negotiations. He said, at the beginning of June, that he warned Lula about the parliamentarians’ dissatisfaction and defended that the PT member should give space in his ministry to more parties to increase his support base in the National Congress.

The exchanges were made in a sliced ​​manner, which, in the opinion of the president’s allies, is also a way of removing the image of a weakened government that easily gives in to pressure from parliamentarians.

Since the June declaration, Celso Sabino, from União Brasil, took over the Ministry of Tourism and, more recently, André Fufuca (PP) and Silvio Costa Filho (Republicans) went to the Sports and Ports and Airports portfolios, respectively.

Last Wednesday, Lula decided to fire the president of Caixa Econômica Federal, Rita Serrano. And Lira placed ally Carlos Antônio Vieira Fernandes in charge of the bank, which is considered politically to have the same value as a ministry.

In an interview with journalists on Friday (27), Lula said that he does not negotiate with the center, but with political parties, and acknowledged that he made agreements with PP and Republicans.

“It is their right, who would like to have space with the government, to nominate a person who was at Caixa, was once at Caixa, was once in Dilma’s government, was once at the Ministry of Cities, a person who has the CV for that. And they [partidos] together they have more than a hundred votes, I needed these votes to continue the government”, he said.

The space gained by the centrão in the PT government in these first ten months was still not enough to consolidate a solid base, despite the government having strengthened ties with Lira and senate cardinals, such as the president of the House, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) , and senator Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP).

In addition to more positions, parliamentarians complain about the delay in authorizing the transfer of amendments.

Congressmen from high and low clergy often point out that, because of the fragmentation of political groups within parties, a minister’s chair does not have the same power to attract deputies and senators to the government’s base as in previous years.

Increasingly independent, the center has different nuclei. This requires a diversified political articulation, which includes ministerial exchanges, retail negotiations for regional positions (including with Bolsonaro’s PL) and the release of resources for works and projects in parliamentary strongholds. The list therefore grew.

Lula-Centrão negotiations in 5 points

1 – MP da Esplanada

• What was negotiated? Promise to speed up the transfer of amendments and start the debate on changes in ministries. União Brasil appoints Celso Sabino to Ministry of Tourism

2 – Carf Project

• What was negotiated? More than R$7.5 billion are released in amendments per week. Dialogue on ministerial reform is opened for the entry of the PP and Republicans into government

3 – Tax Reform

• What was negotiated? Extra amendments, controlled by Lira, between R$3.5 million and R$7 million for each deputy

4 – New tax framework

• What was negotiated? Consolidates the appointment of André Fufuca (PP) and Silvio Costa Filho (Republicans) to the Sports and Ports and Airports portfolios, respectively

5 – Offshore and super-rich taxation project

• What was negotiated? Handover of Caixa presidency to the center