Covid: country sees increase in cases in 2024 – 02/20/2024 – Health

From January 1st to February 10th, Brazil registered 196,460 new cases of Covid, according to data from the Ministry of Health’s Covid-19 panel in Brazil.

In relation to the moving average, the first six weeks of the year presented a rate of around 33.5 thousand cases per week. In the same period of 2023, this rate was 21 thousand.

The country therefore records a 154% increase in the moving average of coronavirus cases compared to last year. The number of deaths in the first six weeks of the year, however, was higher last year, reaching 3,751 deaths from January 1st to February 11th. In 2024, until the 10th, 1,127 deaths from Covid were recorded.

The Health department also reports an increase in demand for rapid Covid tests (antigen) in the first six weeks of the year. From December 23, 2023 (51st week of 2023) until February 17, 2024 (7th week of 2024), the number of tests to detect Sars-CoV-2 increased from 37,917 to 75,098. The data is preliminary and subject to change.

There is also the possibility that new cases will rise in the coming weeks, as infections resulting from crowds during Carnival have not yet been recorded. “We are expecting an increase in the number of Covid cases after Carnival, and these people who are returning from parties have to worry about those who didn’t go, since many of them could be at risk for serious illness”, he explains. infectious disease specialist Rosana Richtmann, from the Emílio Ribas Institute (SP).

For Renato Kfouri, pediatric infectious disease specialist and vice-president of SBIm (Brazilian Society of Immunizations), the current scenario in the country is consistent with the current situation of the disease, which ceased to be a health emergency on May 5, 2023. .

“The most reliable thing we have today is positivity, since Covid is not a notifiable disease. So when there is an increase in positive diagnoses in pharmacies and laboratories we can expect an increase in the number of cases in the country”, he explains.

“Unfortunately, we still have 200 deaths per week and, although the situation today is better compared to when we did not yet have vaccines, it is important to remember that, for a good part of these patients who worsen and are dying, early diagnosis, as well as starting treatment with the antiviral Paxlovid [da Pfizer, disponível nos hospitais privados e no SUS]is essential,” said Kfouri.

In particular, in populations that are at greater risk of worsening Covid, such as children under two years of age and elderly people over 70 years of age, it is important to reduce the risk of death with vaccination. “These are the extremes of age that end up being the vulnerable groups, which is why they must be vaccinated annually, in accordance with what is recommended in the PNI [Programa Nacional de Imunizações]”, he adds.

Positivity increases in the first few weeks

The country also recorded, for the first time since December 2022, a percentage of positive tests above 35%: it reached 36%, in the epidemiological week of February 4 to 10, 2024, compared to 20% in the first week of the year, which it was from December 31, 2023 to January 6, 2024.

Among the federative units with sufficient data for individual analysis, Paraná (46%), Minas Gerais (43%), Rio de Janeiro (38%), Distrito Federal (38%), São Paulo (35%) and Goiás (34% ) have the highest percentages.

The data, recorded by ITpS (Instituto Todos pela Saúde), is compiled from molecular diagnoses (RT-PCR) carried out by the laboratories Dasa, DB Molecular, Fleury, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, Hilab, HLAGyn and Sabin. The period analyzed does not yet include Carnival, which could result in an even greater increase in positivity.

Cases of positive diagnoses for the influenza A virus, which causes the flu, also increased in the first six weeks of the year, rising from 12% to 17% in the same period.