COP28: new draft does not mention abandonment of fossils – 12/11/2023 – Environment

The presidency of COP28, the UN (United Nations) climate summit, presented this Monday (11) a draft of the main document that must be adopted by the end of the conference, scheduled to be concluded on Tuesday (12 ).

The abandonment of fossil fuels — the most challenging item in the negotiations — appeared in the latest version of the text. Now, the text only deals with reducing the use of these energy sources.

“Reduce both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a fair, orderly and equitable way, to achieve net-zero emissions by around 2050, in keeping with science”, says the fifth action option in the text.

Such as Sheet he added, negotiations over the weekend went backwards compared to the last draft of the technical level of negotiations, published on Friday (9). According to diplomats, the different options on the gradual abandonment of fossil fuels only reflected the positions of countries in favor of the measure.

Nations with reservations about the proposal, such as Saudi Arabia, the United States and India, only began to take a position in informal consultations over the weekend.

This second draft calls on countries to act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and presents eight action items linked to the energy transition.

However, the statement uses the term “actions that may include, among others [as seguintes ações]” before presenting the various energy transition strategies. With this language, the actions are listed only as suggestions for countries to choose from.

These include accelerating the adoption of low-carbon technologies and reducing the use of coal with uncompensated emissions, as well as bringing emissions to zero from the energy sector using low- or zero-carbon fuels by mid-century.

Even the goals of tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency — which seemed firm in the drafts, after 123 countries signed a voluntary commitment to the measures — were weakened.

In addition to appearing only among these suggested actions, there is no longer a quantification of the goal. Previous drafts pointed to the objective of reaching 11 thousand GW of renewables by 2030, increasing energy efficiency between 2% and 4% per year over the same period.

The draft also mentions the reduction of methane emissions in this decade — the proposal, promoted by the Americans, concerns Brazilian diplomacy due to gas emissions in agriculture. Another item mentions the reduction of emissions in the transport sector, without detailing deadlines or targets.

Finally, the text deals with the elimination of “inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels”, described as those that encourage wasteful consumption and that do not take into account energy poverty or the just transition — that is, those that are not linked to measures combating social inequality.

“The success metrics of this COP will depend on the language on fossil fuels,” said Marina Silva, Minister of the Environment and Climate Change, in a press conference simultaneously with the release of the draft.

Still without evaluating the text, the minister argued that, “once the challenge of fossil fuels is included in the text, it is necessary to think of a working group to create the path for this process of accelerating renewables and slowing down fossil fuels”. Brazil will be able to continue this work when it assumes the presidency of COP30, in 2025.

Repercussions

In the midst of a COP hosted by an oil country and marked by protests over the end of fossil fuels, experts were disappointed with the path that has been charted for the conference’s final agreement.

“Each country will be able to argue that its subsidies are in compliance with this or not. In other words, the possibility of framing subsidies as poverty reduction, without clear criteria, does not allow us to separate the wheat from the chaff”, says Brazilian Natalie Unterstell, president from the Talanoa Institute.

For the Marshall Islands, one of the nations most threatened by rising sea levels due to global warming, the text is unacceptable.

“We didn’t come here to sign our death guarantee. We came here to fight for [limite de] 1.5ºC and there is only one way to achieve this goal: by eliminating fossil fuels”, said the country’s Minister of Natural Resources, John Silk.

Maria Mendiluce, president of We Mean Business, a coalition of companies supporting the climate agenda, called the latest draft “extremely worrying” and a “wish list of optional, meaningless actions.”

“Going from a draft with four options on eliminating fossils to a new draft with zero options also makes me question the process and who they are listening to. The world deserves transparency about how decisions are made,” he said.

Global balance

In addition to fossil fuels, the document, which summarizes the measures to be taken from the first global assessment of the Paris Agreement, brings other diagnoses and recommendations to base the review of countries’ climate goals (the so-called NDCs, acronym in English for nationally determined contributions).

The review should take place by 2025, in a process to be led by Brazil, which will preside over COP30 that year, in Belém (PA).

As Brazil wanted, the draft published this Monday encourages nations to align their new climate goals with the objective of containing global warming by up to 1.5ºC — what the country has called “mission 1.5”.

The same excerpt also suggests that the goals are valid for the entire economy and not just for some sectors, like the current Brazilian NDC.

NDCs that do not cover the entire country’s economy or that measure their emissions reductions relative to economic growth are among the tricks that countries used to save effort in reducing emissions when signing the Paris Agreement in 2015. Avoid the gotchas , especially from large emitters, is among the Brazilian challenges in the COP30 presidency.

Another paragraph of the text that pleases a recent position of Brazilian diplomacy is the one that emphasizes the importance of actions such as combating deforestation by 2030, in addition to forest restoration and the alignment of climate actions with those to protect biodiversity. These measures, says the document, must be guided by the new global biodiversity framework, approved in Montreal at the end of last year.

Brazil is among the countries that support the connection between the two agendas — something that was opposed by Brazilian negotiators in previous governments.

_{Reporter Ana Carolina Amaral traveled at the invitation of Avaaz, Instituto Arapyaú and Internews.}