Dollar goes below R$ 5.10; see quote today – 03/30/2023 – Market

The dollar opened in decline this Thursday (30), with expectation for the presentation of the new fiscal rule by the government. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad had a meeting scheduled with party leaders from the Chamber of Deputies to present the proposal this Wednesday (29). He promised to make the new framework public later this week.

At 9:08 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar retreated 0.81%, to R$ 5.0940 on sale.

On B3, at 9:08 am (Brasília time), the first contract dollar futures contract fell 0.85%, to R$ 5.0955.

In the United States, the definitive GDP (Gross Domestic Product) result for the fourth quarter and for the year 2022 will be released. March, which will be announced on Friday (31).

The Stock Exchange closed high and the dollar fell this Wednesday (29), following the trend seen in international markets. Emphasis on shares of exporters and commodity producers, such as Petrobras and Vale, boosted by good news from China. The day was one of many oscillations, due to the expectation for the definition of the new fiscal rules.

The Ibovespa ended the day up 0.60%, at 101,792 points. At the low of the day, the index reached around 100,200 points, and at the highest, it surpassed 102,000. The spot commercial dollar closed down 0.58%, at R$5.135.

In the interest rate market, the day was bullish, with the market waiting for the result of the last meeting between the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to discuss the new fiscal framework.

In contracts maturing in January 2024, the rate ranged from 13.15% at the close of this Tuesday (28) to 13.20% this Wednesday. On maturity in January 2025, interest increased from 12% to 12.13%. For January 2027, the rate increases from 12.17% to 12.28%.

One of the news best received by investors around the world is the division of the Chinese technology giant Alibaba into six units, which will individually look for ways to raise funds, including through an initial public offering.

In addition, in a conference with the IMF (International Monetary Fund), China’s Prime Minister, Li Qiang, said that the country will be able to achieve the economic growth target for this year. According to Qiang, the government is making an effort to stimulate consumption and investment.

The news coming from China boosts companies that produce and export raw materials. Vale’s common stock closed up 1.54%. Petrobras’ common and preferred shares rose 1.06% and 1.31%, respectively. Suzano’s common shares advanced 2.27%.

In the United States, the caution provoked by the crisis of medium-sized banks seems to have been left behind, according to the evaluation of the Mirae Asset team. Now, attention is once again turned to interest rate policy.

According to Mirae, most market agents are betting on a new increase of 0.25 percentage points at the next meeting of the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US central bank), in May. But this perspective may change after the release of the consumer inflation index, the PCE, which comes out next Friday (31).

With this relief from news about banks, indices in New York rose. The Dow Jones closed up 1%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 1.42% and 1.79%, respectively.

From Europe, the news that pleased investors is the return of Sergio Ermotti to command UBS and lead the acquisition of Credit Suisse. The aim is to take advantage of the Swiss banker’s experience in rebuilding the bank.

In Brazil, there is a wait for the release of the new tax rules. The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, should present the proposal to deputies leading the bench later this Wednesday, at the official residence of the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies, informed the leader of the PP in the House, André Fufuca (PP-MA), and two sources accompanying the process.

Also noteworthy are the credit statistics, released this Wednesday by the BC (Central Bank). Loan concessions in Brazil fell by 9.5% in February compared to the previous month, with the total stock of credit retreating 0.1% in the period, to R$5.319 trillion.

In the month, financing concessions with free resources, in which loan conditions are freely negotiated between banks and borrowers, fell by 9.6% in relation to the previous month. For operations with earmarked resources, which meet the parameters established by the government, there was a decrease of 8.6% in the period.

According to Nicolas Tingas, economist at Acrefi (National Association of Credit, Financing and Investment Institutions), says that the numbers show a significant drop in the supply of credit, especially for companies.

“There are several reasons for this decrease in the volume of credit available. High inflation, high interest rates, the end of incentives given during the election period, high household debt, the Americanas crisis that restricted supply to companies, among others”, says Tingas.

Another fact that affected the market, especially with interest rates, was the creation of jobs. Brazil opened 241,785 formal job openings in February, according to the Caged (General Register of Employed and Unemployed), released this Wednesday by the Ministry of Labor and Employment.

Last month’s result comes from the record of 1.95 million admissions and 1.70 million dismissals and was above expectations. A survey by the Reuters agency pointed to the expectation of creating 161,000 jobs.