Government expects at least 55 votes to approve Tax – 11/07/2023 – Market

The base of the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) government expects at least 55 votes in favor of Tax Reform in the Senate plenary in this Wednesday’s vote (8).

Privately, advisors and senators state that the score should reach 60 votes, 11 more than the 49 needed to approve a PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution).

The tone, however, is one of caution, given the continuity of negotiations in search of a broader score.

The easy approval of the opinion of the rapporteur, senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), at the CCJ (Constitution and Justice Commission) this Tuesday (7) was seen by government allies as a positive sign for the advancement of the reform.

Faced with a significant margin of votes, government members are confident that the articulation will also bring a positive result in the plenary. The strategy is to try to complete the two rounds of voting on Wednesday.

The government leader in the Senate, Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), said that the result in the commission was quite satisfactory. “For those who said that we don’t have a number [de senadores na base]”, he celebrated.

Braga has avoided guessing about the score, but told Sheet last week that there were enough votes to approve the reform in the plenary.

After the CCJ session, he reiterated his optimism: “Today’s result gives us a lot of confidence that, in the plenary, we will have enough votes to approve.”

The committee’s score also signaled the support of senators who oppose the government, including members of the PP.

The party embarked on government in September with the appointment of André Fufuca to the Ministry of Sports. The president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), also nominated the president of Caixa, Carlos Vieira. However, there is resistance in the Senate.

The basic text of the reform was approved by the CCJ by 20 votes to 6. In addition to the expected support from benches such as PT and MDB, the government received favorable votes from Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI), national president of the party and former minister of the Bolsonaro government (PL), and Esperidião Amin (PP-SC).

“What I’m arguing is that [o PP] you have to vote coherently”, said Nogueira. He highlighted that the PEC rapporteur in the Chamber, deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), is a member of the party and that the party instructed deputies to vote in favor, in July.

The leader of the Republicans in the Senate, Mecias de Jesus (RR), also voted in favor of the reform of the CCJ. The caption is the same as that of the Minister of Ports and Airports, Silvio Costa Filho.

In another sign of goodwill, PP and Republicans freed the senators to vote as they wished during the discussion of the special calendar that authorizes the vote on Tax Reform this Wednesday.

Only Sergio Moro (União Brasil-PR), Oriovisto Guimarães (Podemos-PR), Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), Carlos Portinho (PL-RJ), Rogério Marinho (PL-RN) (opposition leader) and Eduardo Girão ( Novo-CE) voted against Braga’s opinion in the CCJ.

The government’s assessment is that most of the controversial points were resolved by Braga, and that part of the opposition must avoid damaging the electorate by voting against the Tax Reform.

Despite the chances of a defeat being remote, Lula personally entered the political articulation this Monday (6) and brought forward the meeting with Senate leaders that was initially scheduled for this Wednesday — after the CCJ session and, possibly, the plenary.

Behind the scenes, congressmen from the base complained about the lack of involvement from Palácio do Planalto and pointed out that, a week before the vote on Tax Reform by senators, the president received leaders from the Chamber.

At the meeting, according to reports, Lula reinforced the message that the reform is a strategic agenda for the government and asked for votes to approve it.

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, defended the economic agenda in a more comprehensive way, highlighting the importance of also approving measures that could increase revenue in 2024, such as the proposal that changes the ICMS subsidy rules.

Vetoes to the project that establishes a time frame for the demarcation of indigenous lands also entered the negotiations. The opposition, especially the ruralist group in the Chamber, hopes to reverse Lula’s decision next Thursday (9).