Datafolha: 53% rule out a new dictatorship in Brazil – 03/30/2024 – Power

The number of voters who see no chance of the dictatorship returning to Brazil is 53%, the highest in the historical series started ten years ago by Datafolha. 20% believe in this possibility, while 22% think there is a slight risk of democratic backsliding.

The findings are in the institute’s most recent survey, which interviewed 2,022 people in 147 Brazilian cities on March 19 and 20. The margin of error is plus or minus two points.

The military coup that gave rise to just over two decades of the most recent Brazilian dictatorship turns 60 this Sunday (31).

Datafolha has asked the question in seven surveys so far. Before the current one, in August 2022, 49% believed in the impossibility of a new dictatorship, with 25% seeing little risk and the same 20%, a definitive risk.

At that time, the electoral campaign was underway between the then president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), a retired Army captain who was an apologist for the 1964 military regime, and Lula (PT), who ended up being defeated by the current president in the second round. It was marked by Bolsonarist attacks on the electoral system.

Now, investigations by the Federal Police point to the existence of a plot to keep Bolsonaro in power after his defeat, which would be consummated during the coup acts on January 8, 2023. The siege on the former president has been closing with each revelation, in what he claims is political persecution.

The moment in the series when Brazilians were most assertive about the risk of the dictatorship returning was in October 2018, when Bolsonaro was elected president. At that time, 31% said yes to the question, while 42% ruled out the possibility and 19% saw little risk.

Questioned now, those 30% of those interviewed who say they are very or somewhat Bolsonaro supporters believe more in a return of the dictatorship. For 32%, the risk exists, while 45% say it does not. Another 22% think there is little chance.

The 41% of self-declared PT members or supporters are more skeptical: 59% do not believe in the return of totalitarianism, 24% see some chance and 13%, full conditions for it.

Those 21% of neutrals in the sample follow the same line, with 55% disbelieving the risk, 24% seeing some and 15% none.