Dollar is falling this Friday, an empty calendar day before Carnival; Ibovespa fluctuates

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The day before, the North American currency advanced 0.54%, quoted at R$4.9946. The main stock index on the Brazilian stock exchange closed down 1.33%, at 128,217 points. Dollar banknotes Pexels The dollar is falling this Friday (9), on a day with an empty agenda on the eve of the Carnival holiday. Abroad, also without major indicators, analysts are keeping an eye on the prospects for North American interest rates. Ibovespa, the main stock index on the stock exchange, operates with volatility, oscillating between highs and lows. See below for a summary of the markets. Dollar At 11:51 am, the dollar fell 0.46%, quoted at R$4.9716. See more quotes. The previous day, the North American currency rose 0.54%, quoted at R$4.9946. With the result, it accumulated: increase of 0.53% in the week; gain of 1.16% in the month; increase of 2.93% in the year. Ibovespa At the same time, Ibovespa had a slight drop of 0.03%, at 128,175 points. The day before, the index ended with a drop of 1.33%, at 128,217 points. With the result, it accumulated: increase of 0.76% in the week; increase of 0.31% in the month; and a drop of 4.50% in the year. READ ALSO CASH OR CARD? What is the best way to take dollars when traveling? DOLLAR: When is the best time to buy the currency? Understand what makes the dollar rise or fall What is moving the markets? With no major highlights on the agenda this Friday (9), investors continued to reflect on the inflation data released the day before. According to information from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), considered the country’s official inflation, registered an increase of 0.42% in January, well above what the market expected. of 0.35%. As a result, the country has an accumulated IPCA of 4.51% in 12 months. In total, the market consensus expected an increase of 4.43%. “We consider that January’s results showed another deterioration in inflation dynamics at the margin. As we wrote in our latest reports, the current disinflation process reflects a positive supply shock, due to external factors and non-cyclical events. However, inflation of services remains worrying”, says a report from XP Investimentos. The institution projects inflation to be around 3.7% at the end of 2024. g1 listened to economists to understand the dynamics of food prices, which were the highlights of yesterday’s IBGE release. Despite the launch of fresh products, experts understand that the effect is temporary, bringing the concern back to services. There are two points to consider: The price of food suffers from a seasonal effect: in summer, fresh foods have a natural drop in supply, which pushes prices up. El Niño intensified climate variations and created harvest difficulties, causing additional damage to prices. The underlying services core, the one that best indicates the sector’s trend and excludes more volatile measures, rose 0.76% in January — the biggest surprise of all the IPCA openings in the experts’ opinion. The intensity of this effect, however, is still uncertain. Following the repercussion of yesterday’s result, economists classified the number of underlying services as a kind of “yellow alert”. Find out more here. Among the indicators, IBGE released the Monthly Services Survey (PMS). In December, the sector saw a 0.3% increase in volume compared to the previous month. In comparison with the same month of the previous year, there was a drop of 2%. Market expectations projected an increase of 0.8% in the month, and a year-on-year drop of 1.9%. As a result, the sector ended 2023 with accumulated growth of 2.3% in volume, losing strength after expansions of 10.9% and 8.3% respectively in 2021 and 2022. The services sector is still 11.7% above of the pre-pandemic level and 1.7% below the highest point in the historical series, December 2022. In the United States, speeches by directors of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) also continue to resonate in the markets . The president of the Fed district in Richmond, Thomas Barkin, said that US economic data “has been remarkable across the board”, but reinforced caution. “I’m always cautious about numbers at the turn of the year, as there are big seasonal adjustments… I’m not sure I’m going to get much out of a single month,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Among the indicators, investors evaluate the numbers from the review of the consumer inflation series, looking for new signals about the Fed’s interest rate scenario. Monthly consumer prices in the United States increased 0.2% in December, lower than initially expected , 0.3%.

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