Datafolha: Right to guns and abortion divides Brazilians – 7/1/2023 – Power

A new ideological map of Brazil shows a country that is both conservative and contradictory, with high support for some flags considered progressive. Indeed, the two issues that most polarize the population are access to firearms and the right of women to decide on abortion.

The drawing was made by Datafolha in an unprecedented set of questions, asked to 2,010 interviewees in 112 cities from the 12th to the 14th of June. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.

The result is a mixture, in which the average Brazilian defends the acceptance of homosexuality, but rejects gay marriage; thinks that nowadays you see racism in everything, but agrees that blacks have less access to the job market.

But if the assertions for opposing sides are fascinating, it is in the divergence that the contradictory character becomes more evident. 44% of respondents think that women have the right to decide on abortion, 25% agreeing with the proposal completely and 20% partially agreeing – due to rounding, the sum does not add up to 45%.

Already 52% are against, 39% endorse with certainty and 13%, in part.

Brazilian law today only allows the termination of pregnancy in cases of rape, risk of death for the mother or anencephaly of the fetus. Its flexibility has been an electoral theme since the 1985 redemocratization, and the banner of liberation did not prosper even under so-called progressive presidents, such as Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), or conservatives, such as Michel Temer (MDB) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

Women (44%) and men (45%) are equally in favor of the right, while agreement rises to 61% among the youngest (16 to 24 years old), more educated (59%) and Lula voters in the second round of 2022 (54%). Support predictably drops to 35% among those who voted for Bolsonaro, 30% among evangelicals and, most importantly, 39% among the poorest.

After all, it is the group of those who earn up to 2 minimum wages that covers half of the electorate in the Datafolha sample, thus helping to explain why the subject does not advance in the country. Governments and Congress ultimately reflect society.

The issue of access to firearms, a taboo broken by Bolsonaro’s constant campaign for its flexibility, now reversed by Lula, is even more controversial. 50% are in favor of the right (33% totally, 17% partially), while 48% are against (37% very much, 11% in part).

Here the political schism becomes clearer. Among Bolsonarist voters, 67% are in favor. Already 62% of lulistas are against. Men (61% in favor) want guns more than women (57% against).

As for the items in which Brazilian certainties are shown, strong opinions emerge and, at first glance, along opposite lines.

78% of the population believe, for example, that blacks have less access to jobs than whites, a rate that goes to 85% among blacks, 79% among browns and 74% among whites. At the same time, 75% agree with the phrase “these days, people see racism in everything” — with a homogeneous cut between declared race.

The same contrast can be seen among those who say they are in favor of accepting homosexuality, 75% of the respondents. A similar rate, 72%, agree with the idea that a family is only made up of a man and a woman.

Here, religious cleavage weighs: among evangelicals (29% of the respondents), the rates go to 60% and 88%, respectively, while among Catholics (47% of the sample) they are 83% and 72%. The first group, still a minority, tends to be more organized and politically vocal, and is a central part of the Bolsonarist base in the country.

In 2011, same-sex stable unions were considered constitutional by the Federal Supreme Court, and became a reality as the National Council of Justice obliges notary offices to draw them up. But on paper there hasn’t yet been a legal change in Congress for converting the instrument into marriage, as with heterosexuals — let alone full acceptance by the churches, which is another matter.

Faith, by the way, is one of the main ideological pillars of Brazil. For 84% of the respondents, “the church should be part of people’s life plans”, while only 14% disagreed with the statement. Questioned about the biblical maxim “the humiliated will be exalted”, a banner usually associated with evangelical groups, 79% of respondents agree with it.

When flags associated with both progressivism and conservatism, if not its most radical form embodied in Bolsonarism, are put up by Datafolha researchers, the result is similar.

The item that recorded the highest agreement in the entire questionnaire was support for more women in leadership positions, 94% —and only 5% negative. The admission of global warming, today an international consensus usually criticized in Bolsonar circles, reaches 90% acceptance.

On the other hand, 78% of Brazilians say that vaccination in themselves and their children is a personal decision, reflecting a libertarian slogan adopted by Bolsonaro to undermine immunization against Covid-19 in the pandemic, something widely condemned by public health experts. Only 21% disagree with the premise.

72% of respondents agree that environmental laws have to be more flexible to promote the advancement of agribusiness, compared to 23% against it. The theme also became part of the national political dispute, with the massive support of the agro for Bolsonaro before, during and after his government.

Under Lula, the tension continues, with the president’s succession of sentences against businessmen in the area and the clash in Congress over the Ministry of the Environment, commanded by Marina Silva. The petista vetoed the emptying of functions of the portfolio approved by Congress, in articulation promoted by the centrão with leaders of the agribusiness group, who see the minister as procer of environmental obstacles to the sector.