Emmanuel Macron’s heavy game – 01/30/2024 – Elio Gaspari

Even the stones knew that French President Emmanuel Macron was opposed to the European Union’s trade agreement with Mercosur, but by announcing that negotiations should be stopped he played hardball. It’s one thing to diverge, which has been happening since conversations began 25 years ago, and it’s another to close the door. In the last century, Americans and Vietnamese traded in Paris, while Hanoi and Haiphong were bombed.

Macron spoke harshly because French farmers besieged Paris. Blocked, the city has three days of food. His attitude was truculent, but understandable. In France, confronting farmers is suicide. They defend your interests.

The firecracker came from Macron’s advisors:

“We understand that the commission has instructed its negotiators to close the ongoing negotiation session in Brazil and, in particular, to cancel the visit of the vice-president of the commission, which was expected to be concluded.”

The one who was left hanging was Lula, with his soapbox diplomacy. When France showed its ill will, he said: “I appealed to Macron to stop being so protectionist.”

It is not possible to know whether Lula believes that, by making appeals or getting involved in a dispute like Ukraine or Gaza, his presence changes the situation. It’s possible she believes it, but it’s likely she’s started to come to her senses.

On the night of October 30, 2022, when Lula defeated Bolsonaro, he was celebrated internationally and may have seen the applause as personal recognition. One of the first to congratulate him was Macron. He was wrong. As happened with part of his 60 million votes, Bolsonaro was applauded when he went home. Since then, Lula has wasted a piece of his international heritage.

On the trade agenda, statements like “I appealed to Macron” deceive those who support him and make those on the other side of the controversy laugh. A Brazilian car manufacturer considers himself praised when a competitor accuses him of being protectionist in defending the taxation of imported cars. The French farmer is a protectionist, with great pride, and moves when the government thinks about harming his business.

It is in the aspect of internal illusion that Lula should calibrate his rhetoric and, on another level, the Brazilian agribusiness group should redesign their speech.

Next year, the United Nations Conference on Climate Change, COP-30, will take place in Belém. In one year of government, Lula showed that Brazil has abandoned its status as a proud pariah and has numbers to show the effect of his work. From now on, the battery of anti-Bolsonarism, which still gives so much energy to the government, will be weak.

There are strong signs that the group playing with Black intends to demonize a part of Brazilian agribusiness. It would be a line similar to Macron’s knee. If those interested on this side realize that calling them protectionists is a compliment, Brazil could come out of the COP well.

(Pretend that Belém’s logistical difficulties in hosting a meeting of this size are irrelevant. If the government starts working on this issue today, they can be overcome.)

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