Government relaunch in August is victory for semi-presidentialism

The government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) plans to restart in August with a ministerial reform to incorporate Centrão, launch of a federal investment program in infrastructure (Novo PAC) and actions aimed at raising popularity. Even though it is an exclusive decision of the Central Bank (BC), the likely cut in the basic interest rate on the next 2nd will also be associated with this desire for a new phase, followed by even more public machine spending fronts that already signal a fiscal deficit of R$ 150 billion in 2023, in addition to Lula’s many trips abroad.

After suffering severe defeats in Congress and seeing economic reforms being shaped and conducted by the President of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and by the deputy’s allies, the Planalto had to give in in favor of pragmatism and a less unstable relationship with the Legislature, while trying to show itself in control.

Analysts heard by People’s Gazette attest, however, that Lula is building a governance model that combines party coalition with increasingly limited autonomy. And the so-called semi-presidentialism defended by Lira can be carried out silently.

In the arrangement welcomed by Lula, parties from the opposite camp, such as the PP and the Republicans, will occupy important spaces of power in the government machine without constraint, although protected by the labels of “independent” and “responsible opposition”.

Nominations are exclusive to the president, but the conditions given for them will be dictated by the parties entering the coalition. For market analysts, this agreement increases political predictability and the presidentialism of a leftist ruler conditioned by the mood of center-right leaders will have its success defined by economic indicators.

The parties that actively supported the re-election of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) will exchange positions for support for the government without a programmatic focus, with negotiation focused on votes in the Chamber. Lula assures that he will preserve PT posts and leftist allies on the Esplanada, but conversations between Planalto organizers and Centrão indicate that everything is negotiable. The PP nominated the leader in the Chamber, André Fufuca (PP-MA), to take the place of the Minister of Social Development, Wellington Dias. The Minister of Sports, Ana Moser, in turn, should leave to accommodate deputy Silvio Costa Filho (Republicans-PE). Lira’s allies still want Gilberto Occhi, former president of Caixa, back in charge of the bank, and the position of holder of the Ministry of Development, today with vice president Geraldo Alckmin (PSB).

Deadline to vote on fiscal milestone will increase pressure for positions

João Henrique Hummel Vieira, director of Action Relations Government, emphasized that negotiations between the Executive and the Legislative are Arthur Lira’s domain. He explained that, despite the historic approval of the tax reform and other celebrated deliveries by the President of the Chamber shortly before the parliamentary recess, the vote on the fiscal framework was left for later, even though it had to be approved by August 31st. The same suspense surrounding deadlines surrounds the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO).

This scenario puts “a sword over the government’s head”, as questions loom over required counterparts. There are discussions around ministries, positions, payment of 2022 parliamentary amendments and commitment to this year’s amendments, but non-compliance with agreements can generate turbulence.

At the same time, the imposing budget and the Executive’s difficulty in intervening in the Budget without consulting Congress “open up opportunities to strengthen the consolidation of semi-presidentialism”. “It is natural to raise the question of who will win or lose in the second half and whether it will be possible to find an equation that satisfies everyone”, he summarized.

Eduardo Galvão, professor of institutional relations at Ibmec-DF, believes that Lula is just remodeling the coalition model, which had already undergone changes over the last few years, with advances by the Legislature over the Executive. Under the leadership of Arthur Lira, during the management of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), typical attributions of the head of government ended up being transferred to the Legislative, such as distribution of parliamentary amendments, budget management and allocation of positions according to the government base.

“With Lula, there is an attempt to rescue the role of the President of the Republic as manager of the coalition and the distribution of positions, in addition to seeking shared management of funds. The strategy allowed him to accumulate political capital to run his own government. To this end, he created more ministries, with a view to expanding the spectrum of negotiation and regaining prerogatives within the context of expanding the powers of the Legislative”, he explained.

Housekeeping brake explicit anomalies of the political system

Arthur Wittenberg, professor of government relations at Ibmec-DF, understands that Lula dedicated the first seven months of his term to adapting to reality, which consumed great energy from both the Presidency and the palace ministers.

“The organizational effort to deal with 37 ministries has evolved into new adjustments in the administrative machinery, including second-level appointments that are already improving governance conditions,” he observed. For the expert, the strategy is to facilitate administrative and political integration, overcoming post-electoral inertia, during which Lula maintained a campaign spirit “more intense and lasting than desirable.”

“With the president’s electoral stance fading, the government is clearly entering phase 2. Lula is, above all, pragmatic. At the beginning of his term, there were doubts about his understanding of the change in the political situation, with a more powerful and center-right Congress. However, now it is clear that he not only understood exactly the situation he is in, but will also focus on building consensus in the economic area, while leaving the customs guidelines to be dealt with only by government parliamentarians”, he evaluated.

For the political scientist André Felipe Rosa, the ministerial reform in seven months of government reveals the biggest anomaly of presidentialism in Brazil, which has no relation to parliamentarism. “The system that turns the gears of the political system is an attack on democracy, which is hostage to the corporatism that dominates Congress, which charges rent from the Executive to approve its proposals”, he underlined. With that, Lula repeats what several presidents had to do: divide the government into new actors at all times, or at each important vote in Parliament.

Parties access funds without commitment to results

Even with angry speech against opponents, Lula returned to seek composition with everyone who wants to come to the government. Party presidents Ciro Nogueira (PP) and Marcos Pereira (Republicans) released the affiliates of their legends to accept invitations to command ministries or state companies. This “independent governmentism” guarantees government funding without the consideration of seeking results.

In this government relaunch strategy, Lula got help from his biggest political rival, Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who articulated a belated and failed reaction against the tax reform. The sure approval of the text ended up isolating the group most loyal to the former president and even exposing the split between right-wing parties. The presidents of the three parties that were the party base of Bolsonaro’s coalition – PP, Republicans and even the PL – exposed the wear and tear. Valdemar da Costa Neto (PL) released the party to vote along with the government in exchange for amendments.

The opposition’s identity crisis, increasingly restricted to the PL and Novo, should be accentuated in the coming weeks, with the inauguration of Republican and PP ministers. In addition, the biggest obstacles faced by the government in Congress during the first semester came from the group led by Arthur Lira, who must enter the government machine.

This crisis, however, goes beyond the opposition. Carlos Siqueira, president of the PSB, demands consistency from Lula in the composition of the ministries and warns of the growing “anomaly of the political system”, which is distorting the proposal of a “broad front” in the name of governability. In reality, the allies of the left struggle not to give way.

Planalto targets Budget to be able to influence more in the elections

In recent months, there have been exchanges of messages and test balloons, where figures such as the leader of the government in the Chamber, José Guimarães (PT-CE), speak of a “new cycle”, Minister Flávio Dino (Justice) speaks of operational adjustment to make the government project viable, and Minister Alexandre Padilha (Institutional Relations) mentions productive negotiation to improve the relationship with parliament. Lula, in turn, moderated his speech on points of friction with parliament, such as the ideological criticism of agribusiness and the defense of “relative democracy” in Venezuela.

Congress benefits from the government’s lack of solid foundations and increases the toll cost for the government to transit over managing its own resources. The Planalto, in turn, wants to manage budget breaks both to meet demands from politicians and to boost its plans for the 2024 and 2026 elections.

But the conditioned governability of supporting presidentialism can make the Presidency of the Republic dysfunctional or bureaucratic, even if it presents the end of explicit impasses and recurrent institutional crises as an asset.

By reorganizing the government with ministers from subtitles who supported Bolsonaro last year and without the support of a negotiation around a common project for the country, the president makes explicit conveniences, surrenders and private interests of politicians, with a high risk of anti-republican actions.

Out of a spirit of survival, Lula maintains the perspective of centralized command of the Executive in his figure, but with wide concessions to alleviate daily tensions in dealing with the Legislative. Banded together to tame mutual distrust, the Powers seek dominance at any cost.