Global waste volume expected to grow 60% by 2050 – 02/28/2024 – Environment

The volume of waste in the world, which reached 2.3 billion tons in 2023, could increase by more than 60% in 2050 and cause serious impacts on health and the economy, the UN warned this Wednesday (28).

At current rates, waste (excluding industrial and construction) is expected to reach 3.8 billion tons annually by the middle of this century, exceeding predictions in a previous World Bank report.

The crisis will be especially acute in countries that use polluting methods to treat waste, such as landfills or open incineration, which result in soil pollution and the emission of greenhouse gases such as methane or polluting gases such as carbon black.

“Despite efforts, little has changed”, indicates the new report, prepared by UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme).

“Humanity has even gone backwards, generating more waste”, indicates the document. “There are billions of people who do not have a system to collect their waste.”

In rich countries, the essentials are collected, but in low-income countries the rate is less than 40%.

Currently, between 400,000 and one million people die every year from diseases related to poor waste management, such as diarrhea, malaria, cancer or cardiovascular diseases, highlights UNEP.

The report was published at the sixth session of the United Nations Environment Assembly, held this week in Nairobi, capital of Kenya.

The waste spreads pathogens, heavy metals and other endocrine disruptors into soil and groundwater over a long period of time, and its open-air combustion releases persistent pollutants into the atmosphere.

It is believed that organic waste that decomposes in landfills is responsible for 20% of human emissions of methane, the gas that generates the greatest warming among all greenhouse gases.

Opportunities

If measures are not taken, the direct and indirect cost of waste worldwide could almost double, reaching US$640 billion (about R$3.1 trillion) annually by 2050, estimates the new report.

In 2020, the direct cost of waste treatment was estimated at US$252 billion (R$1.3 trillion at the time), or US$361 billion (R$1.8 trillion) if including indirect costs related to pollution generated by inadequate facilities or management methods.

Therefore, it is “urgent” to begin a “drastic reduction in waste” and invest in the circular economy, warns the UN body.

“Many rapidly developing economies struggle with the growing burden of waste”, says UNEP director Inger Andersen, highlighting the fundamental role of public and private actors who can find “opportunities to create more sustainable societies”.

Keeping waste “under control”, she says, especially through better treatment methods, could limit the net annual cost to US$270 billion (R$1.3 trillion at current exchange rates) by 2050.

But it is possible to go further, moving towards a true circular economy, better industrial practices and comprehensive waste management, which could even generate a net profit of more than US$100 billion per year (approximately R$495 billion) , the report also defends.