Expansion of the Brics may remove Brazil’s prominence in the group

The countries that make up the Brics, a political and economic bloc made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, have been discussing the inclusion of more nations in the group. This increase, however, according to experts, could take away the little role that Brazil already plays in the organization.

“Brazil does not have great influence in the group, we are not an economic power nor a political influence. Today, in the Brics, we are on the same level as South Africa and the inclusion of more countries in the group could leave Brazil in an even more uncomfortable position”, explains José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB ).

When formed in 2006, South Africa was not part of the group, its inclusion took place in 2011. Since then, there have been dialogues about the possibility of new countries being part of the organization. According to Anil Sooklal, the South African ambassador of the BRICS, 20 nations have applied to join the group.

Among those interested are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Uruguay, United Arab Emirates, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Comoros, Gabon and Kazakhstan, as well as Argentina, Bangladesh, Guinea-Bissau, Indonesia and Honduras. There is also Venezuela, which Lula is trying to make lobby to join the organization as well. The country, however, did not present any formal proposal [nem informal] to join the group.

On the one hand, China defends the expansion of the group. This is because the country seeks to increase its influence in the world context and therefore wants to accelerate this expansion process. When the country led the bloc, the Chinese deputy minister, Ma Zhaoxu, presented a proposal called BRICS+, with the inclusion of new countries in the group. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said Beijing was working on an “accelerated expansion of the bloc”.

On the other hand, India and Brazil are in favor of including new members, but with one caveat: that this be done with criteria. After the Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mauro Vieira, participated in the bloc’s meeting in South Africa, this month, he said that the member countries were “working and perhaps [seja] because of this great success which has attracted the attention of many other countries in the 15 years”.

More countries in the group take the spotlight away from Brazil

For the experts consulted by the People’s Gazette, the entry of new countries in the group would remove the little role that Brazil already has in the organization. Despite having appointed the president of the Banco dos Brics, a position given to former president Dilma Rousseff, the country does not have the financial or political power to exert any kind of influence over the other members of the group. “Each time the group increases, it becomes diluted and this dilution may cause Brazil to lose representativeness”, explains Castro.

“Brazil has a 1/5 participation in the Brics, that is, 20%, with the inclusion of new countries, this participation could fall to 19%, 18% or 15%. [de países no grupo] Brazil also starts to diminish the importance of Brazil and makes each country, individually, have a smaller participation in the organization”, points out the president of the AEB.

With the formation of the New Development Bank (NDB), also called the Brics Bank, in 2015, most countries wishing to join the group intend to have access to the financial resources that the organization offers. The NDB seeks to offer financial support to member countries [e outros países emergentes] who wish to finance infrastructure and sustainable development works, whether public or private. With the inclusion of new countries, Brazil also loses space with regard to access to these resources.

“Brazil would have to share resources with more countries”, explains Pedro Feliú, professor of International Relations at the University of São Paulo (USP). “Nations like Uruguay and Egypt may be more borrowers than the United Arab Emirates, for example, an issue in which Brazil loses protagonism,” he says.

For specialists, even without the inclusion of new countries, Brazil does not play a very influential role in the group. “I believe it is still too early to say that the expansion of the organization is a reflection of Brazil’s loss of relevance, but its loss of protagonism is even somewhat independent of this adhesion [de mais países ao grupo]. Brazil’s loss of protagonism depends a lot on its material capacity, which was at its peak between 2002 and 2010, with the so-called commodity boom. But it’s been a while since we’ve experienced that”, points out the professor.

An example of Brazil’s low influence in the BRICS was the frustrated attempt by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) for Argentina to have access to NDB resources. The Brazilian president tried to get the Brics to make a loan to the neighboring country, but his request was denied. Despite the denial, the Argentine president, Alberto Fernández, still has hope of joining the group and continues in negotiations with the PT, who promised “to do everything to help Argentina”.

Feliú also assesses that Brazil’s interest in supporting the group’s expansion stems from its interest in creating multilateral collisions. “At first, Brazil defends this expansion and as we don’t have a very great capacity for power, for Brazil it is always better to forge bigger collisions, preach multilateralism and increase its bargaining power by associating with more countries in similar conditions”, analyze.

Venezuela in the BRICS

After Nicolás Maduro’s visit to Brazil, Lula spoke in favor of the country’s entry into the group and the Venezuelan dictator bought the idea. “We need to build this new geopolitics, which has fundamental components… Union of South America, despite the (political) diversities… Together with the Brics, five powerful countries that are becoming a great magnet for those who seek a world of peace and cooperation”, said Maduro.

Despite the possibility of Venezuela joining the BRICS, this has been a contradictory agenda. In search of more support and new relations with South America, China has already shown itself to be in favor of this integration. “We welcome more like-minded partners to join the BRICS family at an early date,” said Mao Ning, spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

This possibility, however, is criticized by specialists, who do not see how the country could add something to the organization. The attempt seems to be, once again, Lula’s interest in forming ideological connections with the country.

“Technically, it makes no sense for Venezuela to join the group. There is no economic condition [para agregar ao Brics] and, for this reason, the country cannot add anything, besides facing a series of democratic problems”, points out José Augusto de Castro.

How the Brics position themselves in the world today

The union of Brazil, Russia, India, China and, later, South Africa was created with the aim of providing greater geopolitical integration between the main emerging countries in the world. “The Brics entered the world stage as an alternative or different proposal than what would be, on the one hand, the OECD and, on the other, the international financial institutions of Breton Woods, more specifically the IMF and the World Bank”, explains Pedro Feliú.

In short, the group aims to create an alternative for reform, change or at least to form another possibility of internal order that is not guided by the traditional developed countries. Despite the idea of ​​creating options that fit the reality of these countries, the group is not relevant in terms of security, as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) does. “It should be noted that in the Brics meetings after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, also because Russia is a member of the group, there is no mention of war, peace or an agreement”, he analyzes.

Although the group is not involved in security issues, its economic power cannot be compared to the IMF or the World Bank, as the group has financial limitations. “It also does not work as a concentration forum, as an alternative to the OECD or even the G7, as it is not responsible for demonstrating major changes in the international scenario. So, I place the Brics on that second shelf of the world blocs”, he analyzes.

Even though its creation arose from the desire to bring emerging countries together, the world scenario has changed over the years. Currently, the Brics represent 25.6% of the world’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in addition to being larger than the GDP of the G7 (group of the 7 most industrialized countries in the world). This shift was due to the great economic growth of China, consolidated as the second largest economy in the world, along with India, the emerging country that presents the most economic growth in the Brics and occupies the 7th position in the ranking of world GDPs.

Due to the size they currently represent, many emerging countries are seeking to gain space in the bloc. For the president of the AEB, however, discussions about the expansion of the Brics may end up having a negative outcome for countries that see hope in the group. “Personally, I find it difficult to include new countries, because their members lose representation in the group as a whole”, he says.

The expert also points out that the criteria for joining the group must be very well established by the member countries. “I think there may be mention of including new countries, but when it comes time to see, they won’t do anything. Even more so when this discussion includes countries that cannot add anything to the group economically”, points out Castro.