Disappointment and fear of punishment deflate demonstrations on 8/1 this year

The disproportionate treatment given by the Federal Supreme Court to those involved in the acts of vandalism in Praça dos Três Poderes on January 8, 2023, the large security apparatus organized for this year in Brasília and the disappointment with politics should prevent protests on Monday (8). One year after the depredation that changed the course of national politics, the federal capital will be the stage for the “Unshaken Democracy” event, organized by the government and the Federal Supreme Court (STF).

“To date, there is nothing that causes greater concern […] There is no chance of repeating what happened on January 8, 2023 on January 8, 2024”, said the interim Minister of Justice and Public Security, Ricardo Cappelli. He took over from Flávio Dino, who is on vacation, and has coordinated an Integrated Actions Protocol with the security forces of the Federal District, Federal Police and Federal Highway, Institutional Security Office of the Presidency of the Republic and the National Force.

Trying to use the date as political capital, the Lula government is preparing an act in the Black Room of the National Congress, in which the president himself, ministers of the Federal Supreme Court, the presidents of the Senate and the Chamber, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) and Arthur Lira (PP-AL), among other senators, deputies, governors and state and municipal executive, legislative and judicial authorities. In total, 500 people are expected to participate in the event.

Analysts interviewed by People’s Gazette, assess that the expected tranquility results from the depletion of demonstrations against the government which, in turn, is due to popular frustration and disbelief in relation to the effectiveness of these actions. Furthermore, there is also fear that harsh sanctions, such as the imprisonment of thousands of people and the sentences applied by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) to those arrested in 8/1, will occur again.

Fear of expressing yourself publicly

Fabrício Rebelo, jurist and head of CEPEDES (Law and Security Research Center), states that the fear that the population has of expressing themselves is undeniable. “The absolutely disproportionate treatment given to the acts of January 8, 2023, including unsustainable legal interpretations, sent a clear message to society that popular demonstrations are no longer a guaranteed right in Brazil and that, if they displease the system, they can be treated as criminals, exactly as occurs in authoritarian regimes”.

According to the jurist, there is no record of more than a thousand people being arrested at a single time during a protest in a real democracy. “Behold, the overwhelming majority of them did not participate in any predatory act. Therefore, it is natural for the population to be afraid of exercising a right that is only supported in effective democracies, when the country no longer seems to live under one of them”, he explains.

In total, 2,151 people were arrested on the day of the protests and the following day, January 9, in the camp in front of the Army Headquarters, in Brasília. Of these, 30 people have been convicted by the Supreme Court to date, with sentences ranging from 13 to 17 years in prison.

The defendants who appear in videos, photos and selfies inside the buildings, celebrating the invasion, received the heaviest sentences and were convicted of five crimes: violent abolition of the Democratic Rule of Law, coup d’état, qualified damage, deterioration of listed heritage and association armed criminal.

In his votes to stipulate the convictions, minister Alexandre de Moraes adopted a standard narrative model, in which the protest against Lula’s election is understood as an alleged crime against democracy, until reaching the invasion of the buildings, followed by the framing of conduct of each person in the crimes charged.

Any procedural objections from defense lawyers were rejected, such as the STF’s lack of competence to carry out the trial. So far, it has not been clarified, for example, what is the link between the protesters and someone with privileged jurisdiction, which would justify the judgment being carried out by the Supreme Court without having been processed by lower courts.

The people who received shorter sentences, up to 3 years, did not have photos, videos or audio. The defendants who agreed to make a non-criminal prosecution agreement with the Attorney General’s Office, including people who did not go to the Esplanada dos Ministérios on January 8th, but who were camped in front of the Army HQ, received this type of penalty, plus fines.

Abuses and constitutional abuses

Cappelli himself highlighted that the actions of the government and the STF are responsible for the expected tranquility predicted for the date. He stated that there are no concerns that the acts of 8/1 last year would be repeated due to the government’s strong attitudes and also because of the “clear limit established by the Federal Supreme Court which, with a firm, energetic attitude, in line with what which our Constitution recommends, established and has established a clear limit”, said Lula’s subordinate.

But this vision has encountered dissonance, including within the Federal Senate itself. On Wednesday night (4) senator Rogério Marinho (PL-RN) released a manifesto, signed by 29 other opposition senators, declining to participate in the government’s “democratic act”.

“The true defense of democracy requires concrete actions, not empty and contradictory symbolism. The omission of the Lula government on that date and the partiality in the investigations show the urgent need for a real commitment to democratic principles and the reestablishment of democratic normality!” stated Marinho in his profile on X (formerly Twitter).

In the manifesto, the full text of which can be accessed here, the senators criticize the excesses of the STF, always practiced under the pretext of defending democracy.

Disbelief and frustration

In recent years, the lack of a practical and valid reaction to the exceptional actions of the STF has also generated frustration and fear, which has caused people to stop speaking out. Rebelo recalls that, in 2021, the largest popular demonstrations in recent Brazilian history took place, with millions of people on the streets.

By calling the population to protests, Bolsonaro signaled a strong reaction against ongoing institutional exaggerations, mainly coming from the STF. However, even in the face of the massive popular response, there was no forceful containment of the Court’s actions.

“He created an immense public expectation that this would happen, and inexplicably backed down, apologizing for his excesses in the September 9 letter. This frustrated the belief that the demonstrations would be of any use and they have since started to empty out,” he explains.

According to sociologist and independent analyst, Antônio Flávio Testa, a large part of the population “is panicked by cowardice and injustice”. He points out the disbelief and frustration of the population who feel wronged and who, therefore, refuse to “fall into another trap” by attending demonstrations.

Even if they believe in and like Bolsonaro, people see all this with different eyes, including the Armed Forces, with which they were disappointed, says the sociologist. “There will be no public, in my opinion, because it does not justify acting in a farce of this type. There is more to do, a lot of bills and taxes on the worker’s shoulders,” he said.

Close to her voters, federal deputy Julia Zanatta (PL-SC) has also witnessed citizens’ fear. She claims that people are paralyzed, afraid to speak out. “They are discredited. They no longer believe in justice.”

Moraes sends an advance message to potential protesters

Recent statements by Minister Alexandre de Moraes leave no doubt about how uncertain the act of demonstrating in Brazil has become. In an interview with the magazine Lookthe minister stated that “anyone who intends to celebrate the 8th is committing a crime, because they are celebrating the coup attempt, they are instigating a new coup attempt”.

The minister also warned, in a tone that was still threatening, that it would be important for people to be careful with their actions, so as not to later accuse the Public Ministry and the Judiciary of being “too strict”.

André Marsiglia, a lawyer specializing in freedom of expression, states that people are afraid to exercise their freedom of expression, whether online or in meetings or demonstrations in the streets – a freedom that is guaranteed by the Federal Constitution. “I notice this in the questions people ask me on social media about whether or not it is illegal to demonstrate on the 8th.”

The lawyer explains that this uncertainty arises from not knowing for sure what the “reaction of the Powers, the STF, especially in the case of a new demonstration, even if peaceful, will be. There is fear that any demonstration will be understood as incitement to a crime.” Marsiglia says that the Federal Constitution, in its 5th article, only establishes that demonstrations must be peaceful, without mentioning their content.

The STF itself, in other times, has already issued a ruling in favor of freedom of expression, regardless of the content. Marsiglia recalls that the Supreme Court “already understood, for example, that it was legal to speak out about something illegal, when it allowed the marijuana march in 2011. Coming together for a cause considered illegal is not condoning a crime, according to the jurisprudence of the STF itself” .

But the use of double standards does not stop there. In the same video as the interview with Look, Moraes claims that, in relation to the act called by the government, there is no crime, as it is intended to “remember that the institutions are strong and resisted an attempted coup. I will be here in Brasília, at this event, showing the strength of Brazilian institutions.”

Left-wing movements will demonstrate against Bolsonaro in São Paulo

The most likely outlook for Monday is that only the left will take to the streets. The Povo Sem Medo and Frente Brasil Popular movements are calling for a demonstration scheduled for 5pm on Avenida Paulista, in São Paulo, on Monday (8).

The theme is: “Brazil unites in defense of democracy”. The movements are preparing banners and posters with the phrase: “the fight against Bolsonarism remains strong”. The pre-candidate for mayor of São Paulo and federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL-SP) confirmed his presence. Members of the PT, PSOL and federal government ministers are expected at Paulista.