Datafolha: Boulos and Nunes tie for 1st in São Paulo – 03/11/2024 – Power

Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) and Ricardo Nunes (MDB) technically lead in a tie in the new Datafolha survey on the 2024 electoral race for the Mayor of São Paulo.

With the national polarization consolidated in the municipal election, Boulos has 30% and Nunes has 29% — they are isolated from the second group of pre-candidates. The psolist has President Lula (PT) as his electoral leader, while the mayor has the support of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

Tabata Amaral (PSB) scores 8%, followed by Marina Helena (Novo) with 7%, Kim Kataguiri (União Brasil) with 4% and Altino (PSTU) with 2%.

Another 14% declare a blank or invalid vote, while 6% do not know who to vote for. The margin of error is plus or minus three points.

Considering that União Brasil does not launch Kim, given that the party’s main leader in São Paulo, Milton Leite, is an ally of Nunes and may choose to support the mayor, the tie remains, but with the Emedebista numerically ahead.

In this situation, Nunes has 30% compared to Boulos’ 29%. Tabata appears with 9%, Marina Helena has 7% and Altino, 1%. 16% are blank and null, and 7% don’t know.

In the hypothesis that Tabata is not a candidate, since Lula can work to unify the center-left parties around Boulos, the survey shows the two rivals ahead with the same 33%.

Marina Helena has 8%, and Altino has 2%. Another 17% declare a blank or null vote, and 7% do not know.

Datafolha interviewed 1,090 voters on Thursday (7) and Friday (8). The survey is registered with the Electoral Court under protocol SP-08862/2024.

The first round of the election will be on October 6th, and the campaign will officially begin in August.

The research released this Monday (11) is not directly comparable to the previous one, carried out in August 2023, as the competitors are not the same. Still, it is possible to notice that Nunes gained ground — he scored 24% compared to Boulos’ 32% in the last round.

The result reflects the improvement in the mayor’s evaluation, who had 23% approval in August and now has 29%.

Names that do not orbit the Lula-Bolsonaro polarization, such as Tabata and Kim, did not achieve the same results — she reached 11% in August, and he reached 8%.

The performance of Marina Helena, who will contest her first election as head of the ticket, draws attention in the survey.

The other Novo pre-candidate tested in research on the municipal dispute, last year, was at a lower level: Vinicius Poit, who scored 2%.

For the director of Datafolha, Luciana Chong, some of the interviewees who declared their vote for the Novo pre-candidate may have been mistaken and understood that the name in question was that of minister Marina Silva (Rede), who was a presidential candidate in three elections.

“Based on the name itself, there may have been confusion. When people actually know more about the candidates, this will be resolved,” says Chong.

In the spontaneous survey, Boulos scored 14% (8% in the previous one), and Nunes, 8% (4%). There are 2% who declare their vote “for the current mayor” and 1% who vote “for PT/Lula’s candidate”. In August, 72% said they didn’t know who to vote for — now it’s 60%.

Datafolha shows that Nunes and Boulos are also technically tied in terms of awareness and are much better known than their opponents.

In total, 85% say they know the mayor (30% a lot; 27% a little and 27% hear about him). There are 15% who do not know Nunes, vice-mayor elected with Bruno Covas (PSDB) in 2020, and who took office in May 2021 after the toucan’s death.

The first-term deputy and leader of the MTST (Homeless Workers Movement) is known by 83% of those interviewed (33% a lot, 23% a little and 27% heard about). Another 17% do not know Boulos, who lost to Covas in the 2020 election.

In August, 80% knew Boulos, and 79% knew Nunes.

Tabata already had 50% knowledge and went to 53%. Kim, one of the leaders of the MBL (Movimento Brasil Livre), is known by 33% (previously 36%). Both are in their second term as federal deputies.

Marina Helena, who is a substitute federal deputy and worked at the Ministry of Economy in the Bolsonaro government, is known by 46%. Altino, who was president of the Metro Workers Union, is known by 24%.

The race for Mayor of São Paulo will not have a PT candidate for the first time and nor does it have a root Bolsonaro supporter, but Lula and Bolsonaro are present in the election through pragmatic alliances with Boulos and Nunes.

Among those who declare themselves PT members, 49% prefer Boulos and 18% choose Nunes. Among the Bolsonarists, the mayor has 48%, and Boulos, 9%.

The repetition of national polarization is the tactic outlined by Lula, seeking the favor he had in the capital of São Paulo in 2022 by beating Bolsonaro by 53.5% to 46.5%.

Boulos, who has 30% in the general electorate, has better ratings among the elite. It scores 42% among those with higher education and 22% among those with primary education; 24% among those who receive up to two minimum wages and 41% among those who receive more than 10 minimum wages. It ranges from 53% among public employees to 19% among evangelicals.

The psolist has more voters in the center (49%) and the west (35%) and fewer in the north (27%).

Threatened by Bolsonaro’s rejection, but seeking the anti-PT vote, Nunes alternates between the center and Bolsonarism, demanding the support of 12 parties, the delivery of works and the memory of Covas.

The mayor, who scored 29%, received the most votes among conservatives. It reaches 34% among Catholics and 37% among evangelicals. Among young people aged 16 to 24, it is 13%. It has 35% among those with primary education and 25% among those with higher education; 30% among those who receive up to 2 minimum wages and 17% among those who receive more than 10 minimum wages.

Nunes has more voters in the north (36%) and west (32%) and fewer in the center (20%).

Tabata, who is trying to break the polarization by targeting Nunes and Boulos, has the support of former governors Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) and Márcio França (PSB) and is part of Lula’s base.

With 8% overall, it scores 10% among women, 21% among those who earn more than 10 minimum wages and 3% among those with primary education. It is voted most in the center (17%) and least in the east and west zones (4%).

Most are interested in the election

The survey shows that the majority of respondents, 39%, have a strong interest in the mayoral election, while 30% have a medium interest, 6% have a small interest and 24% have no interest.

In August, 38% were very interested, 31% had medium interest, 5% had little interest, and 26% had no interest.

The election for City Council arouses great interest for 31%, medium for 29%, little for 12%, and none for 27%.

In the previous round, 31% had great interest in the election of councilors and 29% had no interest at all.