Demonstration in São Paulo will signal the direction of Bolsonaro and the right

The call made by Jair Bolsonaro (PL) for a political event on Avenida Paulista, in São Paulo, this Sunday afternoon (25), aims to strengthen his position in defense against accusations of involvement in an alleged attempted coup d’état. However, the main effect of this demonstration will be to point out the directions that the former president and the right will take in the country’s politics. While investigations by the Federal Police (PF) advance within the scope of the operation Tempus VeritatisBolsonaro and his allies are betting on a risky strategy due to the judicial siege, relying on the symbolism of political force.

Amid this trial by fire, the high risks lie in the possibility that the act will generate more legal charges against Bolsonaro, if he proves unable to avoid excesses in the demonstration, whether through speeches or written messages. The risk even includes a possible arrest order for allegedly promoting “anti-democratic acts”. The former president and his allies want to draw attention to the growing persecution aimed at removing him from the power game.

“There was the election, the TSE [Tribunal Superior Eleitoral] announced the result, makes me ineligible without a crime, then there is talk of arresting me. What’s the next step, executing me in prison? Should I flee Brazil, ask for asylum?”, said the former president on Wednesday (21).

“A year and two months after the last elections, Bolsonaro’s name is the most talked about, revealing the government leaders’ despair at his positive notoriety and his warm reception everywhere he goes,” said the opposition leader in the Senate. , Rogério Marinho (PL-RN).

As a precaution, Bolsonaro rejects the presence of banners and posters

In a strategy to avoid increasing tension with the STF, Bolsonaro asked supporters not to carry banners and posters “against anyone”, to prevent a repeat of what happened in past demonstrations, with even calls for military intervention.

In the video call for the event, on the 12th, he stated that he intends to defend democracy and himself against “all the accusations that have been made in recent months”. On Wednesday (21), the former president stated that he could no longer be threatened with arrest at any time. In another video, he calls the act “disciplined and peaceful” and asks supporters not to hold events in other cities.

In theory, there is also a fear that the act will not reach the estimated number of protesters, of 500,000 to 700,000, to convey strong popular support. The photograph is completed by the list of politicians on the stage. Expected for the demonstration are the mayor of the capital of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (MDB), the governors of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans); from Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (New); from Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil); and from Santa Catarina, Jorginho Mello (PL). The presence of almost a fifth of the 584 congressmen is still expected, with around 100 deputies and 10 to 15 senators. The rumor of the presence of the Israeli ambassador, Daniel Zonshine, was not confirmed.

Fábio Wajngarten, Bolsonaro’s lawyer, stated on Thursday (22) that the expectation for the act “is the best possible”.

“Bolsonaro will have a great opportunity to take stock of his government. He will talk about the moment after the elections and the future of Brazil”, he commented after the former president’s testimony to the PF in the investigation investigating an alleged coup attempt, in which he was instructed to remain silent due to the lack of access to the lieutenant’s testimony. -colonel and former aide-de-camp Mauro Cid and the transcriptions of messages on seized devices, preventing full knowledge of the reasons that led to Bolsonaro’s summons.

Week marked by rumors of arrest and threats from government officials

Throughout the week, the former president’s lawyers tried three times to postpone his testimony – but in each case their request was rejected by Minister Alexandre de Moraes, rapporteur of the case at the Federal Supreme Court (STF). The silence also served to prevent Bolsonaro from contradicting the others being investigated. Former ministers Augusto Heleno (Institutional Security Office), Walter Braga Netto (Civil House and Defense), Paulo Sérgio Nogueira (Defense), among others, gave statements to the PF at the same time as him, to avoid combinations. From the beginning of the day, rumors circulated about the preparation of cells for the group’s arrest.

Wajngarten stated that Bolsonaro’s defense team contacted Minister Luiz Fux, from the STF, asking him to disregard the preventive habeas corpus request filed by lawyer Jeffrey Chiquini da Costa, with the aim of preventing the former president from being detained for leading the political act. For experts, the motivation for this would be if he made an apology or incitement to crime. They, however, disagree on the hypothesis that a mere summons already leads to preventive detention, motivated by the fear of violating public peace. This would occur because the former president is currently being investigated for alleged participation in crimes against democracy.

According to the script for Sunday’s act, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro was chosen to open with a prayer, followed by the playing of the National Anthem. Next, three-minute speeches are expected from deputies Gustavo Gayer (PL-GO), Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG) and Coronel Zucco (PL-RS); of senators Magno Malta (PL-ES), Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and Rogério Marinho (PL-RN), in addition to the governor of São Paulo and pastor Silas Malafaia, whose Church Assembly of God Vitória em Cristo is the sponsor of the sound cars.

In a video released on Sunday (18), Malafaia asked the faithful to pray and fast for 12 hours in “favor of our nation” on the day of Bolsonaro’s testimony to the PF. He reinforced the request that posters and banners not be taken. In a message released on social media this Saturday (24), the religious leader predicted that the event will be a peaceful celebration of democracy, with the protection of the Military Police. Bolsonaro arrived in São Paulo this Saturday (24) in the morning and is staying at Palácio dos Bandeirantes, headquarters of the São Paulo government, at the invitation of the governor.

Under the motto of “God, country, family and freedom”, the demonstration contests the prospect of the former president facing a sentence of up to 23 years in prison and being ineligible for more than 30 years. He has already been convicted by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for suspecting the security of the electronic voting system. Bolsonaro and his defense deny in their statements any involvement in irregularities.

Act to show popular support is the main bet

Bolsonaro’s big bet to try to show political strength, despite being ineligible until 2030, depends on the total number of people present and the participation of other relevant names in politics. It is no coincidence that there has been a strong mobilization on the right in recent days in favor of February 25th. If he shows the ability to continue aggregating the majority of conservative forces around him, Bolsonaro will once and for all assume the role of main electoral leader in 2024 and 2026. Otherwise, the right will tend to reorganize itself with other names. Research by the Atlas Intel institute, released this month, indicates that 42.2% of the population see investigations against Bolsonaro as persecution and 40.5% disagree.

From 2019 and 2022, when he was president, there were a series of protests in favor of Bolsonaro, criticizing the Judiciary. On September 7, 2021, for example, the former president stated, also on Avenida Paulista, that he would no longer comply with decisions made by Alexandre de Moraes. “The people’s patience has run out, they still have time to ask for their cap and go about their business”, he said. Two days later, he released a letter in which he said he had “no intention of attacking any of the powers”.

In response to the organization of Sunday’s event, the São Paulo PT directory presented a representation to the State’s Public Electoral Ministry (MPE), claiming that the act could be repeated on January 8, when the headquarters of the Three Powers were invaded. In addition to studying other measures to stop the event, government officials sought in plenary sessions and in the press to scare away participants, including the threat of mass arrests.