Demonstration in Paulista gives message to Brasília about right-wing resilience

The demonstration called by former president Jair Bolsonaro and held on Sunday (25) on Avenida Paulista, in São Paulo, sent the message to the Federal Supreme Court (STF), the Lula government and Congress that an important portion of the Brazilian right, Even under the pressure of many measures restricting freedoms that it has suffered in recent years, it is willing to continue demonstrating in the streets.

The message of resilience in the political struggle, transmitted through the massive presence of the people, was reiterated in the speeches at the event. In one of his first speeches, federal deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG) stated: “Our enemy spent 12 years trying to become the Presidency of the Republic, and succeeded after 12 years. We do not have the right to have less persistence than the our enemy.”

People dressed in green and yellow filled the avenue for the demonstration, which was called by Bolsonaro on February 12, four days after the former president and his allies were the target of the Federal Police’s Tempus Veritatis investigation. According to data released by the São Paulo Public Security Secretariat, around 750 thousand people were in Paulista.

For political scientist Adriano Cerqueira, professor at Ibmec-BH and the Federal University of Ouro Preto (Ufop), Sunday’s event gave two main messages to the political world: “the great capacity for political mobilization that the right has today, especially that who has Bolsonaro as his main political reference”; and the strong rejection by Brazilian Christians of Lula’s position against Israel, in an environment in which the second most raised flag after the Brazilian one was the Israeli one.

“In just a few days, Bolsonaro knew how to mobilize thousands of people, perhaps even close to a million, in Paulista. And he gave a message to the political community for this year’s municipal elections and for the general elections in two years’ time: he has, yes, , the power to influence and transfer votes”, says Cerqueira.

Bolsonaro, who cried at several moments during the event, refuted accusations that he had attempted a coup in his speech. “A coup is a tank on the street, nothing like that was done in Brazil”, stated the former president. Highlighting that the basis of the accusation is a draft state defense decree, he added: “Coup using the Constitution? Have patience!”

The former president also called for the pacification of the country and the amnesty of those arrested on January 8th: “We have already given amnesty in the past to those who committed barbarities in Brazil. Now we are asking all 513 deputies and 81 senators for an amnesty project so that it can be justice in Brazil”. He said that whoever carried out vandalism on January 8, 2023 must pay, but the penalties that are being imposed “beyond the minimum level of reasonableness”.

The most forceful speech was that of pastor Silas Malafaia, who cited the episode of Cleriston Pereira da Cunha’s death. “The prosecutor asked for his release and Alexandre de Moraes didn’t give it. He died. Cleriston’s blood is on Alexandre de Moraes’ hands and he will report it to God,” said Malafaia.

The pastor also compared the situation in Brazil to that of other countries to highlight the crisis experienced by Brazilian democracy. “Think, deputies, senators and governors. Stop and think. In a Democratic State of Law, like the United States, Germany, France, Italy and so on, no one is afraid to speak in demonstrations. No one is afraid to express their thoughts on social media. Look what’s happening in Brazil. Deputies, senators and Brazilians afraid to speak. What kind of democracy is this?”, he asked.

Malafaia also stated that the people “are the supreme power of this nation” and, quoting the Bible, added: “I will not fear what man can do to me”. At the end, he invited those present to sing an excerpt from the Brazilian Independence anthem .

In addition to a political message, the event in Paulista reinforces the campaign for amnesty or impeachment

For sociologist and political analyst Eduardo Matos de Alencar, the demonstration was important as a “great show of strength on the eve of the municipal elections”. “It’s an important message for anyone who thinks of Bolsonarism as a declining force or of Bolsonaro as a figure who won’t matter being on their side in terms of the electoral result,” he says.

Rodrigo Marinho, master in Constitutional Law from the University of Fortaleza (Unifor), says that the demonstration could also be an important building block in the construction of a possible impeachment of minister Alexandre de Moraes. “Obviously, the less popular the Supreme Court is, the more popular the measures against the Supreme Court are. I believe that both Alexandre de Moraes’ and Lula’s impeachment requests tend to gain more strength”, he states.

Furthermore, according to Marinho, Bolsonaro made the message clear about the importance of taking the issue of amnesty to Congress. “This should be highlighted during Congress next week. There are several battles to be won, and this is just one of many that need to be won so that we can return to institutional normality. Perhaps today’s demonstration is the first step towards the end of the clear procedural abuses committed against Bolsonaro and several other people, many of them without the prerogative of jurisdiction, as is the case with Bolsonaro himself”, he comments.

For Alencar, from a political-institutional point of view, the demonstration should not have immediate results, since Bolsonaro “did not demonstrate the willingness to directly confront his tormentors” and, furthermore, there was no willingness to channel popular energy around debates such as the reform of the Judiciary and the control of the excessive powers of the STF.

“Without this, it is very difficult to believe that the Supreme Court, with all the signs it has given so far, will in any way curb the abuses that have been committed. It is more likely that Bolsonaro and his supporters will continue to be harassed by this lawfare. The process will continue until the judges consider that they have enough elements to compose a piece, however legally inconsistent it may be. At some point, it will become the subject of an investigation that should result in the conviction of those involved. And, that’s it, a demonstration like this shouldn’t affect it in any way.”