Datafolha: Tarcísio is approved by 33% in the city of SP – 03/11/2024 – Power

The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), has his administration approved by 33% of voters in the state capital. For another 37% of São Paulo residents, his government is normal, and 26% consider him bad or terrible. They say they don’t know how to evaluate 3% of those interviewed.

The numbers are from the most recent Datafolha survey, carried out in the city of São Paulo between Thursday (7) and Friday (8).

In relation to the previous survey, from August 2023, Tarcísio had a positive fluctuation in approval, within the margin of error. At the time, his management was approved by 30% of voters in the capital of São Paulo. Another 38% considered it average, while for 27% it was bad or very bad.

The most recent survey included 1,090 interviews with people aged 16 and over. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points. The survey also revealed voting intentions in the 2024 municipal race.

In the city, the governor finds more resistance among those with higher education, among whom disapproval of his administration is 37%. It also tends to get worse in the segment with incomes of 5 to 10 minimum wages and more than 10 wages, with 41% and 38% disapproval, respectively.

Government approval, on the other hand, records better rates among men — 37% excellent/good, compared to 30% among women — and among evangelicals, the basis of Bolsonarism, where it reaches 43%.

Tarcísio was elected in 2022 with 55% of valid votes, sponsored by Jair Bolsonaro (PL), for whom he was Minister of Infrastructure. At the time, the governor was warned by the campaign team that he would not be elected without the support of the former president, but that his support would not be enough. In other words, he needed to seek the vote of the moderate center-right.

Since then, Tarcísio has walked a fine line, balancing his demonstrations so as not to lose Bolsonaro voters, nor center voters.

When he establishes friendly relations with President Lula (PT), for example, the governor is accused by Bolsonaro supporters of being too moderate and fraternizing with his opponent. When he emphatically aligns himself with Bolsonaro, as when he participated in the event on Avenida Paulista alongside him in February, those around Tarcísio need to calculate the political risks of exposure.

According to Datafolha, the governor’s management is evaluated as excellent or good by 21% of those who have the PT as their preferred party and by 87% of those who opt for the PL.

Allies say that the governor is very loyal and grateful to his political godfather, and that he would not let go of his hand in a difficult situation.

In the last demonstration called by Bolsonaro, on February 25th, those around him consider that the exposure was not negative because the act showed that Bolsonaroism still has a lot of strength, and that the governor made a moderate speech, consistent with his style.

In 2026, Tarcísio could seek re-election or run for President, a hypothesis denied by the governor and interlocutors.

They say that the project he is developing in São Paulo is long-term, and the most strategically interesting thing would be to complete the cycle in the state and reap the results. The wing of secretary Gilberto Kassab (PSD), who is moving to be Tarcísio’s vice-president in the race for re-election, is the biggest defender of this plan. But the governor, even so, is considered by many to be the name that has the most strength among the allies of the former president, who is ineligible, for a potential presidential run against Lula.