Datafolha: Lula starts with a hard core of 19% of voters – 04/04/2023 – Bruno Boghossian

Lula started the third government with the support of a hard core formed by 19% of the electorate. They are Brazilians who, in the last week, told Datafolha that they voted for the PT, consider his administration great or good and believe that he will fulfill most of his campaign promises.

The data indicate that the president leaves with the support of a consistent Lulism – in the proportion of one in five voters. On the other hand, he also points to the existence of numerous groups whose support will depend on concrete results from the government.

The classification was prepared by Datafolha based on an analysis of three answers from each interviewee: the vote declared in the second round, the government’s evaluation and the expectation regarding the fulfillment of campaign promises.

The hard core corresponds to a range of intense lulistas (“heavy”, in the research’s nomenclature). Reflecting the picture of the last election, the group has income below the national average (67% receive up to two minimum wages) and less evangelicals (17%) than the general population (27%). There are more women (57%) than men (43%).

Only 6% of those voters said that Lula has done less than expected so far. They give more value to policies to combat poverty (21% said that this was the highlight of the government), and 22% answered that the president was not bad in any area. Nearly all (98%) believe management will continue to do well.

Lula’s hard core (19%) exceeds the percentage of “heavy” Bolsonaristas (12%) measured in September 2019. The comparison is possible even if one of the variables used by Datafolha in the past government was different (confidence in the statements of the president in place of expectations on promises).

Lula has at his extreme opposite 16% of the voters surveyed by Datafolha. They are the intense non-Lulistas: they did not vote for the PT, they consider the government bad or terrible and claim that no promise will be fulfilled. It is a group with a higher average income and greater representation in the Southeast than the faithful lulistas.

The current poll also mapped two segments that make up almost half of the electorate and that could be crucial in determining Lula’s strength going forward.

The first (21% of the electorate) is formed by moderate lulists: they voted for the PT, but do not approve of the government (they consider it regular, bad or terrible) or they approve of the government, but think that it will not fulfill most of its promises. Here, 38% say the president has done less than they expected. There are more voters in the Southeast (40%) than in the hard core (32%).

There is also the group of light non-Lulistas (27% of the electorate). They did not support the PT (they voted for Jair Bolsonaro, blank, null or did not attend the polls), they consider the government great, good, regular or did not know how to respond and believe that Lula will fulfill at least part of his promises.

Almost half of the “light” non-Lulistas think, however, that the PT’s management will be great or good – which should make the segment a target of government greed. In this group, there is a considerable concentration of low-income voters (57%), evangelicals (34%) and residents of the Southeast (50%).

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