Jair and Michelle Bolsonaro technically tie with Lula in polls for 2026
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Former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) would technically tie with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in at least three scenarios determined by the Paraná survey released this Thursday (28) with voting intentions for the 2026 presidential succession.
The research tested different names from both the government and opposition bases to contest the next election in which Lula intends to be re-elected. Although the PT president is a strong name ahead of practically everyone else, he has Jair and Michelle attached to some voters’ preferences.
It should be noted that Bolsonaro is still considered ineligible by the Electoral Court and, at this moment, could not run in the 2026 election.
Paraná Pesquisas interviewed 2,024 voters in person from 162 municipalities in 26 states and the Federal District between March 18th and 22nd. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, on average, with a confidence level of 95%.
The survey was not registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which requires the registration of voting intention surveys only in the appropriate election years. The full general results can be consulted here.
Lula, Jair and Michelle
See below the scenarios calculated by Paraná Pesquisas that indicate a technical tie within the margin of error between Lula, Jair and Michelle Bolsonaro.
Stimulated
- Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 37.1% – margin of error between 34.9% and 39.3%;
- Lula (PT): 35.3% – margin of error between 33.1% and 37.5%;
- Ciro Gomes (PDT): 7.5%;
- Simone Tebet (MDB): 6.1%;
- Eduardo Leite (PSDB): 1.8%;
- None/blank/null: 8%;
- Don’t know/didn’t answer: 4.2%.
Stimulated only with Lula and Jair
- Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 41.7% – margin of error between 39.5% and 43.9%;
- Lula (PT): 41.6% – margin of error between 39.4% and 43.8%;
- None/blank/null: 11.4%;
- Don’t know/didn’t answer: 5.3%.
Stimulated only by Lula and Michelle with support from Jair
- Lula (PT): 44.5% – margin of error between 42.3% and 46.7%;
- Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): 43.4% – margin of error between 41.2% and 45.6%;
- None/blank/null: 8%;
- Don’t know/didn’t answer: 4.2%.
In addition to Jair and Michelle Bolsonaro, Lula would also technically tie with Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP) in a dispute with the former president’s support for the opposition, according to Paraná Pesquisas:
- Lula (PT): 43.9% – margin of error between 41.7% and 46.1%;
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 40.8% – margin of error between 38.6% and 43%;
- None/blank/null: 10.7%;
- Don’t know/didn’t answer: 4.6%.
Bolsonaro advances in spontaneous research
Even though he is still considered ineligible by the Electoral Court, former president Jair Bolsonaro sees his name advancing in the spontaneous preference of voters in three polls, one in August 2023 and two this year – January and March.
See below the results of this March survey and those found in the two previous surveys (Aug/23 and Jan/24):
| Candidate | Aug/23 | Jan/24 | Mar/24 |
| Lula (PT) | 22.6% | 20.3% | 20.8% |
| Jair Bolsonaro (PL) | 12.3% | 14.4% | 15.9% |
| Ciro Gomes (PDT) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Simone Tebet (MDB) | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Romeu Zema (New) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Eduardo Leite (PSDB) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Helder Barbalho (MDB) | – | – | 0.1% |
| Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ratinho Junior (PSD) | 0.1% | – | 0.1% |
| Ronaldo Caiado (União) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sergio Moro (União) | 0.3% | 1% | 0.7% |
| None/blank/null | 8.5% | 7.7% | 9.5% |
| Don’t know/didn’t answer | 53.4% | 54.6% | 50% |
Lula surpasses other candidates
In other scenarios investigated by Paraná Pesquisas with other possible government and opposition candidates, President Lula still leads the electoral race with varying advantages depending on the opponent. Overall, his electoral preference in stimulated scenarios ranges from 36.2% to 44.9%.
See below how the other candidates would behave in different scenarios determined by the institute:
- Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): from 30.9% to 43.9% with the support of Jair (as expressed above);
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): from 23.3% to 40.8% with the support of Jair;
- Ratinho Junior (PSD): from 14.6% to 35.3% with the support of Jair;
- Romeu Zema (New): from 14.1% to 34.6%;
- Ronaldo Caiado (União): from 7.7% to 32.6% with the support of Jair;
- Ciro Gomes (PDT): from 7.5% to 14%;
- Tereza Cristina (PP): from 7% to 32.2% with the support of Jair;
- Simone Tebet (MDB): from 6.1% to 9.2%;
- Ciro Nogueira (PP): from 3.4% to 29.1% with the support of Jair;
- Eduardo Leite (PSDB): from 1.8% to 4.2%.
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