Congress takes office, and Lula seeks conservative parties – 01/31/2023 – Politics

Federal deputies and senators who take office this Wednesday (1st) will slightly expand the bases loyal to Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in Congress, but, in general, maintain the pattern of the past legislature , with a conservative majority.

With this, the President of the Republic has tried to form his support base by distributing ministries and second-tier positions to center and direct parties.

The first wave included PSD, MDB and União Brasil, which occupied 9 of the 37 ministries, but Lula will also have to advance on Bolsonaro’s center (PP, PL and Republicans).

If all parliamentarians from the left and from the three attracted center and right parties support the president, he would have 287 seats in the Chamber and 47 in the Senate. The number guarantees a majority, but it is insufficient to approve amendments to the Constitution (308 and 49, respectively).

In October, Brazilian voters chose the new 513 federal deputies and 27 senators —the Senate has an eight-year term, compared to four for the Chamber, which causes it to alternate the seats in dispute by one-third and two-thirds at each election.

Bolsonaro’s PL won 23 deputies and totaled 99, becoming the largest group elected in the Chamber in the last 24 years, since the former PFL —which would give rise to Democratas, today part of União Brasil— had 106 parliamentarians in the reelection of the then president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB), in 1998.

The party made the champion of the polls — the then councilor of Belo Horizonte Nikolas Ferreira, owner of 1.4 million votes — and three of the four most voted parliamentarians in São Paulo, Carla Zambelli, Eduardo Bolsonaro and Ricardo Salles.

Despite this, the other two largest parties in the centrão, PP and Republicans, had a drop in their representations, which led to the scenario that the Bolsonarist base remained more or less the same size, with a slight reinforcement of the more radical wing.

In other words, the new configuration of the party in the Chamber tends to have a much more Bolsonarist face than the old one, based largely on the physiologism that characterizes the centrão. But the accounting of the centrão chairs as a whole does not show relevant differences.

Lula’s PT also raised its bench, from 56 to 68. With the drop in performance of other parties on the left, however, in particular the PSB, its historical arc of alliances also remained stagnant, in about a quarter of the 513 seats.

The party composition in the Chamber is of paramount importance for any ruler. In addition to being the House that initiates possible impeachment proceedings, it is also there that most of the projects of interest to the Planalto Palace begin.

In the Senate, a similar phenomenon occurred. The so-called root Bolsonarism was strengthened, with the election, for example, of Marcos Pontes (SP), former Minister of Science and Technology, and of Magno Malta (ES), but an exchange of subtitles has already led Rodrigo’s PSD Pacheco (MG), today in Lula’s orbit, surpassing the PL bench, 15 to 13.

The first real tests of Lula’s base in Congress will take place this Wednesday, with the election of the House and Senate presidencies, especially the latter, in which Pacheco, supported by Lula, is running for re-election against Bolsonarist Rogério Marinho (PL-RN). ).

Senator Rogério Carvalho (PT-SE) claims that the score for the Senate presidency is not the same as the score for support for the government, and that the senators who vote for Marinho will not necessarily be in the opposition.

“It is not the vote for president that indicates who will or who will not be the governing base. That is not what defines it. The election is a much more restricted space. It is the direction of the Legislative Power”, he says.

As soon as the legislative year begins, this Thursday (2), other tests will come.

There are 27 provisional measures in the queue for analysis, 20 of them edited by Bolsonaro.

Among the themes of these measures are the one that sets the minimum wage at R$ 1,302, the one that maintains the Brazil Aid at R$ 600, the one that extends the fuel exemption and the one that increases the number of ministries from 23 to 37.

In addition, the Chamber and Senate also have the analysis of 24 presidential vetoes in the queue for this beginning of the Legislature.

Three MPs are considered crucial in this test, since, according to parliamentarians, it is on them that the greatest chances of betrayal and defeat for the government fall.

They are the ones that reestablish the casting vote within the scope of Carf, the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (MP 1,160/23), the one that transfers the Coaf (Financial Activities Council) from the Central Bank to the Ministry of Finance (MP 1,158/ 23) and the one that extinguished Funasa, which is the National Health Foundation (MP 1,156/23).

These are the MPs most likely to have parliamentarians from the center and right parties attracted to Lula’s base demonstrate in practice some dissatisfaction.

After the distribution of ministries, the government has negotiated with parties the allocation of politicians to second and third level positions. These definitions must also be guided by the degree of adhesion of the acronyms to the government during these votes.