In Act of January 8, PT wants to gain political and electoral capital

The Lula government is planning a “democratic act” for next Monday, January 8th, in reference to the demonstrations followed by predatory attacks on public buildings held on the same date last year. For the event, which should be attended by government authorities and allies, a special security scheme is being organized in Brasília. Experts consulted by People’s Gazette evaluate the act as a symbolic action by the PT and its allies with the aim of generating political and electoral capital in an election year.

The act organized by President Lula (PT) and allies is based on the idea that January 8 brought real risks to Brazilian democracy, which did not happen. Master in Political Sciences, Cristiano Noronha, from Arko Advice, states that, as there was no institutional or legal support from any Powers for the movement, he does not consider that January 8th was a real risk to democracy. “Neither the judiciary nor the legislature supported the acts. There was not even a shadow of institutional support”.

He explains that there was no support from the main leaders of Congress or participation from the top of the Armed Forces in the movement. “So, in my opinion, it did not represent a serious risk to democracy. The institutions proved to be very strong and so did the people who were in charge of these institutions”.

Political analyst and advisor at Malta Advogados, Luiz Filipe Freitas, adds that, as institutions did not join the movement, an attempt at a democratic rupture, as the PT argues there was, would not have the slightest chance of being viable. “In Brazilian history, be it the Proclamation of the Republic, Vargas, or 64, in all these movements there were institutions that bought this fight, this rupture, which did not happen on January 8th”.

Uncertain political and electoral capital

Freitas believes that the PT uses the episode in its electoral calculations, as the party is one of the parties that most uses negative political marketing, using data and facts to weaken its opponents. In the short term, the strategy tends to have few practical effects, but in the long term it may have a greater strategic effect.

According to the website Metropolises, however, the government would be afraid of using the date in an electoral manner and of making the same mistake as former president Jair Bolsonaro on September 7 last year – the former president was prohibited by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) from using in his electoral campaign the images of his participation in these demonstrations. Freitas disagrees that there is a parallel between the two episodes, as the Independence holiday is national and has great historical and patriotic appeal, which does not occur with January 8th.

“Although the government tries to make this an important date, it does not have that dimension. This strategy may only have practical effects in 10 years, but over time this can also be significantly minimized.” The analyst considers that elections allow weapons like this to be used against opponents and that the PT will certainly use them against candidates linked to Bolsonaro. In this way, 2024 would be a test for the party to evaluate the effectiveness of the strategy.

Noronha also assesses that the PT uses January 8th as a flag to erode Bolsonaro’s image, and that as the issue is still under judgment by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) the political exploitation of this tends to continue for a longer period. “Anyone who is named as a candidate supported by former president Jair Bolsonaro, the PT will obviously try to link it to January 8th, as an attack on democracy.”

Act as a way of appeasing disputes between powers

The “democratic act” will be held next Monday, at 3 pm, in the Senate plenary, and the presence of Lula and the presidents of the STF, Luís Roberto Barroso, have already been confirmed; from the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG); and from the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL). The Minister of Economy, Fernando Haddad, will return from his vacation to attend the event.

By uniting the heads of the three Powers, Lula also tries to play a role in alleviating various tensions, more especially that occurred at the end of the year, when the Senate approved the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) that prohibits monocratic decisions by the STF, assesses Noronha. “When Lula makes this type of movement, he tries to bring together the heads of Power and presents himself as the person who is leading this appeasement.”

The doctor in sociology and political consultant Antônio Flávio Testa assesses that, even so, participation in the act could be a “shot in the foot” for the presidents of the Senate and the Chamber, who need “parliamentary support to survive politically”.

The presence of governors and parliamentarians supporting the government, representatives of civil society, ministers and presidents of state Courts of Justice and Legislative Assemblies is also expected. In his last ministerial meeting of 2023, held on December 20, when announcing the carrying out of the “democratic act”, Lula asked ministers to take a break from their holidays to take part in the ceremony.

Opportunity for Cappelli at the Ministry of Justice

Initially, the organization of the event was the responsibility of Minister Flávio Dino. This will be his final action at the head of the Ministry of Justice and Public Security (MJSP), since, as announced by Lula, he will leave the department on January 8th to take up his seat at the Supreme Court. However, as Dino is on vacation, responsibility for the act fell to Ricardo Cappelli, executive secretary of the MJSP.

Cappelli’s performance has been closely watched, as he is one of those tipped to replace Dino at the head of the department. On December 26, the executive secretary met with representatives of the DF Public Security Secretariat (SSP-DF), the Institutional Security Office (GSI) and the heads of security for the federal Legislature and Judiciary at the Integrated Center for Brasília Operations (CIOB) to handle event security details.

Recently, Cappelli announced a series of security measures that will be taken on January 8th. The executive secretary is also responsible for leading public security actions within the Federal District. Among them is the closure of the perimeter of Praça dos Três Poderes.

The region will still be monitored by security cameras and drones, and specialized troops and search lines will be used. Furthermore, entrances to the Federal District will be monitored by the Federal Highway Police (PRF). More planning details are expected to be released this Thursday.

In addition to the actions announced by Cappelli, the GSI of the Presidency announced that it intends to replace the glass on the ground floor of Palácio do Planalto with armored material. The change could exceed R$8 million. The GSI itself considers the intervention an uncomplex but effective reinforcement for increasing security, as it assesses that common glass made it easier to break into the building last year.

Lots of security, but no demonstrations expected

Despite the complex security organization, so far there are no confirmations of demonstrations against the Lula government scheduled for January 8th on the Ministries esplanade or in other locations in Brasília. In fact, according to the website Metropolisesdemonstrations in the federal capital between January and November this year decreased by 63% compared to 2019, the first year of Jair Bolsonaro’s government.

That year, there were 363 demonstrations, compared to 134 in the first year of Lula’s third term. The current number is even lower than in 2020, the year the pandemic began, when 138 acts of this nature were registered in Brasília. The numbers were recorded under the Access to Information Law (LAI).

According to Cappelli, the measures aimed at security on the date will be aimed “more at monitoring any atypical movements related to acts that violate the powers”. “Brazil is a free and democratic country, demonstrations are welcome and typical of democracy,” he declared.

In Antônio Flávio Testa’s analysis, the tendency is for there to be no significant movement on the date and for the measures to constitute a waste of time and money. “The measures [de segurança] they will be preventive and will probably have a symbolic character, since there will be no public”.

Security failures and strict sentencing scored 8/1 last year

Security failures were one of the most debated points after January 8, 2022, mainly by the opposition to the government, which claimed that there had been a failure on the part of the security forces to contain predatory acts. There are records that National Force personnel were present on the esplanade and were not called. In total, 2,151 suspected people were arrested on the day of the protests and the following day, January 9, in the camp in front of the Army Headquarters, in Brasília.

So far, the STF has convicted 30 people for the acts that occurred at the beginning of last year, with sentences ranging from three to 17 years in prison. Anderson Torres, who was Public Security Secretary of the Federal District at the time of the acts, was removed from his position and had his preventive arrest ordered by STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes.

On the other hand, in addition to not providing records from its security cameras containing images from that day, on the grounds that they had been lost due to contract failures, the Ministry of Justice, under Flávio Dino, also refused to provide information about the January 8th. In 2023, the body received the “Golden Lock” award for being the public body that denied the most requests via the Access to Information Law (LAI). As pointed out by the Comptroller General of the Union (CGU) panel, 16.6% of requests made to the MJSP via LAI were denied.