Dallagnol impeachment was built quickly and discreetly in the TSE

The decision of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) which, by 7 to 0, annulled the mandate of federal deputy Deltan Dallagnol (Podemos-PR) was produced without fanfare, quickly and discreetly among the ministers. As seen in the session, there was no discussion between them, and there was already a prediction by the President of the Court, Alexandre de Moraes, that there would be no disagreements. The rapporteur, Benedito Gonçalves, Cármen Lúcia, Kassio Nunes Marques, Raul Araújo, Sérgio Banhos, Carlos Horbach and Moraes voted for ineligibility.

Before the trial, lawyers for the deputy and the PT met with just two ministers, Sérgio Banhos, by telephone the day before, and Carlos Horbach, in person and on the day of the session. The rapporteur, Benedito Gonçalves, sent a printed copy of his vote, of 37 pages, on Monday (15), so that his colleagues could know his arguments.

In general, justices exchange their votes with each other before a trial, but by e-mail. In this case, the option for paper, inside an envelope, was to avoid leaks and raise any kind of pressure or political interference on the ministers.

The PT’s appeal to reverse the decision of the Regional Electoral Court of Paraná, which had validated the candidacy, reached the Court on February 1, and was immediately forwarded to Justice Benedito Gonçalves, rapporteur of the case. In the same month, the Electoral Attorney General spoke out against the request for ineligibility. In March, the PT reinforced the claim, which was then answered by Dallagnol’s defense. With that, Benedito began to prepare his vote.

Signs indicated Dallagnol’s defeat at TSE

Despite the fact that the case was treated with discretion within the TSE, without attracting attention, several signs had been given in recent weeks that the deputy’s situation could become complicated.

The dean of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), Gilmar Mendes, without a new fact, returned to strongly attack Operation Lava Jato. In an interview last week, he said that the “Republic of Curitiba” was the “germ of fascism” and, in a session, he called the prosecutors “perverts”, for the way they conducted the investigations.

Deltan Dallagnol was also bothered by the harsh speeches given in the Chamber at the beginning of his term, recalling how the operation was dismantled in Brasília. In addition, he warned on social networks of the risk of censorship if the Fake News Bill was approved, supported by the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and also by ministers of the STF.

Even so, lawyers and prosecutors following the case did not expect such a quick and unanimous decision. At the very least, they thought that there would be some disagreement or that a minister would ask for a review, to postpone the decision after the vote of the rapporteur, Benedito Gonçalves. It was expected, however, that he would vote against Dallagnol, mainly due to the demonstrations of closeness with Lula, who nominated him, and with PT politicians since the beginning of the year.

In the MPF, decision was seen with astonishment

Despite this, the thesis he presented is controversial and goes against the express rule of the Clean Record Law and the most recent jurisprudence of the TSE itself. Hence the expectation for more discussion, from the legal point of view. The assessment is that the decision was political.

Within the Federal Public Ministry, the decision was seen with astonishment, even by former colleagues of Dallagnol who do not agree with the way he conducted Lava Jato. “In the groups I participate in, with major penalists, electoralists and constitutionalists, I haven’t seen anyone defending it from a legal point of view”, says a prosecutor, who asked not to be identified.

The reserve and fear of publicly criticizing the decision is why Dallagnol’s case has become emblematic, within the MPF, of what can happen to those who face powerful politicians. The former prosecutor left the institution in the midst of a bombardment against Lava Jato, especially from the higher courts and the National Congress.

“Of course it will stop. The message is the following: ‘don’t mess with powerful people, keep investigating only drug dealers, muambeiros and common bandits’”, says the prosecutor.

Is Moro next on the list?

In the political environment, speculation is that now the next target is former judge and senator Sergio Moro (União-PR). Despite this, the two processes that exist to revoke him, the PT and the PL, are still being processed in the Electoral Justice and should take longer to be judged. There is still time for evidence gathering, witness testimony, both by the prosecution and the defence. It is unlikely that the Paraná TRE will withdraw its mandate.

When an eventual appeal reaches the TSE, the parties will have more time to manifest themselves before the rapporteur votes and asks for a date for the trial. The tendency, however, is for the Court to remain hostile to the right.

In recent weeks, Alexandre de Moraes has been articulating the nominations for two vacancies that will arise, with the departure of Baths and Horbach, who occupy vacancies destined for law.

The preference is for lawyers close to the minister who allow him to maintain influence over the outcome of the most important processes. The main case to be judged, ready for decision, is the PDT’s request to make former president Jair Bolsonaro ineligible. It will be up to Lula to make the final choice about which lawyers will join.