Datafolha: Bolsonaro alienates 63% of voters; Lula, 42% – 03/12/2024 – Power

The support of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) leads 63% of voters in São Paulo to not vote at all for the candidate he nominated, while the portion that rejects a name supported by president Lula (PT) is 42% in city.

This is what the Datafolha survey shows, which finds Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), whose godfather is Lula, and Ricardo Nunes (MDB), Bolsonaro’s ally, tied and isolated in the leadership for the City of São Paulo, in an election marked by national polarization.

On the other hand, Bolsonaro’s support would lead 17% of those interviewed to definitely vote for whoever he nominated, and 19% would perhaps vote for the candidate he chose.

For Lula, the figures are 24% who would definitely vote for the name proposed by the PT member and 31% perhaps, which makes the current president a more efficient electoral campaigner than Bolsonaro.

The research also raised the potential of governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), who is one of Nunes’ main supporters, and former governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), who is the guarantor of Tabata Amaral (PSB).

In the case of Tarcísio, his support alienates 44% of those interviewed, certainly attracts 17% and perhaps makes another 35% vote for his candidate.

Alckmin, by indicating his support, causes 44% to stop voting for whoever he nominated, 14% to vote for sure and 39% maybe.

Datafolha interviewed 1,090 voters in the capital of São Paulo on Thursday (7) and Friday (8). The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points. The survey is registered with the Electoral Court under protocol SP-08862/2024.

The panorama is similar to that of the last survey, in August 2023, but current data shows an increase in rejection of a candidacy supported by Lula and, in the opposite direction, an increase in support for a candidate supported by Bolsonaro.

In the previous round, 37% rejected a name supported by Lula, 37% could vote for whoever he nominated and 23% would definitely vote. For Bolsonaro, 68% would not vote for his chosen one, 16% could vote and 13% would definitely vote.

Another question, however, is whether voters know who supports who — a fundamental factor for vote transfer to work.

According to Datafolha, 54% respond that Lula supports Boulos, but only 37% know that Bolsonaro entered into an alliance with Nunes.

A portion of 8% say that Bolsonaro will support Boulos, 5% say that the Bolsonaro candidate is Kim Kataguiri (União Brasil) — 33% do not know who the former president nominates.

The results show some confusion regarding political godparents.

For example, 32% say that Alckmin, who is Lula’s vice-president, will support Boulos — 11% correctly answer that his pre-candidate is Tabata, while 11% declare that he will support Nunes. Another 32% do not know who the former governor supports.

Regarding Lula, although the majority links him to Boulos, 20% do not know who his candidate is. There are 11% who think he supports Nunes, and 9% who believe he supports Marina Helena (Novo). Another 2% associate it with Tabata and 2% with Altino (PSTU).

While 44% say that Tarcísio will support Nunes, there are 9% who see Boulos as his supporter, 5% think it is Marina Helena, 4%, Tabata and 4%, Kim.

The Datafolha survey also shows that the percentage that would definitely vote for Lula’s candidate, which is 24% on average, goes to 38% among those with primary education, but drops to 9% among young people aged 16 to 24. Those who reject the name Lulista (42% overall) are 58% among evangelicals and 30% among students.

Bolsonaro, who on average influences 17% to vote for his ally, reaches 22% among retirees and 14% among those with primary education. The former president, who turns away 63%, makes 71% of black people and 57% of spiritualists or Kardecists not vote for his candidate.

Marta is the best-known runner-up, with 94%; Datena has 89%

Among the pre-candidates for vice mayor, Marta Suplicy (PT), Boulos’ deputy, is the best known, with 94% — 58% know her very well, 22% a little, 13% have heard of her and 6% don’t. know her.

Marta was mayor of São Paulo (2001 to 2004), as well as a deputy, senator and minister. The survey also showed that, for 16%, she was the best mayor of the capital of São Paulo in the last 40 years.

Another popular vice-president is TV presenter José Luiz Datena (PSB), who could become Tabata’s vice-president. He is known by 89% — 45% a lot, 26% a little, 19% have heard about him and 11% don’t know him.

The names that are considered to form a ticket with Nunes, such as PM colonel Mello Araújo and delegate Raquel Gallinati, both from PL, are largely unknown (81% and 89%, respectively).